July 2, 2009

Free Agency - The Backup

“The Backup” sounds like a bad parody of the movie “The Hangover” but it’s the tag that belongs to whoever rides the pine behind Luongo. That being said, it’s not a tag many goaltenders want to bear because that tag comes with the expectation of probably as few as 10 games during the regular season and the unfortunate expectation of being a benchwarmer.

Jason Labarbera has already left via free agency and is now a member of the Coyotes, and Sanford is not likely to sign with the Canucks. In the event that Luongo signs a contract extension the smart thing would be to package Schneider away in a deal for a top 6 forward, or anything, so long as his value isn’t waste down on the farm. Barring Luongo playing all 82 games, the Canucks are going to need a backup.

This year’s draft crop of goalies was week, and it looks like the free agent pool of affordable, potential back up netminders is nearly just as dry. With that being said though, there are some interesting possibilities out there for the Canucks to explore which might be better than either Sanford or Labarbera. The short list of backups on my free agent wish list is: Antero Niittymaki, Marc Denis, Kevin Weekes, and Stephen Valiquette.

The likelihood of Niitymaki taking a backseat to Luongo is slim, but as a free agent available for backup he would be my first choice if the Canucks played a goalie that didnt shoulder a 70+ game load. Between Denis and Valiquette I’m sure the Canucks can find a solid back up. Kevin Weekes’ performance in relief of Brodeur will likely warrant him a large pay increase which puts him out of the price range the Canucks will be looking in.

Denis proved in Columbus that he was able to be the starter and if called upon to play only 15 games I think he would shine. His price tag is low and the Canucks can use all the cap space they can get towards defence and offence. Valiquette is another possible option for the Canucks. He’s at the younger end of the goalies in this year’s free agent pool and at 6 foot 5 he’s a big body to fill the net.

Both Valiquette and Denis come in the same price bracket as Sanford/Labarbera so as a substitute they would make great replacements and fit in with the Canucks cap space. With all that in mind, the goalie issue is probably about 6 months premature though as it all hinges on Luongo and his decision on the future.

July 2, 2009

Luongo named to Team Canada 2010 Orientation Camp

Not surprisingly, Roberto Luongo was named today to Team Canada’s 2010 Orientation Camp.

Here is the complete camp roster (via Hockey Canada):

Goaltenders

Martin Brodeur (Montreal, Que./New Jersey, NHL)
Marc-André Fleury (Sorel, Que./Pittsburgh, NHL)
Roberto Luongo (Montreal, Que./Vancouver, NHL)
Steve Mason (Oakville, Ont./Columbus, NHL)
Cam Ward (Sherwood Park, Alta./Carolina, NHL)

Defensemen

François Beauchemin (Sorel, Que./Anaheim, NHL)
Jay Bouwmeester (Edmonton, Alta./Calgary, NHL)
Dan Boyle (Ottawa, Ont./San Jose, NHL)
Brent Burns (Ajax, Ont./Minnesota, NHL)
Drew Doughty (London, Ont./Los Angeles, NHL)
Mike Green (Calgary, Alta./Washington, NHL)
Dan Hamhuis (Smithers, B.C./Nashville, NHL)
Duncan Keith (Penticton, B.C./Chicago, NHL)
Scott Niedermayer (Cranbrook, B.C./Anaheim, NHL)
Dion Phaneuf (Edmonton, Alta./Calgary, NHL)
Chris Pronger (Dryden, Ont./Philadelphia, NHL)
Robyn Regehr (Rosthern, Sask./Calgary, NHL)
Stéphane Robidas (Sherbrooke, Que./Dallas, NHL)
Brent Seabrook (Tsawwassen, B.C./Chicago, NHL)
Marc Staal (Thunder Bay, Ont./N.Y. Rangers, NHL)
Shea Weber (Sicamous, B.C./Nashville, NHL)

Forwards

Jeff Carter (London, Ont./Philadelphia, NHL)
Dan Cleary (Carbonear, N.L./Detroit, NHL)
Sidney Crosby (Cole Harbour, N.S./Pittsburgh, NHL)
Shane Doan (Halkirk, Alta./Phoenix, NHL)
Simon Gagné (Ste-Foy, Que./Philadelphia, NHL)
Ryan Getzlaf (Regina, Sask./Anaheim, NHL)
Dany Heatley (Calgary, Alta./Ottawa, NHL)
Jarome Iginla (St. Albert, Alta./Calgary, NHL)
Vincent Lecavalier (ÃŽle-Bizard, Que./Tampa Bay, NHL)
Milan Lucic (Vancouver, B.C./Boston, NHL)
Patrick Marleau (Aneroid, Sask./San Jose, NHL)
Andy McDonald (Strathroy, Ont./St. Louis, NHL)
Brenden Morrow (Carlyle, Sask./Dallas, NHL)
Rick Nash (Brampton, Ont./Columbus, NHL)
Corey Perry (Peterborough, Ont./Anaheim, NHL)
Michael Richards (Kenora, Ont./Philadelphia, NHL)
Derek Roy (Rockland, Ont./Buffalo, NHL)
Joe Sakic (Burnaby, B.C./Colorado, NHL)
Patrick Sharp (Thunder Bay, Ont./Chicago, NHL)
Ryan Smyth (Banff, Alta./Colorado, NHL)
Martin St-Louis (Laval, Que./Tampa Bay, NHL)
Eric Staal (Thunder Bay, Ont./Carolina, NHL)
Jordan Staal (Thunder Bay, Ont./Pittsburgh, NHL)
Joe Thornton (St. Thomas, Ont./San Jose, NHL)
Jonathan Toews (Winnipeg, Man./Chicago, NHL

July 2, 2009

The devils he knew

The more I absorb the contracts handed out to this year’s group of unrestricted free agents, the more I appreciate the Sedins’ new contract. Committing a combined $61 million over the next 5 years to Henrik and Daniel isn’t peanuts, except when compared to some of the massive terms handed out to lesser players.

I’m glad Mike Gillis got this deal done. If the Sedins had walked, Gillis would have been faced with a complete rebuild of the Canucks’ top line. If it had come to that, his options would have been limited - he either has to anoint the likes of Ryan Kesler, Alex Burrows, Steve Bernier, Cody Hodgson and Michael Grabner as top line forwards, or dole out bigger money, bigger-term contracts to unrestricted free agents.

To be sure, look at some of the contracts handed out to potential Sedin replacements (all numbers via TSN): Michael Cammalleri - 5 years/$30 million, Brian Gionta - 5 years/$25 million, Marian Gaborik - 5 years/$37.5 million, Marian Hossa - 12 years/$62 million and Martin Havlat - 6 years/$30 million and Nik Antropov - 4 years/$16 million. These guys are good, but whether it’s their durability or consistency, each one has a question mark attached to them; on the other hand, the Sedins have proven since the lockout that they are both.

In the end, Gillis chose to dance with the devils he knew. Seeing now how much it would have cost him otherwise, it looks like he made the right choice.

July 1, 2009

Free Agency - Canucks Wish List

The Free Agent frenzy underway, Canucks fans are waiting with baited breath to see what Gillis’ next move will be. After making a small move and grabbing Aaron Rome formerly of Columbus for 550,000 for one year, Gillis is playing smart. He’s courting Free Agents that can handle waiting a day or two before signing their lives away a la Hossa to the tune of 12 years 60 million.

Gillis’ plan involves getting younger, getting faster, and as is always the case, increasing scoring. The Canucks now need to find a top 4 defenseman and top 6 forward. So what are the options that are affordable?

Gaborik is the most coveted remaining free agent and if the rumours are true he wants to don the Blue and white with green trim next season. No amount of money could have kept him in Minnesota and his ties to Demitra make Vancouver the favourite to pick him up. Based on Gaborik’s previous price tag of 7.5 million that would leave the Canucks with little cap room to work and pick up that top 4 defenceman.

Gaborik is likely to sign for less if it’s a longer termed deal, which would allow the Canucks to splash into the defense pool, but either way the Canucks are going to run close to the cap this year. When it comes to defenseman I like the look of 2 players in particular: Francois Beauchemin and Marc-Andre Bergeron.

Both players’ price tags were $1.6 million last year, and while in for perhaps a raise, they would not hinder the Canucks chances of signing that all important top 6 forward. Beachemin and Bergeron are 29 and 28 respectively so they would give back a few years to the blue line. Beauchemin also has a shot as mind blowing as Salo and Edler - having a third cannon from the point would be a huge bonus. Bergeron can skate and is a good puck moving defenseman. He’s more offensive than Ohlund, and while he comes with a few defensive flaws, that’s something that can be fixed the same way O’Brien fixed his game.

If the Canucks can’t afford Gaborik, a cheaper plan B sniper would be Maxim Afinogenov assuming Buffalo chooses to pass on him. If the Canucks can’t pick up Gaborik I would be extremely happy to see them pick up Ales Kotalik. He only played 19 games last season amounting 7 goals and 11 points, but as a third man to play with the Sedins he would be a great fit. Kotalik and Afinogenov both have speed to play with the Sedins and that would allow Burrows to play on the second line with Kesler and (hopefully) Sundin. The other thing that’s nice about Max and Alex, they’re shoot first snipers. Goes well with the Sedins cycling and passing.

The Canucks holes right now are that scoring forward and top 4 defenseman. Gillis isn’t rushing to make any signings, but he’s a smart man and he’s proved that so far. He’s yet to make his mark on this team, and the future of Mats Sundin does impact what other needs the Canucks might have, but for the time being Beauchemin would be a brilliant pick up, and any of the aforementioned forwards would be good fits with the twins.

July 1, 2009

Aaron Rome is the new Rob Davison

The Canucks made their first signing this free agent season by inking defenseman Aaron Rome to a one-year, one-way deal worth $525,000. Rome has spent the last couple of years in the Columbus Blue Jackets organization, but only played in 25 NHL games.

No doubt this is a depth move a la last year’s Rob Davison signing, though at only 25 years old, perhaps there’s potential for Rome to stick longer with the Canucks.

Here’s his Hockey Futures profile:

Rome is a self-described stay at home defenseman who can add a little offense. He is a strong skater with great positioning and solid puck-handling and passing skills. With his exceptional vision and awareness he can anticipate the play. His offensive game and shot from the point has improved as he has seen increased powerplay time. He can be physical when necessary and plays with a bit of an edge.

July 1, 2009

Markus, Trevor, the Steamer… and the Sedins?

With the Sedins now locked up for another 5 years with a no-movement clause - a contract term that will take them to 14 years of service with the Vancouver Canucks - it may be time to start paying attention to where they stand among the franchise’s all-time leading scorers.

CANUCKS FRANCHISE LEADER IN POINTS

CANUCKS FRANCHISE LEADER IN GOALS

CANUCKS FRANCHISE LEADER IN ASSISTS

In fact, the Sedins only need to average 60 points per season for the next 5 seasons to catch up to Markus Naslund as the franchise’s all-time leading scorer. Considering both have been almost point-per-game players since the lockout - Henrik has averaged 0.96 P/G and Daniel has averaged 0.95 P/G - that’s not much of a stretch. (*knock on wood*)

Henrik is 64 assists shy of Trevor Linden’s franchise-high 415 career assists. For what it’s worth, Henrik has averaged 64 assists/season in the last 3 seasons; it’s certainly possible for him to catch up to Trevor this season.

Daniel has his work cut out for him to catch up to Markus Naslund’s franchise-high 346 career goals. He’s 165 goals back, and thus would need to average 33 goals in each of the next 5 seasons to catch to him during the term of this contract. What is probably more within reach is the franchise-lead in powerplay goals scored (Daniel has 67 PPG, Markus’ franchise mark is 114), game-winning goals (Daniel has 36 GWG, Markus’ franchise mark is 49), and overtime goals (Daniel has 7 OT goals, Brendan Morrison’s franchise mark is 9).

Rightly or wrongly, I know Canucks fans have had a hard time accepting the Sedins as elite-level players. I wonder if this changes if they catch up to - and surpass - Markus’, Trevor’s and the Steamer’s franchise records.

July 1, 2009

Sedins ink 5 year $30.5 Million Extension

In what has been an up and down drama all week Canucks fans can rest easy for the rest of the day. The tough work is done for now. After the Sedin’s accepted a 5 year 30.5 million dollar offer to come back as Canucks the collective remainder of Canuck nation heaved a giant sigh heard echoing through downtown.

The Sedins had originally wanted a 12 year deal and it looks like Gillis won on that front getting them to stick to a 5 year deal. The cost was a larger cap hit which borders my comfort level with what I thought they should have gotten, but the bottom line is that without them the Canucks would have had a harder time replacing them.

This means the rebuild is still a few years away. Gillis has managed to keep the core intact at a relatively cost effective cap hit. The Sedins can only get better and if they improve upon their 82 point seasons and break the 90 point barrier, this deal is going to look genius. Gillis has already started to put a stamp on this team and I have a feeling we’re one big dip into free agency away from seeing what the Mike Gillis Canucks really look like.

What this all means is the Canucks now have approximately $9.5 million dollars in cap space to play around, based on the assumption Corey Schneider and his 1.084 million in the last year of his contract. The Canucks still need a top 6 forward and a top 4 defenseman at the top of their list. Burrows was a great triplet for the Twins next year, but they need someone else, and the void left by Ohlund is a bit bigger than anyone thinks.

June 30, 2009

The offer sheet option

The new compensation levels for signing restricted free agents (RFA) are in. Via HF Boards:

$994,433 or below - No compensation
Over $994,433 to $1,506,717 - 3rd round pick
Over $1,506,717 to $3,013,433 - 2nd round pick
Over $3,013,433 to $4,520,150 - 1st round pick and 3rd round pick
Over $4,520,150 to $6,026,867 - 1st round pick, 2nd round pick and 3rd round pick
Over $6,026,867 to $7,533,584 - Two 1st round picks, 2nd round pick and 3rd round pick
Over $7,533,584 - Four 1st round picks

Because these compensation levels are based on average player salaries, unlike the salary cap which is based on league revenues, they can move from year-to-year even if revenues (and thus, the cap) stay flat.

Before Canucks fans start salivating at the thought of sending an offer sheet to Cam Barker, Phil Kessel, Jiri Hudler and Ryan Clowe - all of whom play for teams that are close to the cap - I should mention now that the Canucks don’t have their 2nd round pick for next season. They traded it to Buffalo (along with a 2009 3rd round pick) for Steve Bernier. What this means is that unless the offer sheet for these players is under $1,506,717 or greater than $3,013,433, then it’s simply not possible to acquire them. I doubt they sign for under the lower amount; and if they sign for the higher amount then the compensation starts to include multiple draft picks (and even multiple 1st round draft picks). Dollar-wise, these players may well be worth what they get; but are they worth losing draft picks as well?

June 30, 2009

Free Agency - The Smaller Name Players

There are several smaller name players in the Canucks game who have equal importance to the team. This season the Canucks had depth they haven’t had before which proved beneficial in the long run and something that they should attempt to maintain, if the price is right.

In particular there are RFAs Wellwood, O’Brien, Hansen, and UFAs Davison, Baumgartner, Vaananen, and Jaffray. Wellwood knows which side his bread is buttered and I don’t think he’s the type of player to hold out and make a scene, and if he was Gillis would drive him to the airport. Hansen provides a 3rd/4th line depth which is badly needed, and will likely see a lot more time on the ice this and less time in the box since Pyatt is headed out the door.

O’Brien was a smart pickup by Gillis. I like the kid. He’s learned a lot, and has a lot more to learn, but his development as a player took leaps and bounds and that was clear just in the noticeable difference in his play from the first half to the end of the second half. He’s a solid #5 defenceman, and much better than Lukas Krajicek. He’s young, he’s developed a lot and can only get better, and heck he even got a goal (albeit in the post season leaving his regular season total at zero). I see him re-signing for the same money he made last year 1.025 million, no reason to let him walk.

Of the UFAs perhaps the most important to keep outside of the Sedins in the aforementioned is Jason Jaffray. He was a key player in the Moose’s post season run this past off season and I have a feeling he’s ready to make the jump to the NHL. He’s a good prospect and letting him walk would be a bigger loss than you’d think. Jaffray would be a cheap signing and provides that extra depth should the Canucks need a 3rd or 4th liner at any point in the season.

Davison, Baumgartner, and Vaananen are the depth our blue line needs. With Salo who’s always likely to go down, and Bieksa who’s had injuries flare up, the Canucks could use a little blue line insurance. I’d say if at all possible signing at least 2 of the 3 would be a priority just for some piece of mind when we lose Salo unexpectedly for 6 weeks at a time.

Other free agents of note are Labarbera and Sanford. Sanford will likely walk after being given the shaft in favour of Labarbera which begs the question of whether Labarbera is willing to play second fiddle to Luongo to the tune of approximately 12-15 games during the year. Labarbera was given a starters position in LA and if he’s not willing to sit quietly at the end of the bench the Canucks might have to look to bringing in another goalie, or using Schneider in the last year of his pro contract as the back up.

Either way, tomorrow is going to be the busiest day of the NHL season to date and is sure to boast big news and a few shocks.

June 30, 2009

Less than 24 hours left for compromise

If Jack Bauer can save the world in 24 hours, surely Mike Gillis and the Sedins can compromise on a contract extension in the same time frame.

Right?

Some of the negotiation details that were leaked out in the past week are sketchy, but I’ll try my best to sift through them and determine where Gillis and the Sedins can compromise.

• The Sedins’ proposal was for identical, 12-year/$64 million contracts for each twin (front loaded in the amount of $43 million in the first 5 years); the cap hit works out to about $5.25 million each. (Jason Botchford, Vancouver Province)
• The Sedins have previously talked about leaving the NHL early and finishing their careers in Sweden. (Aftonbladet via Dobber Hockey)
• Mike Gillis wants to keep the cap hit at around $5.5 million at a term of around 5 years. (Iain MacIntyre, Vancouver Sun)
• Mike Gillis is as concerned about real dollars as he is about cap hit. (Tony Gallagher, Vancouver Province)

So what does this all mean?

Assuming the first 5 years of the Sedins’ contract proposal is evenly distributed, this works out to $8.6 million per season during the first part of that contract. Because of the way the current CBA works, the contract amounts cannot be lowered by more than $4.3 million from year to year. With $21 million due in the last 7 years of the contract, it’s possible it was structured so that the Sedins are due $5 million in year 6, $3 million in years 7 to 11, and $1 million in year 12. If they intend to retire by, say, age 36 (year 7 of the contract), then perhaps they are in actuality looking at a contract worth around $50 million over 7 years - an annual salary close to their market value and at a term that will take them to retirement (with the remaining years tacked on to get to Gillis’ ideal cap hit). From here, it’s easier to see the difference between the Sedins and Gillis’ original position of $27.5 million over 5 years ($5.5 million per season).

I know I used a lot of assumptions in this post, but the logic would remain the same regadless. If the gap between the two parties is $22.5 million in real dollars and an extra 2 years in term, can they bridge it before tomorrow? Are they willing to split the difference? Is $40 million over 7 years enough to get it done?

The clock is ticking.