Out-of-Town Notebook: 2011/2012 Season Predictions and Prognostications

After more than a month of review, analysis, and rankings, it’s time to predict what will actually happen in the upcoming NHL season.

If you take all things into consideration, one thing becomes abundantly clear – parity. No team is very strong at each position (coach, goalie, defence, forward), and most teams are only a shade better or worse than another.

It looks like all the same teams that made the playoffs last year have a good chance of making it again this year. As we’ve discussed though, it’s rare that there’s so little change in the standings from year-to-year. Injuries therefore will be the biggest factor in determining who plays on in April and who doesn’t.

This time last year I predicted Boston as the Stanley Cup champion. Read on to find out this year’s predicted winner:

 Western Conference

1. Vancouver 110-115 points
2. Anaheim 105-110
3. Nashville 100-105
4. Chicago 100-105
5. San Jose 90-95
6. Detroit 90-95
7. St. Louis 90-95
8. Los Angeles 90-95
9. Calgary 80-85
10. Edmonton 75-80
11. Colorado 70-75
12. Dallas 70-75
13. Phoenix 70-75
14. Minnesota 65-70
15. Columbus 55-60

Notes on the above:

• Surprisingly, I have the Predators rated the best team in the Conference (based on very strong goaltending, defence and coaching scores). Nashville plays in a brutally tough division though. Vancouver plays in the weakest division in the league, and that should lead them to another 1st place showing.
• I have Chicago, LA and Vancouver rated roughly the same. I don’t have a non-playoff team rated anywhere near the top-8 teams in the West.
• Could be significantly better than they’re ranked: San Jose (if Niemi plays a full season like his half-season last year); Colorado (if the kids are healthy and Varlamov is a legit goalie); St. Louis (if Halak is healthy and the youth take the next step).
• Could be significantly worse than they’re ranked: Anaheim (if any of their core gets hurt they have very little depth); Detroit (if Jimmy Howard is only adequate and age catches up to the team); Phoenix (if their goaltending is as weak as expected).
• Could miss the playoffs: Their division is so tough, a slow start or injury troubles could kill St. Louis, Detroit, Chicago or Nashville’s playoff chances.
• Could make the playoffs with some luck: Calgary (if Mikka Kiprusof has some magic left, Iginla stays healthy and they incredibly find some secondary scoring).

 Eastern Conference

1. Washington 110-115
2. Boston 105-110
3. Pittsburgh 105-110
4. Philadelphia 100-105
5. Buffalo 100-105
6. Montreal 90-95
7. NY Rangers 90-95
8. Tampa Bay 85-90
9. New Jersey 80-85
10. Toronto 80-85
11. Carolina 75-80
12. NY Islanders 70-75
13. Winnipeg 70-75
14. Ottawa 60-65
15. Florida 55-60

Notes on the above:

• Pittsburgh is the highest rated team in the Conference, but its close between them, Boston and Washington. Given the weakness of Washington’s division, the Capitals are likely to take first place.
• I think the travel schedule of teams in the Southeast Division will have a negative impact on how those teams compete in the standings.  
• Could be significantly better than they’re ranked: New York Rangers (depends how the kids progress and if Brad Richards performs); New Jersey (depends on Martin Brodeur, Adam Larsson and Mattias Tedenby); New York Islanders (if they get any goaltending they could be in the playoff mix).
• Could be significantly worse than they’re ranked: Toronto (Corporately, Brian Burke has to get his team into the playoffs this year. The team is awfully young and inexperienced though); Montreal (if Carey Price goes down look out); Tampa Bay (similar to Montreal, they cannot afford a Dwayne Roloson injury).
• Could miss the playoffs if things don’t gel right: Philadelphia (Chris Pronger’s injury prone, no one really knows what Jaromir Jagr will do and the kids are still kids).
• Could make the playoffs with some luck: Carolina (great goaltending, okay defence and Eric Staal is an elite player).

Other fearless predictions for the upcoming season:

• Conference Finals: Washington over Pittsburgh in the East; Chicago over Nashville in the West
• Stanley Cup Final: Chicago over Washington
• Chicago plays Vancouver in the playoffs for the fourth consecutive year.
• Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin combine to play 120 games this year. Only one of them is available come playoff time.
• With the Toronto Maple Leafs not making the playoffs, Brian Burke removes himself from the GM position and takes his place as President of the hockey club.
• Phil Kessel is rumoured to be traded all year.
• Jaromir Jagr is the most entertaining thing about the new season of HBO 24/7.
• Lou Lamoriello retires at the end of the season. So does Martin Brodeur, Niklas Lidstrom, Teemu Selanne and Jaime Langenbrunner.
• The Predators do not trade or re-sign Shea Weber, leaving him a UFARFA for 2012-13.
• The NHL and NHLPA do not come to terms on a new Collective Bargaining Agreement.
• The Philadelphia Phillies win the World Series over the New York Yankees. Derek Jeter, Jorge Posada and Mariano Rivera promptly retire.
• Teemu Selanne, Jaromir Jagr and Jarome Iginla fail to score 30 goals.
• James Neal, Taylor Hall, John Tavares and Tyler Seguin each score 30 goals.
• A year after her divorce, a Christina Aguilera sex tape is leaked online.
• The War Horse marks the beginning of the end of Steven Speilberg’s career as a director. It’s awful.
• Will and Jada Pinkett-Smith do divorce after all.
• Slash does not appear on stage with Guns N’ Roses at their Rock and Roll Hall of Fame induction ceremony.
• The Toronto Blue Jays bid on Prince Fielder.
• There is another recession.
• Game of Thrones sets new viewing records for HBO.
• Only Two Broke Girls, The New Girl and Prime Suspect earn a second TV season on a major US television network.
• The Office without Steve Carrell is terrible.
• Gabriel Landeskog is the highest scoring rookie. Nino Niederrater wins the Calder Trophy.
• Alex Ovechkin wins the Art Ross and is the only player to crack 100 points.
• Jonathan Toews wins the Hart.
• Shea Weber wins the Norris.
• Roberto Luongo wins the Vezina.
• Tuukka Rask replaces Tim Thomas as Bruin starter at some point this season.
• Shane Doan is traded from Phoenix at his request.
• Jose Theodore is traded by Florida at the trade deadline.
• It’s all but confirmed the Phoenix Coyotes will play in Quebec City starting in 2014.
• The Blue Jackets’ Scott Arniel is the first coach fired. Ron Wilson is next, and whoever replaces Ron Wilson spurs the Leafs to a late-season playoff charge.
• Coldplay’s new album is considered a disappointment.
• Brendan Shanahan is forced (allegedly) to resign as NHL disciplinarian.
• Teemu Selanne is hurt and can’t play in Winnipeg in December.
• To the financial benefit of the NHL there is no NBA season.