President’s Trophy Winner: 30% Chance of Cup. Sixth Seed or Lower: Pretty Much Zero.

11 Responses

  1. mikev says:

    so, 70% odds of winning the cup without the president’s trophy. i like those odds even better

  2. Brother-K says:

    I don’t think you understand statistics or math.

  3. CC says:

    The observed probabilities are (approximately) as follows:

    30% if President’s trophy winner
    10% if top team in the other conference
    17% if second in conference (two teams fit this description)
    3% if third in conference (two teams)
    7% if fourth in conference (two teams)
    3% if fifth in conference (two teams)
    0% if any other team
    ===
    (30%+10%+2*17%+2*3%+2*7%+2*3%) = 100%

    Now, this is a small sample-size, so there is variability that causes strangeness in the data (for instance, you shouldn’t really believe that finishing 2nd in the non-President’s Trophy conference is better than finishing first in that conference!); however, given the above probabilities, where would you want your team to finish to have the best chance of winning the cup?

  4. phenylalanine says:

    Oh man, this made me LOL for real. Never change Internet, never change.

  5. Reed Botwright says:

    Just because your team doesn’t win the President’s Trophy, doesn’t mean you suddenly have a greater chance of winning the Cup. In fact, if you look at individual percentages based on seeding you would find that the President’s Trophy winner has by far the greatest chance to win. I’ll take 30% for #1 overall versus 8% for finishing 5th, or 0% for anything lower because no one has won with lower than 5th based on these numbers.

  6. Bart Byl says:

    What? The average playoff team has a 1 in 16 chance on winning the Cup. Therefore, if you miss the playoffs, you have a 15 in 16 chance of winning the Cup. Think about it.

  7. buster says:

    On the other hand, since the 85-86 season, there’s a 21% chance that the president’s trophy winner will be eliminated in the first round. That being said, I believe the Canucks will get passed the first round. Although stats can be interesting they don’t mean much. People can look at the data and turn it into whatever they want.

  8. chiroken says:

    That 70% odd of winning without the president’s trophy has to be split between the other 15 playoff teams….leaves you with 4 1/2% chance. You still good with it? lol

  9. Bart Byl says:

    No, no, each of the 15 teams has a 70% chance. There’s 11.25 Cups awarded each year, remember?

  1. February 7, 2011

    […] This post was mentioned on Twitter by Phil, Bart Byl. Bart Byl said: President’s Trophy winner: 30% chance of Cup. Sixth seed or lower: pretty much zero. http://t.co/UuOYagM […]

  2. April 1, 2011

    […] Trophy sets the team up for a lengthy playoff run. A couple of months ago, Bart posted that the President’s Trophy winner has won the Stanley Cup 30% of the time. (Obviously, the odds decrease for the lower seeds.) The fact is, the Canucks will have home ice […]

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