J.J. Guerrero

Founder and Executive Editor of Canucks Hockey Blog. Proud Canadian, hardcore Canucks fan. I would like nothing more than watching the Canucks win the Stanley Cup. Against the Leafs.

NHL CBA: Fans, Raise Your Voice

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Sep 022012
 

Lost in the rhetoric and the finger-pointing in the NHL’s and NHLPA’s battle for their share of $3.3 billion are perhaps the voices that matter the most: ours, the fans.

It’s no secret what the league thinks of our unbridled passion and loyalty for the game.

It’s no secret that Gary Bettman fully expects us to come back again, even after him and the rest of the league decide to shut down the game we love for the third time in 18 years, all three times under his watch.

It’s pretty apparent that they don’t care about appearing greedy, cancelling games for “economic reasons” despite trumpeting 7 years of record revenue growth and signing players to career-long, $100-million contracts just a couple of months ago.

Frankly, it’s insulting.

Now, just because the fans don’t have a direct say in this process, it doesn’t mean we have to stay mute.

After all, at the end of the day, this boils down to billionaires and millionaires fighting over our money. Our money. Our money. What we pay in tickets, concessions, Center Ice subscriptions, jerseys and merchandise.

If you think cancelling games would be wrong, let the league know. If you think owners and players need to learn to share and get along for the greater good of the game, let them know. If you think a third Gary Bettman lockout will turn you off the game for good, then you best damn well raise your voice and let them know you won’t be coming back.

Gary is right about one thing. Hockey fans are the greatest and most passionate fans out there. But there is a difference between being passionate and being played for patsies.

NHL CBA: Sharing is Caring

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Aug 202012
 

While announcing that the NHL owners had turned down the NHLPA’s CBA proposal, Gary Bettman said the following:

“I think it’s fair to say that we value the proposal and what it means in terms of its economics differently than the players’ association does,” said Bettman. “I think there still are a number of issues where we’re looking at the world differently. I’m not sure that there has yet been a recognition of the economics in our world — and I mean the greater world and the sports industry, taking into account what recently happened with the NFL and the NBA.”

Bettman, of course, is referring to the NFL’s and NBA’s recently-negotiated CBAs, both of which reduced the players’ share of revenues. The NFL reduced the players’ share of all league revenues from 60% to 48%; the NBA reduced the players’ share of basketball-related income (BRI) from 57% to 51.5%. Looking at these and keeping in mind the NHL’s first proposal included an almost 20% reduction in players’ share of HRR from 57% to 46%, it’s easy to understand why he would reference them. The owners want to pay less in players costs and keep more of their revenues. Fair enough.

But the reduction in players’ share of revenues is only one component in the NFL’s and NBA’s CBAs. Conveniently, Bettman seems to ignore that both CBAs also address the economic reality of their respective leagues. That is, in both the NFL and NBA, there is an increasingly-widening gap between large-revenue teams and low-revenue teams, and their respective CBAs address this by transferring money from large-revenue teams to assist low-revenue teams – or revenue sharing.

It’s no secret that one of the biggest, fundamental issues facing the NHL these days is that several NHL markets are having trouble generating enough revenue to keep up with rising player costs. Because the players’ share is linked to league revenues, as long as league revenues are rising, the players’ share (i.e. the salary cap) will rise along with it. Under the current CBA, annual league revenues have risen to $3.3 billion; alongside it, the players’ share – 57% – have also increased to $1.89 billion.

In the NHL however, the rise in league revenues is driven mainly by large-revenue teams like the Leafs, Rangers, Habs, Canucks, Wings, Bruins, Blackhawks and Flyers. These teams can easily afford an increase in player costs. On the other hand, teams on the opposite end of the revenue spectrum – teams like the Blue Jackets, Coyotes, Predators and Panthers – whose revenue growth can’t keep pace with those of the big boys’, quite simply can’t.

If this sounds familiar, it’s because it is. The NFL went through the same song and dance during their CBA negotiations last year. I won’t go into a lot of detail here, but Blogging the Boys had covered the subject very well here, here and here. Teams like the Cowboys, Redskins and the Patriots generate much higher revenues than teams like the Jaguars and the Vikings. To address this gap, the NFL shares about 75% of its $9.5 billion annual revenue, including all of its broadcast TV and radio revenue, all NFL licensing and merchandising, and a portion of local ticket revenues, equally among its 32 teams. They also have a supplementary revenue sharing (SRS) pool that intends to subsidize the low-revenue teams and further close the gap between haves and have-nots. With revenue sharing, all 32 teams are on relatively-equal footing financially, are able to sign top talent, and can field competitive teams. Regardless of your thoughts on parity, you can’t argue its role in the NFL’s overall success.

Even the NBA has acknowledged the need for its large-revenue teams to share with the low-revenue ones. During their CBA negotiations last year, they agreed to an expanded revenue sharing program. Previously-funded exclusively by luxury tax revenues, the expanded program now includes a contribution from all teams based on their total revenues and it’s expected to triple the amount of money being shared. (Now if they can only rid itself of the soft cap and the numerous cap exceptions they have.)

For their part, the NHL proposed to reduce the players’ share of HRR to 46% – to $1.518 billion – to help their low-revenue teams. But while this may help in the short-term, it doesn’t address the league’s fundamental revenue gap issue. Large-revenue teams will inevitably drive revenue growth, and in a few years, players costs will be back to where it is now. Assuming the annual average revenue growth remains constant at 7.1%, league revenues will reach $4.1 billion around the 2015/2016 season, which means, by then, the players’ share will be back to $1.89 billion. Without more meaningful revenue sharing – by that, I mean more meaningful than the current 4.5% of HRR under the current CBA – the gap between have and have-not teams will likely be wider than they’ve ever been and the same teams in trouble now will be in trouble again later.

In the NHLPA’s proposal, not only did they concede the hard cap and a lower share of HRR, they also proposed to put the potential money saved in players costs towards a more meaningful revenue sharing program. By proposing this, IMHO the NHLPA recognizes the NHL’s economic reality. I’m not sure the NHL does.

NHL CBA: The Players Are Doing Their Part

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Aug 152012
 

After the NHL presented its first CBA proposal back on July 13 – an offer which would have rolled back players salaries to levels of a decade ago and removed much of their bargaining rights – many were wondering how the NHLPA would respond. Yesterday, the NHLPA finally responded and presented its alternate proposal. At first glance, it seems to begin to address the league’s concerns, and as gloomy as negotiations looked about a month ago, today there’s a hint of optimism in the air as Gary Bettman and the owners sounded intrigued in some of the proposal’s components.

The full details of the proposal haven’t been released, but it’s been reported that it includes: keeping the current cap system intact, lowering the players’ share of hockey-related revenue (HRR), and using their relinquished share to help fund a stronger revenue sharing program that benefits the small-revenue teams.

From Aaron Ward:

Based on the reported $3.3 billion in revenues in 2011/2012, and assuming the NHL maintains its 7.1% average revenue growth since the inception of the last CBA, here’s how the numbers project for the next 3 years (note these numbers are just pure guesstimates):

YearProjected RevenuesCurrent %Players salaries under current CBAProposed %Players salaries under NHLPA proposalContribution towards revenue sharing
2012/2013$3,534,300,00057%$2,024,190,0002% raise$1,927,800,000$96,390,000
2013/2014$3,785,235,30057%$2,167,907,4904% raise$2,004,912,000$162,995,490
2014/2015$4,053,987,00657%$2,321,828,9226% raise$2,125,206,720$196,622,202

Assuming the NHL maintains its 10% average revenue growth from the last couple of years:

YearProjected RevenuesCurrent %Players salaries under current CBAProposed %Players salaries under NHLPA proposalContribution towards revenue sharing
2012/2013$3,630,000,00057%$2,079,000,0002% raise$1,927,800,000$151,200,000
2013/2014$3,993,000,00057%$2,286,900,0004% raise$2,004,912,000$281,988,000
2014/2015$4,392,300,00057%$2,515,590,0006% raise$2,125,206,720$390,383,280

If you add up the last column in the first table – the difference between what the league would have paid out in salaries under the current system and what the NHLPA is proposing – that’s more than $450 million in salaries the players are foregoing potentially to help fund the NHL’s revenue sharing program. At 10% average revenue growth, that potential contribution totals more than $800 million.

Think that much revenue sharing would help the Panthers, Predators, Blue Jackets and Coyotes?

Essentially, the players have agreed to fund most of the revenue sharing program for the next 3 years while the NHL gets its financial house (i.e. its small-revenue teams’ financial house) stabilized before passing this responsibility back to the league (i.e. its large-revenue teams). By the option year (2015/2016), assuming revenue growth remains constant, league-wide revenues should be at $4.3 billion and a $250 million revenue sharing pool would account for less than 5% of it.

At least from the parts of it we know, it’s a smart, shrewd proposal. In it, the NHLPA doesn’t necessarily disagree with the NHL’s main contention that the league needs to be lowering its player costs (albeit it only proposes to do this temporarily). It keeps the cap the owners want and also directly addresses the league’s biggest problem, which is to figure out a way to help the have-not teams.

Maybe unexpectedly, the players have stepped up with some reasonable solutions and they certainly seem willing to do their part. The question is, are the owners?

(Update: 08/15/2012, 6:05 AM)

George Malik has a pretty exhaustive rundown of reaction to the NHLPA’s proposal over at Kukla’s Korner.

Shea Weber and Shattered Dreams

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Jul 192012
 

You can’t blame Canucks fans for obsessing over the possibility of Shea Weber coming to Vancouver. Besides being from BC and still holding strong ties here, he’s a legitimate no. 1 defenseman and a Norris Trophy candidate – basically, a defenseman the kind of which the Canucks have never had.

As an RFA this season and a UFA next season, Nashville’s options were limited. Presumably, the Predators had been trying to re-sign him, but from the looks of things, Weber didn’t seem too interested. He was free to sign an offer sheet with a team he liked, and if the Predators didn’t match, they would receive draft picks as compensation, hardly a suitable return for a player of his ilk. And if the offer sheet were for a one-year term, and if the Predators did match, they couldn’t trade him for the next year and Weber could walk away for nothing at the end of it. Like Dan Hamhuis did a couple of years ago and Ryan Suter did this year.

So I’m sure David Poile wasn’t pleased with last night’s bombshell the Philadelphia Flyers had signed him to a 14-year/$110 million offer sheet:


From Kyper, here’s the complete breakdown of the deal:

YearSalarySigning BonusTotal $Cap Hit
Year 1$1 mil$13 mil$14 mil$7.857 mil
Year 2$1 mil$13 mil$14 mil$7.857 mil
Year 3$1 mil$13 mil$14 mil$7.857 mil
Year 4$1 mil$13 mil$14 mil$7.857 mil
Year 5$4 mil$8 mil$12 mil$7.857 mil
Year 6$4 mil$8 mil$12 mil$7.857 mil
Year 7$6 mil$0$6 mil$7.857 mil
Year 8$6 mil$0$6 mil$7.857 mil
Year 9$6 mil$0$6 mil$7.857 mil
Year 10$6 mil$0$6 mil$7.857 mil
Year 11$3 mil$0$3 mil$7.857 mil
Year 12$1 mil$0$1 mil$7.857 mil
Year 13$1 mil$0$1 mil$7.857 mil
Year 14$1 mil$0$1 mil$7.857 mil
Total $$42 mil$68 mil$110 mil

To be frank, very few probably foresaw an offer sheet for big term and big bucks, if only because negotiating with Weber and getting him to sign on such terms would be akin to doing David Poile’s job for him. With the right to match, the 14-year term could guarantee Weber stays in Nashville for the rest of his career; with a reasonable cap hit, the only impediment would be whether or not they could come up with enough cash flow – $80 million in the first 6 years of the deal – to afford it. Really, if I’m David Poile, I don’t see any reason not to match the Flyers’ offer, except maybe if I could work out a trade with the Flyers in the next 7 days for several top-level players or prospects.

For those criticizing Mike Gillis or the Canucks for not being aggressive enough, consider these:

1) I doubt this is a money issue. Aquilini has shown time and again that he’s willing to buck up. Look at the big-money, long-term commitments he’s made to Luongo, the Sedins, Kesler, Hamhius, Bieksa, Ballard, Booth, Garrison, Schneider… the list goes on. Look at how much he’s willing to spend on depth NHL players while they’re playing in the AHL.

2) The Canucks could have thrown Weber a one-year offer sheet, but given the state of CBA negotiations, why would he sign on for one year and then have to negotiate a new contract under the new – and presumably more stringent – CBA next year?

3) The Canucks could have thrown Weber a multi-year offer sheet, but unlike the Flyers, the Canucks probably weren’t willing to risk that Nashville would simply match, and thus remove Weber from the market.

4) if the Predators were indeed shopping Weber’s rights, it’s hard to believe the Canucks would have been able to offer anywhere near the kind of return the Flyers, Rangers, Sharks (the other rumored suitors for Weber) are able to. The Canucks’ biggest trading chip would’ve been one of their goaltenders, which the Predators don’t need. After that, it’s probably Alex Edler, who is, like Weber would’ve been, a UFA next year. In comparison, the other teams could offer a package that potentially includes the likes of Taylor Hall, Sean Couturier, Braydon Coburn, Chris Kreider, Ryan McDonagh, Patrick Marleau or Joe Pavelski.

For the most optimistic of us, I suppose, given the Predators’ general financial environment and the Flyers’ willingness to trade even long-term deals, we could hope that Weber would someday be available via the trade market. In the meantime, the Canucks’ 42-year quest for a true no. 1 defenseman continues.

NHL CBA: The Fun Begins

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Jul 172012
 

While Tracy and I lucked out and bought our first place, a one-bedroom condo a few minutes east of Science World, before the Vancouver real estate market started to heat up, we, unfortunately, tried to sell it to move back to our new place in Surrey just as the financial crisis started to hit.

But while we conceded we wouldn’t be able to sell it for as much as we may have initially expected, nonetheless we had a good idea of its market value at the time and certainly expected to receive relatively fair offers.

As soon as we listed it, we received an offer for $60,000 – or 25% – less than our asking price – an offer we easily rejected as soon as it came in. His realtor asked if we had a counter-offer. We were so insulted by the initial offer that we didn’t bother with that particular buyer.

When the NHL and the NHLPA finally commenced their new CBA negotiations, both parties – at least publicly – said the right things about wanting to get a deal done and not missing any games.

But on Friday night, the NHL presented their first offer, which included:

  • Reducing the players’ share of hockey-related revenue (HRR) from 57% to 46%
  • Redefining what is included in HRR
  • Limiting contract lengths to 5 years
  • Eliminating signing bonuses
  • Eliminating salary arbitration
  • Extending length of entry-level contracts from 3 to 5 years
  • Raising eligibility for unrestricted free agency from 7 to 10 years

Considering league revenues increased from $2.2 billion to $3.3 billion since the last CBA was negotiated in 2005 – and not to mention the cordial tone in negotiations to date – you have to wonder why the NHL would start with such a low-ball offer. I suppose we’ll find out tomorrow when negotiations resume how insulted the NHLPA was and they respond.

In the meantime, here are some initial thoughts on the NHL’s offer:

  • It’s no secret NHL owners want a bigger share of the revenue pie. Now apparently, they also want to share a smaller pie.

  • If I’m the NHLPA, why wouldn’t I counter by asking for a 68% share of revenues with hopes of meeting in the middle?

  • Even before reducing the $3.3 billion revenue pie, a 20% reduction of the players’ share means reducing it from around $1.8 billion to $1.5 billion, and thus, also decreasing the salary cap from $70.2 million to around $58 million. Looking at CapGeek, almost half of the league – 13 teams – will have to shed players before next season starts. Obviously, if they do redefine – and reduce – HRR, then the players’ share – and the cap – goes further decreases as well.

  • While this would reset salaries, presumably to help teams the smaller revenue teams that can’t afford to spend $70+ million in player salaries, it doesn’t address the structural issue these teams face – that is, this move does not do anything to add to these teams’ revenues. For instance, what happens when league revenues (hopefully) inevitably hit $4 billion and the cap, using the current formula, is again near $70 million. In other words, it’s one thing for the Torontos, Montreals, New Yorks and Vancouvers of the league, who account for a significant portion of the overall league revenues, to make a boatload of money, but unless there’s more meaningful revenue sharing with the Floridas and Nashvilles, the smaller revenue teams will always be hard-pressed to meet the cap floor, never mind the ceiling.

  • For fun, if the NHL and NHLPA were to agree to give players a 51% share of revenues – which seems to be everyone’s guess as the NHL’s end goal – and don’t change what constitutes HRR, the cap would be pretty much the same as what it was in 2011/2012.

  • By limiting contract lengths to 5 years and eliminating signing bonuses, the NHL is obviously trying to put a stop to the cap circumvention deals handed out at first to the likes of Roberto Luongo, Ilya Kovalchuk and Marian Hossa. A couple of years ago, you could argue these deals favored the big market teams who could afford them. But last summer, the Columbus Blue Jackets gave James Wisniewksi a front-loaded 6-year/$33 million contract, and of course a couple of weeks ago the Minnesota Wild signed Zach Parise and Ryan Suter to matching 13-year/$98 million contracts that include $50 million in signing bonuses in the first 3 years. If this doesn’t prove the league is its own worst enemy, I don’t know what does.

  • If the objective is to prevent teams from using lifetime deals to play loose with the cap, wouldn’t it make more sense to simply make the cap hit equal the average of the top, say, 5 years of the contract?

This is Vancity: Victory Blog Post

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Jun 242012
 
ThisIsVancity.com, Vancouver Canucks

The following is a guest post by This is Vancity. They beat us by many points in the Hockey Greats Charity Pool and therefore won the right to the agreed-upon victory post of their choice.

We did it. We beat out the best in Vancouver’s blogosphere and we did through the most honourable means, a charity hockey playoff pool.

Now, we expected CanucksHockeyBlog.com to sweep everyone in the pool, but then again, we also expected our very own Blue, Green, and White to bring the Cup home (next time boys!) We should also mention that VancouverIsAwesome.com’s trash-talking was rather Bieksian (to be honest) and we thank VancityBuzz.com for organizing this better than A.V. every could. From our point-of-view, it is this kind of friendly competition that makes Vancouver what it is.

For those who haven’t heard of our blog, www.ThisIsVancity.com, we seek out projects, initiatives, and other local happenings that combine the creative and the commercial through every collaboration. Our content breaks down the left/right brain paradigm and offers storytelling through multiple media (articles, video, photos, infographics, etc.) We recognize the many entrepreneurs, change-makers, and other creative professionals working hard to make ideas happen. Oh, and we’re currently recruiting. If you’re a writer, photographer, designer, or anyone interested in documenting this incredible city, give us a shout. Stay updated on Facebook, or talk to us directly through Twitter. Finally, learn more about our team and how you can get involved by looking out for your local crow ? we’re everywhere.

2012 NHL Entry Draft Day 2: Canucks Select Mallet, Hutton, Myron and Beattie

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Jun 232012
 

Canucks GM Mike Gillis has made no bones about wanting bigger, smarter players. He proved that last night with his first round selection of Belleville Bulls’ 6’2″ center Brendan Gaunce. Today, he continued with that theme with the selection of 3 forwards and 1 defenseman, all at least 6’1″ and 3 of them having committed to play for the University of Maine, Boston University and Yale.

Round 2, 57th overall: Alexandre Mallet, C, Rimouski (6′ 1″, 194 lbs.)

Alexandre Mallet, Rimouski Oceanic, Vancouver Canucks

Photo credit: TVA Sports

Undrafted last year and unranked this year, Mallet (@LaMalletos_21) is a physical overager who potted 34 goals and 81 points for the Rimouski Oceanic last season.

The Hockey Writers: Mallet is not simply a fighter that picks up garbage goals around the net, he can also score beauties thanks to a booming slap shot and soft hands, and his goals often come in bunches.

New England Hockey Journal: Older, 1992-born center is like Mitch Moroz: tough, rugged and willing to drop the gloves anytime, anywhere. Although the upside is a bit in question, he has the physical traits and attitude to appeal to the Bruins.

The Chronicle Herald: He also went undrafted last year but broke out with 81 points this year, more than quadrupling his 2010-11 totals. Scouts like his offensive potential, but love his physical play even more.

Round 5, 147th overall: Ben Hutton, D, Nepean (6′ 3″, 195 lbs.)

Another prospect who was passed over in last year’s draft, Hutton (@bhutt10) captained the Kemptville 73s, led the Nepean Raiders to the CCHL championship, and represented Canada East in the World Junior A Challenge.

From BDN Maine Sports:

Ben Hutton, a point-producing 6-foot-3, 195-pound defenseman for the Kemptville (Ontario) 73’s of the Central Canada Hockey League, has verbally committed to attend the University of Maine on a scholarship beginning next fall.

Hutton, who plays in all situations, is the team’s No. 2 scorer with seven goals and 19 assists in 30 games. He leads the team in assists and in power-play points with 12 on four goals and eight assists.

(skip)

“He’s the best defenseman in our league, by far. He’s like a man among boys out there,” said Kemptville coach and general manager Pat Malloy. “He oozes with pro potential. His skill level is so high.”

“He’s big and his puck skills and hands are off the charts,” added Malloy. “He’s a one-man forecheck breaker, he has a good shot and he’s an above-average skater. He plays 35 minutes a game and plays important minutes against the other team’s top line.”

Malloy said Hutton, who is the team captain, is also a first-class individual.

“He’s a straight arrow from a good family who will do anything to win and will do anything for the team,” said Malloy. “He’s a dream to coach.”

Round 6, 177th overall: Wesley Myron, LW, Victoria (6′ 2″, 190 lbs.)

Wesley Myron, Victoria Grizzlies, Vancouver Canucks

Photo credit: Grizz Roar

Like Hutton, Victoria, BC native Myron (@Mysie9) played in the 2011 World Junior A Challenge, winning gold while representing Team Canada West.

US Hockey Report: Myron, a tall, lanky kid with the frame of an NHL-type center, is a strong skater who has shown a lot of finish in the BCHL. He was #3 on our list of Top Uncommitted NCAA Prospects (USHR News, 10/25/11), following only Seth Jones (US U-18) and Alex Kerfoot (Coquitlam – BCHL). Myron has the potential to be a top two line center for the Terriers, which, should Charlie Coyle opt to go pro (not a foregone conclusion), would fill a very immediate need. An 8/16/92 birthdate and Victoria, BC native, Myron was also sought by UNH and St. Cloud State. Michigan was reportedly beginning to show interest too.

Grizz Roar: With 24 assists in 23 games the bigger 6’2” 190lbs Myron is the set-up man, “His passing has always been good and it seems to get better every year and his physical play has improved this year” adds Murphy.

Round 7, 207th overall: Matthew Beattie, C/RW, Phillips Exeter Academy (6′ 3″, 175 lbs.)

Matthew Beattie, Phillips Exeter Academy, Vancouver Canucks

Photo credit: Phillips Exeter Academy

Because the Canucks love Ivy League players, they reached out and drafted Yale-bound Beattie (@UnBeatable_13) with their last pick of the 2012 NHL Entry Draft.

College Hockey Perspective: Exeter coach Dana Barbin couldn’t be happier to have had a year’s worth of Beattie’s contribution in his lineup. Said Barbin, “Matt has been outstanding all year in his post-grad year. He is the leading scorer in New England with 28 goals, 29 assists in 18 games. He’s one of my all-time favorites in 25 years here. Matt loves to practice, play, and enjoy the game with his teammates. He’s a real competitor when the going gets tough. His skating is outstanding, explosive and he has pretty darn good hands as well. He needs to improve speed of his shot and put on some weight, but Matt has flown under the radar. He could be the real deal.”

New England Hockey Journal: But as Exeter is enjoying its best season, record-wise, since its New England championship team of 1998-99, the 6-foot-3 Beattie, a Yale-bound postgraduate, is leading the team in scoring with 28-29-57 totals entering last weekend.

That’s even more than the Harvard-bound Hart (21-25-46), who was recently tabbed by Central Scouting as the 60th-ranked North American skater in its midterm draft rankings.

“No one knew who he was,” said Exeter coach Dana Barbin (Exeter, N.H.) of Beattie. “Over the summer he started going around to camps and then people started saying, ‘Whoa.’ He sent me a DVD 15 months ago. I looked at it and said, ‘Oh, yeah.’ He’s been lights out from the first game.”

Pass on Patrick White, Please

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Jun 192012
 
Tom Wilson, Plymouth Whalers, NHL Entry Draft 2012

Photo credit: Sportsnet

The last time the Canucks drafted 26th overall in the NHL Entry Draft was in 2004 when they drafted a certain red-headed goaltender, Cory Schneider.

Schneider was the fourth goalie drafted that year, behind Al Montoya (6th overall, New York Rangers), Devan Dubnyk (14th, Edmonton Oilers) and Marek Schwartz (17th, St. Louis Blues).

It’s not likely the Canucks will draft another goalie with the 26th pick this year; in fact, since that 2004 draft, only 10 other goalies were picked in the first round.

As we approach draft day on Friday, the consensus seems to be that it is weak and unpredictable. There are some top-end talent in the first few picks, but after that, all bets are off.

Given their organizational depth and the general direction of the league, chances are Mike Gillis and company are looking for some big players up front. Big players who can skate and score.

Here are some of the guys who may fit that mold and what the experts are saying about them.

Thomas Wilson, RW, Plymouth (6’4″, 195 lbs., shoots right)

TSN: His skating continues to improve and he gets to the necessary places so as to create the literal and figurative impact in the game. Very good sense and he doesn’t run around aimlessly and his puck skills should not be underestimated because with the room he creates, he also can finish.

The Hockey News: The Plymouth Whalers power forward uses his big frame to punish his opponents and create scoring chances. And if someone doesn’t like it, he’s happy to drop the gloves.

The Scouting Report: Wilson is one of the biggest forwards in this draft and has developed into a true power forward. He’s an imposing winger who plays a gritty brand of hockey that has certainly caught the eye of NHL teams. He can change the complexion of a game when he engages physically and he has the ability to create a lot of space for his linemates through effective cycling.

Future Considerations: He skates very well for his size, wins the little battles along the boards, and in front of the net where he has a knack for scoring, and plays a solid north and south game. He is your prototypical power forward that can change the course of a game with a goal, a big hit, or a fight and holds the same potential to be an impact player in junior and at the pro level.

Brendan Gaunce, C, Belleville (6’2″, 215 lbs., shoots left)

TSN: He is smart and plays the game well both with and without the puck. He makes plays and because he’s smart he gets scoring chances and an improved shot can make him that much better offensively. He works without the puck and is also capable of playing on the wing which adds a component of versatility to his game.

NHL.com: A scout said if he were building a team from ground-up, Gaunce would be his first pick.

The Hockey Writers: Brendan Gaunce is a meat-and-potatoes type of player willing to enter the gritty areas and engage in puck battles. His defensive awareness, positioning on both sides of the puck and faceoff prowess earn him tough minutes as a shutdown option. Offensively, Gaunce plays a power game complemented by above-average passing skills and an ability to unleash a hot wrist in tight quarters.

Hockey Prospectus: Gaunce is a bulking two-way power forward who can also finish and distribute the puck at a high level. He is a really smart hockey player with tremendous instincts and vision on the ice. Even though he’s an aggressive checker, he also has the ability to pull up along the side boards, control a power play and be a very effective distributor.

Martin Frk, RW, Halifax (6’0″, 204 lbs., shoots right)

TSN: Martin is a goal scorer. He wants to score, is hungry to score and is that player who is lurking for the chance to score. He plays a straight ahead game and is more of a shooter. He has a good shot and can beat goaltenders with it down the wing and it’s a heavy shot.

MyNHLDraft.com: Frk’s commitment and drive has been questioned at times during his time with Halifax however it is quite clear when he is motivated he is the best player on the ice. This guy has an NHL shot and can shoot holes through the net. He already has a body that can withstand the physical punishment that the NHL offers and as well has a magnificent skill set to compliment his big body presence.

The Hockey Writers: A typical high-risk, high reward prospect, Frk could turn out to be an early second-round steal if he is developed properly by the team that drafts him.

Dobber Prospects: Frk is one of the top draft eligible players coming out of the QMJHL this year. Durability and consistency concerns could see him fall in the draft. He struggled once he returned, but started to produce during the last quarter of the season. His biggest asset is his booming shot, which might be among the best in the entire 2012 draft. He has a nasty, gritty side and is very strong on the puck.

Tomas Hertl, C, Slavia (6’2″, 198 lbs., shoots left)

TSN: He takes a cerebral approach which finds him in proper position on the ice but always ready to take advantage of opportunity. He forces opponents into mistakes without the puck and when he gains the puck, his awareness, vision and puck skills allow him to threaten offensively. He is a very good passer but given the opportunity to shoot, he can be dangerous.

NHL.com: Big and skilled, and already a star in the Czech league.

The Hockey News: Ice awareness and his ability to make plays are Hertl’s strongest assets.

Hockey Prospectus: Hertl is a gifted puck-handler who is above-average to plus in that area with good creativity and hand-eye coordination. He has a nice frame and is pretty hard to strip the puck from in the cycle game due to his hands and puck protection abilities. Hertl’s physical game is pretty solid all-around as he is strong, with a good sized frame, will go to the net, and doesn’t mind getting a little chippy.

Scott Laughton, C, Oshawa (6’0″, 177 lbs., shoots left)

TSN: He has excellent hockey sense and is capable of playing any situation in the game. He is smart defensively. He is smart offensively. He can adjust to different circumstances and excel. He leaves himself in strong position on the ice so he’s always ready to make the appropriate play for the situation.

OHL Prospects: I’ve said it before, but Laughton reminds me a lot of Mike Richards at the same age and I think there’s a chance he’s put himself in conversation for the back end of the first round.

The Hockey Guys: Despite competing heavily for ice-time on a veteran filled Generals’ team, Laughton proved that his strong two-way responsible game and tireless work ethic was too impressive to limit his minutes. As a true character player, Laughton has commendable offensive skills highlighted by above-average puck control and protects the puck exceptionally well. His vision and knack for reading his opponents is what makes him such a well-balanced pivot at both ends of the rink.

The Scouting Report: With no shortage of offensive firepower in Oshawa, Laughton’s minutes are not what they would be on other teams and he sees less powerplay time as a secondary option. With that being said, Laughton did show flashes of his offensive upside during the second half of the season while continuing his strong two-way play. Laughton isn’t an overly big player nor is he going to blow you away with speed, but he competes hard and is a strong checker.

E-Book Review: Luongo in Vancouver

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Jun 182012
 

The very notion of trading Vancouver Canucks goaltender Roberto Luongo once seemed unthinkable.

But somewhere along the way to setting single-season and franchise records in wins and shutouts, winning more playoff games than every other Canucks goaltender except for Kirk McLean, and taking the team as close to winning its first ever Stanley Cup as anyone else has, something went wrong.

Sometime during his 6 seasons in Vancouver, when he provided easily the best stretch of goaltending in this franchise’s woeful goaltending history, the fans who used to “Luuuuu” him turned to booing him.

In this e-book,“Luongo in Vancouver”, The Province gives a retrospective look at Luongo’s career as a Canuck. Featuring past articles written by beat writers, Jason Botchford, Ben Kuzma and Gordon McIntyre, and columnists, Ed Willes and Tony Gallagher, it takes Canucks fans back through the emotional roller coaster that is Luongo’s relationship with this city, and in doing so, also puts on the forefront his fiery competitiveness.

In Luongo’s turn from prized acquisition to trade bait, from goaltending savior to pariah, fans will see the same proud and emotional goaltender, one who approaches the game with the same desire to win, even as those same fans changed their feelings about him. They’ll see him relish in his success and wallow in his failures. They’ll see him eagerly accept the challenges of playing in a hockey-mad city – even accept the team’s captaincy – and bravely respond to his critics.

“Luongo in Vancouver” hits on several of Luongo’s many highlights – and lowlights – including the 2006 blockbuster trade that brought him to the Canucks during the NHL Draft weekend in Vancouver, his first taste of the NHL playoffs in his first season as a Canuck and missing it the season after, his unexpected start and stellar performance in backstopping Team Canada to the gold medal at the 2010 Winter Olympics, his stumbles against the Chicago Blackhawks before finally beating them in 2011, his uneven performance in the 2011 Stanley Cup Finals, and then finally relinquishing the starter’s role to Cory Schneider during the 2012 playoffs.

For Luongo, the e-book chronicles how he took the Canucks on his shoulders for 6 seasons before ultimately falling one win short of winning it all. For Canucks fans, it shows how they first welcomed the winningest goaltender in franchise history with excited and open arms before starting to abandon him in droves.

“Luongo in Vancouver” is available for purchase on Amazon.

Canucks Still Love Raymond, Kinda

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Jun 142012
 
Mason Raymond, Vancouver Canucks

Photo credit: PNG

In 2009/2010, his 2nd full season with the Vancouver Canucks, Mason Raymond scored 25 goals and 53 points.

In 2010/2011, he was on pace for almost 50 points had he not been sidelined for 10 games by a hand injury.

And then in the Stanley Cup Finals, as we all know by now, the Boston Bruins’ Johnny Boychuk gave him the ol’ can opener early in Game 6 and pushed him into the boards with enough force to break his back.

A lot of Canucks fans, myself included, had written May Ray off after that and with good reason. There was a time that he himself wasn’t sure he’d be able to play in the NHL again.

But in December last year, May Ray came back, scored 3 goals and 7 points in his first 9 games, and it looked like his career was back on track. Unfortunately, he would just score 7 goals and 13 points in his last 46 games, and just like that, his stock among Canucks fans fell faster than, well, Mason Raymond at the blueline.

So when the Canucks elected to take May Ray to arbitration, a move that essentially maintains his RFA status and allows the Canucks to retain his rights, reaction was divided. One segment of Canucks Nation would much rather have seen him not qualified and off to unrestricted free agency. Another segment sees him for what he his – an asset. An undervalued asset, but an asset nonetheless.

From Jim Jamieson (Vancouver Province):

The Canucks filed for rarely used cut-down arbitration on the lightning fast winger, with the intention of reducing the $2.6 million in salary he made last season on a new one-year deal.

The move allows the club to take Raymond off the market on July 1 when he was due to become a restricted free agent. They can ask an arbitrator to cut Raymond’s salary in his new contract by as much as 15 per cent, to $2.21 million.

Whether we want to believe it or not, May Ray is a legit NHL player. His 53 points in 2009/2010 ranked him among the top 80 scorers in the NHL. Had he hit 50 points in 2010/2011, he would have been among the top 100 scorers in the league. (And that’s not counting all the little things he does but we don’t see.) Mike Gillis and Laurence Gilman see this and won’t give him up for nothing.

Now, it’s obvious May Ray’s play regressed this past season. But is that because, at 26, he’s peaked as a player? Or is it because he was recovering from what was almost a career-ending injury? Just as much as there’s a chance his hockey career is fading, there’s also a chance he’ll bounce back.

More importantly, do the Canucks still see a role for him on this team? The Canucks don’t want to pay $2.6 million to find out, but rolling the dice may be more palatable at closer to $2.2 million. And not just more palatable for the Canucks, maybe other teams as well, should the Canucks later decide to take their roster in another direction.

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