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Out of Town Notebook: The Real NHL Eastern Conference Standings Revisited

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Jan 182012

Yesterday we took at look at the “real” Western Conference standings after 40 games.

Here now is a look at the East.

Remember, to learn a bit more about an individual team’s strengths and weaknesses, each squad was ranked in six categories*:

Goals for (GF) and shots-for (SHF) were chosen to evaluate a team’s offense;
Shots-against (SHA) and goals against (GA) were chosen to evaluate a team’s defensive play;
Five-on-five (5-on-5) was chosen to evaluate a team’s even-strength/system play;
Save percentage (SVPCT) was chosen to evaluate the team’s goaltending performance.

Teams were ranked and then put into groups of five, with those ranking 1-5 in each category designated “great,” 6-10 “good,” 11-15 “above average,” 16-20 “below average,” 21-25 “poor,” 26-30 “awful.”

(* – Stats were taken as of Thursday January 12, once all teams had played at least 40 games.)

The Eastern Conference Standings After 40 Games

1. New York Rangers (58 points)
Games 21-40: 1st in Conference (31 points)
Games 1-20: 1st in Conference (27 points)
SVPCT: Great / SHA: Above Average / GF: Good / GA: Great / 5-on-5: Great / SHF: Awful

Notes: The Winter Classic and HBO 24/7 circus certainly didn’t phase the Rangers, who went 15-4-1 in the second quarter to once again stay atop the “real” NHL standings. Marian Gaborik scored at a 50-goal pace during games 21-40, while hard-working captain Ryan Callahan chipped in with 6 goals and 17 points. Meanwhile, Michael Del Zotto was Mike Green-esque, with 3 goals and 16 points from the blueline.

2. Boston Bruins (57 points)
Games 21-40: 2nd in Conference (31 points)
Games 1-20: 2nd in Conference (26 points)
SVPCT: Great / SHA: Poor / GF: Great / GA: Great / 5-on-5: Great / SHF: Great

Notes: Probably the deepest team in the Eastern Conference, if not the entire NHL. Their 5-on-5 goals for/against ratio was at 2.06 after 40 games, the best in the entire league and more than double the league average. Tuukka Rask (1.07 goals against, .964 save percentage) and Tim Thomas (2.17 goals against, .941 save percentage) are practically unbeatable. Making the Bruins even more dangerous: David Krejci has woken up (7 goals, 23 points during games 21-40).

3. Florida Panthers (48 points)
Games 21-40: 6th in Conference (23 points)
Games 1-20: 6th in Conference (25 points)
SVPCT: Good / SHA: Below Average / GF: Poor / GA: Above Average 5-on-5: Poor / SHF: Above Average

Notes: They’re in third by virtue of leading the Southeast Division after 40 games. Like the Minnesota Wild, the Panthers are starting to fall back to earth. Goal scoring was way down, from 2.95 goals per game in the first quarter to 2.2 goals per game in the second. Somehow Tomas Kopecky was -11 in games 21-40.

4. Philadelphia Flyers (52 points)
Games 21-40: 3rd in Conference (27 points)
Games 1-20: 5th in Conference (25 points)
SVPCT: Poor / SHA: Good / GF: Great / GA: Poor / 5-on-5: Good / SHF: Great

Notes: Sergei Bobrovsky (1.75 goals against, .941 save percentage) was much, much, much better than Ilya Bryzgalov (3.52, .876) in the second quarter. Meanwhile, Kimmo Timonen (1 goal, 13 points. +6) capably replaced Chris Pronger at least in the short-term as the team’s go-to defenseman. Jaromir Jagr slowed down a bit in games 21-40 (6 goals, 14 points vs 18 points in the first quarter), but some of that was due to injury. James Van Riemsdyk has disappointed (3 goals in the second quarter).

5. Pittsburgh Penguins (46 points)
Games 21-40: 9th in Conference (21 points)
Games 1-20: 4th in Conference (25 points)
SVPCT: Poor / SHA: Great / GF: Good / GA: Good / 5-on-5: Above Average / SHF: Great

Notes: For the second straight year, the Penguins are battling through injuries to keep a playoff spot, only this time Marc-Andre Fleury hasn’t played as well (.902 save percentage in the second quarter). Evgeni Malkin entered beast mode (30 points in games 21-40), and depending on how Pittsburgh finishes could be a Hart Trophy candidate.

6. New Jersey Devils (46 points)
Games 21-40: 7th in Conference (23 points)
Games 1-20: 9th in Conference (23 points)
SVPCT: Awful / SHA: Great / GF: Below Average / 5-on-5: Awful / SHF: Poor

Notes: The Devils cannot make the playoffs with Martin Brodeur as their number one goalie. His save percentage was just .878 in the second quarter. This despite the fact the Devils only gave up 30-or-more shots in three of his 14 starts, and two of the three being overtime games. Zach Parise (8 goals, 22 points) and Ilya Kovalchuk (10 goals, 21 points) awoke in games 21-40, and the Devils have two solid scoring lines for the first time in ages.

7. Toronto Maple Leafs (45 points)
Games 21-40: 10th in Conference (21 points)
Games 1-20: 7th in Conference (24 points)
SVPCT: Below Average / SHA: Poor / GF: Good / GA: Poor / 5-on-5: Good / SHF: Poor

Notes: Leaf struggles in the second quarter are well documented already (thanks Toronto-centric hockey media!). The penalty kill was roughly 4% worse (down to 72.3%) and was the difference between a win and a loss most nights. Meanwhile, James Reimer wasn’t very good (3-4-3, 3.23 goals against, .893 save percentage since returning in December from injury).

8. Ottawa Senators (45 points)
Games 21-40: 4th in Conference (24 points)
Games 1-20: 10th in Conference (21 points)
SVPCT: Poor / SHA: Awful / GF: Good / GA: Below Average / 5-on-5: Above Average / SHF: Good

Notes: Ottawa has improved their five-on-five play and with that are rising up the standings. Eight times in the second quarter they played into overtime, garnering 13 of a possible 16 points in those games. Daniel Alfreddsson hit the rejuvenation machine (17 points in 15 December games, versus 10 points in his first 18 games of the year).

9. Washington Capitals (44 points)
Games 21-40: 11th in Conference (19 points)
Games 1-20: 3rd in Conference (25 points)
SVPCT: Poor / SHA: Above Average / GF: Good / GA: Poor / 5-on-5: Below Average / SHF: Poor

Notes: One of the great “what could have beens” in NHL history is what the Capitals could have been if Jaroslav Halak and the Montreal Canadiens hadn’t gotten into GM George McPhee’s head after one playoff series. Washington’s loss to Montreal effectively ended the “all offense, all the time” experiment that defined the Capitals and could have redefined how elite NHL teams are built. Nowadays, the Capitals are as ho-hum a franchise as can be. On the bright side, Alex Ovechkin (10 goals, 17 points) and Nik Backstrom (6 goals, 19 points) were decent in the second quarter. However, Mike Knuble entered retirement during games 21-40 (1 goal, 2 points), while other core players Brooks Laich (4 goals, 8 points), Alex Semin (5 goals, 11 points), Marcus Johansson (1 goal) struggled. Tomas Vokoun did find his old self (2.45 goals against, .919 save percentage).

10. Winnipeg Jets (43 points)
Games 21-40: 5th in Conference (24 points)
Games 1-20: 13th in Conference (19 points)
SVPCT: Below Average / SHA: Poor / GF: Below Average / GA: Poor / 5-on-5: Below Average / SHF: Above Average

Notes: As you can probably guess from the number of times it appears above, the Jets are an average hockey club. Still, they’ve ridden a hot home record (10-3-1 during the second quarter) to position themselves for a run at a playoff spot. Evander Kane (10 goals), Andrew Ladd and Bryan Little (both with 7 goals) had nice second quarters. A Teemu Selanne deadline trade to Winnipeg would be magical.

11. Buffalo Sabres (40 points)
Games 21-40: 14th in Conference (16 points)
Games 1-20: 8th in Conference (24 points)
SVPCT: Above Average / SHA: Awful / GF: Poor / GA: Below Average / 5-on-5: Above Average / SHF: Below Average

Notes: A lot has been made of Ryan Miller’s performance this season, and his second quarter numbers certainly support the criticism (3.21 goals against, .894 save percentage). However, a greater factor in the Sabres decline has been the errors the team made prior to the season. Robyn Regehr (-10 in the second quarter) and Christian Ehrhoff (2 goals, 7 points, -7 in games 21-40) were supposed to improve the defense and haven’t. Ville Leino was supposed to augment the offense, and he clearly hasn’t worked out (1 goal, 5 points in the second quarter). Look for Derek Roy (2 goals, 10 points in games 21-40) to be possibly moved at the trade deadline.

12. Montreal Canadiens (37 Points)
Games 21-40: 15th in Conference (16 points)
Games 1-20: 11th in Conference (21 points)
SVPCT: Below Average / SHA: Good / GF: Below Average / GA: Above Average / 5-on-5: Above Average / SHF: Below Average

Notes: It’s clear the Habs are going in the wrong direction. A notoriously strong defensive team under former coach Jacques Martin, this part of Montreal’s game regressed in the second quarter, with the team giving up more shots and more goals per game. The recent acquisition of Tomas Kaberle did help the powerplay (18.1% with Kaberle in the lineup during the second quarter; 10.4% before his arrival).

13. Tampa Bay Lightning (37 points)
Games 21-40: 12th in Conference (17 points)
Games 1-20: 12th in Conference (20 points)
SVPCT: Awful / SHA: Below Average / GF: Above Average / GA: Awful / 5-on-5: Below Average / SHF: Poor

Notes: There’s nothing wrong in Tampa Bay a decent goaltender couldn’t cure. Dwayne Roloson has become the worst goalie in the league (4.63 goals against, .866 save percentage in the second quarter) while Mathieu Garon has been below average (2.84 goals against, .901 save percentage during games 21-40). Could Martin St. Louis be dealt for a young goalie? Or do they go to the well one more time for a veteran Islanders goaltender (Evgeni Nabokov)? Marc-Andre Bergeron has cooled off since his hot start (1 goal, 6 points in the second quarter).

14. New York Islanders (36 points)
Games 21-40: 8th in Conference (22 points)
Games 1-20: 15th in the Conference (14 points)
SVPCT: Below Average / SHA: Above Average / GF: Poor / GA: Poor / 5-on-5: Poor / SHF: Below Average

Notes: The Islanders turned it around in the second quarter, particularly on the attack. They went from 1.90 goals per game in the first quarter to 2.55 during games 21-40. The powerplay was a big part of this increase, scoring at a 25.8% clip, almost an 11% improvement over the first 20 games of the year. John Tavares has arrived (6 goals, 23 points in the second quarter).

15. Carolina Hurricanes (32 points)
Games 21-40: 13th in Conference (17 points)
Games 1-20: 14th in the Conference (15 points)
SVPCT: Awful / SHA: Awful / GF: Below Average / GA: Above Average / 5-on-5: Awful / SHF: Above Average

Notes: If you can believe it, Cam Ward’s play has gotten worse statistically as the season has gone along. His save percentage was .890 in November, .878 in December. The ‘Canes scored more in the second quarter, while reducing their shots against slightly under new coach Kirk Muller. Muller also gave the young talent on the team a chance (Drayson Bowman from around 7 minutes of ice-time to 15+; Zac Dalpe from around 5 minutes of ice time to 13+). Quietly, Eric Staal’s game returned (13 points in 14 December games).

Out of Town Notebook: Boogaard, Fisticuffs and NHL Realignment

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Dec 072011

Some quick thoughts on two issues dominating NHL talk right now:

Derek Boogaard and Fighting in the NHL

For anyone who’s been living under a rock, here’s the original New York Times story about the study of Derek Boogaard’s brain.

The results of the study shouldn’t surprise anyone. If you’re a fighter, and you get punched in the head a lot, it’s logical the impact of these blows will have an effect on your brain and brain function.

The larger issue here is that, as scientists continue to show conclusive evidence that hockey fights endanger the health of those involved, it gives credence to the argument against fighting in the NHL.

See, it was easy before for the old guard to say that fighting has always been a part of the sport, and that those who want it removed don’t understand the game, or aren’t man enough or tough enough to understand.

Scientific evidence kind of robs these folks of their bully pulpit.

Look, there’s a simple solution here that should make both sides of the argument happy.

Don’t ban fighting in the NHL. Just kick anyone who fights out of the game.

Fight in the last five minutes of the game – you miss the next game. And then determine a suspension formula for players who fight multiple times in a year.

This way, the NHL can say they haven’t banned fighting but are going to great lengths to protect players.

Conversely, the reduction in NHL fights that would follow such a rule change would appease most of those who believe the game is better off without the pugilist sideshow.

Makes sense. So much sense that this is how it’s done for most amateur hockey leagues and beer leagues in Canada.

(Another option we’ve already discussed in this space – getting rid of the 4th liners who cause most of the NHL violence).

One more thought on this – I heard talk on Team 1040 today wondering if the NHL knows if its core audience is pro-fighting or fighting-opposed.

The NHL absolutely knows the answer to this question. It probably knows the answer to this question in Canada and the United States, if not for its fans in each NHL city.

Why? Because professional sports leagues do significant market research to protect and grow their brand.

Given this, if the NHL doesn’t move on fighting, then it says a lot about where their current fan base stands on the issue.

NHL Realignment

How would the NHL standings and playoffs have differed if the proposed NHL realignment had been in place since the lockout? Let’s have a look:

2005/2006

Standings:

Eastern Conference	Team	Pts	Western Conference	Team	Pts
1	Ottawa	113	1	Detroit	124
2	Carolina	112	2	Dallas	112
3	New Jersey	101	3	Calgary	103
4	Buffalo	110	4	Nashville	106
5	Philadelphia	101	5	San Jose	99
6	NY Rangers	100	6	Anaheim	98
7	Montreal	93	7	Colorado	95
8	Tampa Bay	92	8	Edmonton	95
9	Toronto	90	9	Vancouver	92
10	Winnipeg	90	10	Los Angeles	89
11	Florida	85	11	Minnesota	84
12	NY Islanders	78	12	Phoenix	81
13	Boston	74	13	Columbus	74
14	Washington	70	14	Chicago	65
15	Pittsburgh	58	15	St. Louis	57

Playoff seeding under new format:

New Conference A	New Conference B	New Conference C	New Conference D
Carolina – 112	Ottawa – 113	Detroit – 124	Calgary – 103
New Jersey – 101	Buffalo – 110	Dallas -112	San Jose – 99
Philadelphia – 101	Montreal – 93	Nashville – 106	Anaheim – 98
NY Rangers – 100	Tampa Bay – 92	Winnipeg – 90	Colorado – 95

Some notes about 2005/2006:

Winnipeg makes the playoffs, while Edmonton, the Stanley Cup finalist that year, doesn’t.
Ottawa still plays Tampa Bay in the first round (Sens won the series 4-1). That’s the only series that stays the same.

2006/2007

Standings:

Eastern Conference	Team	Pts	Western Conference	Team	Pts
1	Buffalo	113	1	Detroit	113
2	New Jersey	107	2	Anaheim	110
3	Winnipeg	97	3	Vancouver	105
4	Ottawa	105	4	Nashville	110
5	Pittsburgh	105	5	San Jose	107
6	NY Rangers	94	6	Dallas	107
7	Tampa Bay	93	7	Minnesota	104
8	NY Islanders	92	8	Calgary	96
9	Toronto	91	9	Colorado	95
10	Montreal	90	10	St. Louis	81
11	Carolina	88	11	Columbus	73
12	Florida	86	12	Edmonton	71
13	Boston	76	13	Chicago	71
14	Washington	70	14	Los Angeles	68
15	Philadelphia	56	15	Phoenix	67

Playoff seeding under new format:

New Conference A	New Conference B	New Conference C	New Conference D
New Jersey – 107	Buffalo – 113	Detroit – 113	Anaheim – 110
Pittsburgh – 105	Ottawa – 105	Nashville – 110	San Jose – 107
New York Rangers – 94	Tampa Bay – 93	Dallas – 107	Vancouver – 105
New York Islanders – 92	Toronto – 91	Minnesota – 104	Calgary – 96

Some notes about 2006/2007:

Toronto makes the playoffs, while Winnipeg does not in their new Conference. All the teams in the “old West” make it.
Nashville plays Dallas for the second year in a row, as does Ottawa against Tampa Bay.

2007/2008

Standings:

Eastern Conference	Team	Pts	Western Conference	Team	Pts
1	Montreal	104	1	Detroit	115
2	Pittsburgh	102	2	San Jose	108
3	Washington	94	3	Minnesota	98
4	New Jersey	99	4	Anaheim	102
5	NY Rangers	97	5	Dallas	97
6	Philadelphia	95	6	Colorado	95
7	Ottawa	94	7	Calgary	94
8	Boston	94	8	Nashville	91
9	Carolina	92	9	Edmonton	88
10	Buffalo	90	10	Chicago	88
11	Florida	85	11	Vancouver	88
12	Toronto	83	12	Phoenix	83
13	NY Islanders	79	13	Columbus	80
14	Winnipeg	76	14	St. Louis	79
15	Tampa Bay	71	15	Los Angeles	71

Playoff seeding under new format:

New Conference A	New Conference B	New Conference C	New Conference D
Pittsburgh – 102	Montreal – 104	Detroit – 115	San Jose – 108
New Jersey – 99	Ottawa – 94	Minnesota – 98	Anaheim – 102
New York Rangers – 97	Boston – 94	Dallas – 97	Colorado – 95
Philadelphia – 95	Buffalo – 90	Nashville – 91	Calgary – 94

Some notes about 2007/2008:

Washington doesn’t make the playoffs while Buffalo does. All the teams in the “old West” make it.
Detroit and Nashville still play each other in the first round (Detroit won the series 4-2), as do San Jose and Calgary (San Jose won the series 4-3).

2008/2009

Standings:

Eastern Conference	Team	Pts	Western Conference	Team	Pts
1	Boston	116	1	San Jose	117
2	Washington	108	2	Detroit	112
3	New Jersey	106	3	Vancouver	100
4	Pittsburgh	99	4	Chicago	104
5	Philadelphia	99	5	Calgary	98
6	Carolina	97	6	St. Louis	92
7	NY Rangers	95	7	Columbus	92
8	Montreal	93	8	Anaheim	91
9	Florida	93	9	Minnesota	89
10	Buffalo	91	10	Nashville	88
11	Ottawa	83	11	Edmonton	85
12	Toronto	81	12	Dallas	83
13	Winnipeg	76	13	Phoenix	79
14	Tampa Bay	66	14	Los Angeles	79
15	NY Islanders	61	15	Colorado	69

Playoff seeding under new format:

New Conference A	New Conference B	New Conference C	New Conference D
Washington – 108	Boston – 116	Detroit – 112	San Jose – 117
New Jersey – 106	Montreal – 93	Chicago – 104	Vancouver – 100
Pittsburgh – 99	Florida – 93	St. Louis – 92	Calgary – 98
Philadelphia – 99	Buffalo – 91	Columbus – 92	Anaheim – 91

Some notes about 2008/2009:

Both Carolina and the New York Rangers wouldn’t make the playoffs under the new format. Conversely, Florida (!?!?) and Buffalo do.
All the teams in the “old West,” again, make it under the new format.
San Jose and Anaheim would still play each other (Anaheim won the series 4-2), as would Detroit and Columbus (Detroit won the series 4-0).

2009/2010

Standings:

Eastern Conference	Team	Pts	Western Conference	Team	Pts
1	Washington	121	1	San Jose	113
2	New Jersey	103	2	Chicago	112
3	Buffalo	100	3	Vancouver	103
4	Pittsburgh	101	4	Phoenix	107
5	Ottawa	94	5	Detroit	102
6	Boston	91	6	Los Angeles	101
7	Philadelphia	88	7	Nashville	100
8	Montreal	88	8	Colorado	95
9	NY Rangers	87	9	St. Louis	90
10	Winnipeg	83	10	Calgary	90
11	Carolina	80	11	Anaheim	89
12	Tampa Bay	80	12	Dallas	88
13	NY Islanders	79	13	Minnesota	84
14	Florida	77	14	Columbus	79
15	Toronto	74	15	Edmonton	62

Playoff seeding under new format:

New Conference A	New Conference B	New Conference C	New Conference D
Washington – 121	Buffalo – 100	Chicago – 112	San Jose – 113
New Jersey – 103	Ottawa – 94	Detroit – 102	Phoenix – 107
Pittsburgh – 101	Boston – 91	Nashville – 100	Vancouver – 103
Philadelphia – 88	Montreal – 88	St. Louis – 90	Los Angeles – 101

Some notes about 2009/2010:

All the teams in the “old East” make it under the new format. St. Louis qualifies under the new format; Colorado doesn’t.
Washington/Philadelphia, New Jersey/Pittsburgh and Chicago/St. Louis play each other in the first round for the second year in a row.

2010/2011

Standings:

Eastern Conference	Team	Pts	Western Conference	Team	Pts
1	Washington	107	1	Vancouver	117
2	Philadelphia	106	2	San Jose	105
3	Boston	103	3	Detroit	104
4	Pittsburgh	106	4	Anaheim	99
5	Tampa Bay	103	5	Nashville	99
6	Montreal	96	6	Phoenix	99
7	Buffalo	96	7	Los Angeles	98
8	NY Rangers	93	8	Chicago	97
9	Carolina	91	9	Dallas	95
10	Toronto	85	10	Calgary	94
11	New Jersey	81	11	St. Louis	87
12	Winnipeg	80	12	Minnesota	86
13	Ottawa	74	13	Columbus	81
14	NY Islanders	73	14	Colorado	68
15	Florida	72	15	Edmonton	62

Playoff seeding under new format:

New Conference A	New Conference B	New Conference C	New Conference D
Washington – 107	Boston – 103	Detroit – 104	Vancouver – 117
Philadelphia – 106	Tampa Bay – 103	Nashville – 99	San Jose – 105
Pittsburgh – 106	Montreal – 96	Chicago – 97	Anaheim – 99
New York Rangers – 93	Buffalo – 96	Dallas – 95	Phoenix – 99

Some notes about 2010/2011:

All the teams in the “old East” make it under the new format. Dallas qualifies this time around; the Los Angeles Kings don’t.
Vancouver and Phoenix play each other for the second year in a row.
Washington and the New York Rangers still play each other in the first round (Washington won 4-1 originally).

Final note on the new realignment, and how it impacts playoff matchups/qualifying:

Old Alignment		New Alignment
# of different playoff teams, 2005-2010	28 (only Toronto and Florida fail to make the playoffs)	# of different playoff teams, 2005-10	29 (only Edmonton fails to make the playoffs)
# of different first round matchups, 2005-2010	39	# of different first round matchups, 2005-10	34

Out of Town Notebook: Is Victor Hedman the New Eric Brewer?

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Dec 032011

When the Tampa Bay Lightning signed Victor Hedman to a 5-year, $20 million deal earlier in the week, there weren’t too many people complaining.

The online community, particularly Tampa Bay fans, applauded Steve Yzerman for keeping Hedman’s cost relatively low. According to the consensus, $4 million a year for 5 years is a great price for an improving, future franchise defenseman.

There’s no question Hedman is an improving player, particularly on the defensive side of the game.

But franchise cornerstone? Someone who dominates at both ends of the ice?

I’m not so sure Hedman has that in him.

I decided to compare eight under-24 blueliners to Hedman. I averaged each player’s career totals (up to December 1st) out over an 82-game schedule to create a fair comparison.

Born	Name	G	A	P	+/-	PIM	Shots	Hits	Blocked Shots	Giveaways	Takeaways
1988	E. Johnson	8	29	36	-11	56	167	93	103	49	37
1989	D. Doughty	11	31	42	4	60	140	134	97	75	25
1989	L. Schenn	4	16	20	-5	58	115	225	143	71	35
1990	V. Hedman	4	19	23	-3	80	105	68	106	58	34
1990	Z. Bogosian	9	16	25	-13	61	163	156	110	51	41
1990	T. Myers	10	31	41	4	37	115	101	121	79	36
1990	A. Pieterangelo	11	27	38	12	23	161	56	112	34	45
1990	E. Karlsson	10	38	48	-19	46	191	49	70	77	54

Then, I ranked each player 1 to 8 in each category (1 if they ranked first in the category and 8 if they ranked last) and added up their scores.

Rank	Name	Salary after 2011/2012	G	A	P	+/-	PIM	Shots	Hits	Blocked Shots	Giveaways	Takeaways	Total
1	Pieterangelo	$3.16 M	1	5	4	1	1	4	7	3	1	2	29
2	Myers	$5.5 M	3	2	3	2	2	6	4	2	8	5	37
3	Karlsson	RFA	3	1	1	8	3	1	8	8	7	1	41
4	Doughty	$7.0 M	1	2	2	2	6	5	3	7	6	8	42
5	E. Johnson	RFA	6	4	5	6	4	2	5	6	2	4	44
6	Bogosian	$2.5 M	5	7	6	7	7	3	2	4	3	3	47
7	Schenn	$3.6 M	7	7	8	5	5	6	1	1	5	6	51
8	Hedman	$4.0 M	7	6	7	4	8	8	6	5	4	7	62

Yikes, Hedman-fans.

According to this list, Hedman actually comes in last, behind the much-maligned Erik Johnson, Zach Bogosian and Luke Schenn.

Granted, this isn’t exactly the most scientific method. For example, Alex Pieterangelo is probably helped from having played only one full season’s worth of games. However, I think the exercise fairly highlights the biggest flaw in Hedman’s game – his offense.

When Hedman was drafted, he was described as a shifty and creative offensive prospect.

That just hasn’t materialized.

Will it?

Let’s take a quick look at the point production of some of the league’s better offensive defensemen after their first three years in the NHL.

Rank	Name	Salary after 2011/2012	G	A	P	+/-	PIM	Shots	Hits	Blocked Shots	Giveaways	Takeaways	Total
1	Pieterangelo	$3.16 M	1	5	4	1	1	4	7	3	1	2	29
2	Myers	$5.5 M	3	2	3	2	2	6	4	2	8	5	37
3	Karlsson	RFA	3	1	1	8	3	1	8	8	7	1	41
4	Doughty	$7.0 M	1	2	2	2	6	5	3	7	6	8	42
5	E. Johnson	RFA	6	4	5	6	4	2	5	6	2	4	44
6	Bogosian	$2.5 M	5	7	6	7	7	3	2	4	3	3	47
7	Schenn	$3.6 M	7	7	8	5	5	6	1	1	5	6	51
8	Hedman	$4.0 M	7	6	7	4	8	8	6	5	4	7	62

Ouch again.

Look, Hedman is young enough that there is still considerable room for him to grow as an NHL player.

But it’s fair to say there are already signs that he may never become the offensive player he was expected to be.

Hedman looks like another Zbynek Michalek (0.28 points/game), Marc Staal (0.25 pts/gm) or Eric Brewer (0.28 pts/gm).

That’s not a bad career path, but it’s not exactly the one he was hyped to have when drafted.

THOUGHTS ON THE FLY

Even after a 6-5 loss to Nashville, and some weak defensive play lately, I’d still pick the Canucks right now to win the Northwest Division.
Just one man’s opinion, but here’s betting Paul Maurice’s career as an NHL head coach is over.
One of the definitions of madness is repeating something over and over with the expectation of a different result. That’s why it’s crazy the Washington Capitals replaced Bruce Boudreau with Dale Hunter. The Caps front-office wanted Boudreau to be tougher on his players, and he was this year. It didn’t work. What makes anyone think Hunter, who it seems is being asked to coach the same way (limited minutes so far for Ovechkin, for example), will have any more success? Sure, Hunter was a former NHL player, but many of his players were toddlers when he had his best days in the league. And remember – junior coaches don’t exactly have the best track record jumping straight into the NHL.
Meanwhile, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Bruce Boudreau get a lot out of the Ducks. Randy Carlyle was hard on his players; Boudreau is a player’s coach.
Is it too soon to anoint Jhonas Enroth an NHL starting goalie? The Sabres have 3 wins in 10 games since Ryan Miller’s injury. Enroth’s five-hole at times during this stretch has been Allan Bester-esque.
Beware Western Conference – the Red Wings are heating up. They hit an estimated 569 posts against Buffalo, moving the puck around like they had a 60-minute powerplay.
Here’s Forbes’ report on NHL franchises. My favourite stat – teams are worth 47% more than they were before the lockout. Also: the Jets are worth 21% more playing in Winnipeg than they were in Atlanta.
Speaking of franchise values, hard to disagree with the common sentiment right now that the league’s headed for another work stoppage. NHL owners must be looking at the NFL and NBA deals and licking their lips.
A quiet milestone – the NHL has reached its 1000th shootout. Most goals – Jussi Jokinen. Most attempts – Brad Richards.
Before Friday night’s game, Edmonton’s Ryan Nugent-Hopkins was on an 89-point pace over a full season. That’s the most rookie points since Sidney Crosby (102) and Alex Ovechkin (106) in 2005-06.
For those counting the hours until there are changes in Columbus, it should be noted the team is 5-3-2 (not including their result against Edmonton) since Jeff Carter returned to the lineup November 12th.

Out of Town Notebook: The Real Eastern Conference Quarter Pole Standings

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Nov 282011

In part one we looked at the first quarter for teams in the Western Conference. Now let’s take a look at the East.

Eastern Conference

1. New York Rangers – 27 Points

Powerplay: 25 / Penalty Kill: 9 / Goals For: 15 / Goals Against: 2

What’s working: Henrik Lundquist for starters. He’s the biggest reason why the team is among the league leaders in goals against. In the absence of Marc Staal (concussion), Ryan McDonagh and Dan Girardi have capably stepped up on the blueline, while defenseman Michael Del Zotto has re-found his game. Marian Gaborik has gotten hot in November, and suddenly the Rangers have two lines that can score. Interestingly, Brad Richards and Gaborik aren’t regular linemates.

What’s not: The Wojtek Wolski experiment looks like a bust. Brandon Dubinsky only has one goal, although he’s contributing in other areas of the game. The team is taking too many penalties. Also worrisome is the shots for/against ratio is roughly -5. The powerplay hasn’t found its groove yet.

2. Boston – 26 Points

Powerplay: 14 / Penalty Kill: 10 / Goals For: 3 / Goals Against: 3

What’s working: Boston continues to take advantage of its depth, rolling four lines, three of them capable of offense. Tyler Seguin has taken a Steven Stamkos-esque leap in his second year, which has offset the departures of Mark Recchi and Michael Ryder. The Bruins have found their intimidating, rough style again after a slow start, and rode it to a franchise record winning streak. Joe Corvo has already made a bigger positive impact on the team than the defenseman he replaced, Tomas Kaberle, ever did. Tim Thomas and Tuukka Rask have played like the elite goaltending tandem they are.

What’s not: Benoit Pouliot has been prone to mental lapses and taken dumb penalties, and isn’t anything more than a fourth-liner at this point. David Krejci has the worst plus/minus on the team and has struggled to find his offensive game.

3. Washington – 25 Points

Powerplay: 16 / Penalty Kill: 20 / Goals For: 4 / Goals Against: 22

What’s working: This remains a team that can score, even if they aren’t the run-and-gun Caps that fans fell in love with years ago. Jason Chimera has had the best start to a season of his career, while Troy Brouwer and Joel Ward have been immediate, physical contributors.

What’s not: Bruce Boudreau, since he’s now been replaced by Dale Hunter. Alex Ovechkin and Alex Semin are struggling, with both players regularly taking shifts off. Semin, of all people, leads the team in penalties. Quite honestly, their performances to date place each of them on any current NHL list of “most-overpaid players.” Starter Tomas Vokoun has been better but not exactly a world-beater. Back-up goalie Michael Neuvirth has been awful. The special teams have started slow, likely due to the fact that Mike Green is once again battling the injury bug.

4. Pittsburgh – 25 Points

Powerplay: 12 / Penalty Kill: 4 / Goals For: 11 / Goals Against: 11

What’s working: Sidney Crosby’s head for starters. Getting him back in the lineup vaults the team from contender status to Stanley Cup favourites. Jordan Staal has also taken another step in his development and is on a 40-goal pace. Steve Sullivan has brought imagination, if not consistent results, to the Penguins powerplay. James Neal leads the team in scoring.

What’s not: Very little, although the team’s lack of blueline depth has been exposed at times, particularly when Brooks Orpik or Zbynek Michalek has been out of the lineup.

5. Philadelphia – 25 Points

Powerplay: 13 / Penalty Kill: 13 / Goals For: 1 / Goals Against: 21

What’s working: The offense, big-time. The top three lines are creative and physical. Claude Giroux is an early season MVP candidate. The Jaromir Jagr experiment has been a success, although he’s been bothered by groin issues of late. Rookie Sean Couturier is the team’s top penalty killer while another rookie, Matt Read, has looked like a 10-year veteran on the ice.

What’s not: Three other young forwards, James van Riemsdyk, Wayne Simmonds and Jakub Voracek, have been inconsistent. Highly-touted Brayden Schenn has been a non-factor at the NHL-level and is a team-worst -5. The Flyers remain undisciplined, although a solid penalty kill has helped in that area. Team speed, particularly from the defense, seems lacking.

6. Florida – 25 Points

Powerplay: 7 / Penalty Kill: 14 / Goals For: 5 / Goals Against: 10

What’s working: The Sawgrass Express line (Kris Versteeg, Stephen Weiss, Tomas Fleischmann) has been one of the top lines in the NHL. The defense has really gelled. Brian Campbell is rejuvenated, and along with second-year man Dmitry Kulikov they represent two of the better puck-moving defenseman in the league to-date. Jason Garrison has been a primary beneficiary, with his cannon of a shot becoming the focal point on the team’s improved powerplay. Quietly, Jose Theodore is playing his best hockey in years. Much like in Dallas, rookie coach Kevin Dineen has this “group of castoffs” playing each night to prove their detractors were wrong about them.

What’s not: As bad as David Booth is playing for the Canucks, at least he’s playing. Mikael Samuelsson, acquired in the trade, has yet to suit up for Florida and is still recovering from sports hernia issues. Meanwhile, Marco Sturm, the other player in the deal, looks washed up. Free agent Scottie Upshall has been a bust.

7. Toronto – 24 Points

Powerplay: 6 / Penalty Kill: 28 / Goals For: 6 / Goals Against: 25

What’s working: Toronto’s best players have been just that for the first time in a few seasons. Both Phil Kessel and Joffrey Lupul came into the year in the best shape of their lives, and they’ve taken their offensive game to the next level. Dion Phaneuf remains a risk-taker, but on most nights his gambles have paid off and contributed to Leaf victories. He’s the stir that mixes the Leafs drink. Before getting hurt James Reimer had continued his strong play from last season. The powerplay is greatly improved under assistant coach (and notorious xs and os man) Scott Gordon. Tim Connolly, when healthy, has been the team’s best centreman at both ends of the ice. Finally, Toronto is getting strong contributions from its AHL call-ups. In fact, an improved-skating Joe Colborne has probably leapt Nazem Kadri as the team’s most promising prospect.

What’s not: The penalty kill remains a huge weakness. Luke Schenn played the worst hockey of his NHL career earlier in the year. The second line (Clarke MacArthur-Mikhail Grabovski- Nik Kulemin) has been wildly inconsistent.

8. Buffalo – 24 Points

Powerplay: 11 / Penalty Kill: 2 / Goals For: 14 / Goals Against: 13

What’s working: Ryan Miller and Johnas Enroth have given the Sabres solid goaltending, with Enroth actually outplaying his partner so far. Thomas Vanek and Jason Pominville have played like All-Stars and are carrying the team offensively. Rookie Luke Adam rocketed out of the gate and has remained a contributor.

What’s not: The defense, supposedly improved with the additions of Robyn Regehr and Christian Ehrhoff, has been a massive disappointment. In fact, there’s a lot of Wade Redden-ish smell coming off Ehrhoff’s first 20 games with the Sabres. Tyler Myers hasn’t shaken the inconsistency of last season either. Meanwhile the other off-season free agent splash, Ville Leino, looks lost and is on pace for a ~20 point season. Finally, the smallish Sabres have been pushed around a bit, and team toughness has become a question mark.

9. New Jersey – 23 Points

Powerplay: 28 / Penalty Kill: 1 / Goals For: 23 / Goals Against: 15

What’s working: Patrick Elias has found the fountain of youth and looks four years younger on the ice. Backup Johan Hedberg has given the team strong goaltending and has played much more than expected. New coach Peter DeBoer has tweaked the system he had in Florida and the Devils are using their speed to play a good team defense. Rookie Adam Henrique has come out of nowhere to give the Devils a second line scoring threat they haven’t had in some time. The penalty kill has been formidable.

What’s not: Someone tell Ilya Kovalchuk the season has started. He remains an enigma and the worst contract in the NHL. Zach Parise has had a slow start after missing most of last year with injury. Together, the struggles of these two players have crippled the team’s attack. The Devils still aren’t getting any offense from the blueline either, which is killing their powerplay. Finally, nothing Martin Brodeur has shown signifies he’s a top-15 goalie in the league anymore.

10. Ottawa – 21 Points

Powerplay: 3 / Penalty Kill: 21 / Goals For: 10 / Goals Against: 28

What’s working: Coach Paul Maclean is getting a lot out of the most skilled players in his lineup. Jason Spezza is arguably playing the best hockey of his career, while Erik Karlsson looks like the new Mike Green. Even Sergei Gonchar has shown a heartbeat and a pulse. Along with Milan Michaluk, these four have got the Senators powerplay humming.

What’s not: Pretty much anything associated with the defensive side of the game outside of Zach Smith (who’s become a strong 3rd line player). Goalie Craig Anderson hasn’t come up with enough key saves, and both Karlsson and Gonchar continue to struggle in their own zone. None of the team’s forward prospects have run with the opportunity to play important minutes either, leaving Ottawa without much secondary scoring.

11. Montreal – 21 Points

Powerplay: 20 / Penalty Kill: 3 / Goals For: 18 / Goals Against: 8

What’s working: Carey Price has given Montreal great goaltending on most nights. Max Paccioretty has lived up to pre-season billing as a breakout scoring candidate. Lars Eller has played well enough to warrant more ice-time, perhaps even a top-six role. The penalty kill has been excellent. Tomas Plekanec remains the team’s most important forward.

What’s not: With Andrei Markov delayed in his return to the lineup, Montreal’s young defense has struggled. P. K. Subban has had a taste of the sophomore slump, although his play recently has picked up. With the team failing to score much, the lack of production from Scott Gomez is becoming a bigger and bigger distraction.

12. Tampa Bay – 20 Points

Powerplay: 19 / Penalty Kill: 17 / Goals For: 17 / Goals Against: 26

What’s working: Vincent Lecavalier is having a bit of a bounce-back season and is on pace for 40-goals. Steven Stamkos and Martin St. Louis remain dangerous scoring threats whenever they’re on the ice. Matt Gilroy has been a pleasent surprise on defense, leading blueliners with a +5 rating. Marc-Andre Bergeron has entered beast mode as a powerplay threat.

What’s not: Outside Lecavalier, Stamkos and St. Louis, the forwards aren’t scoring. Teddy Purcell, Ryan Malone and Steve Downie are not contributing as expected. Meanwhile, Brett Connolley doesn’t look ready for a top-six forward role. Dwayne Roloson’s goaltending has been problematic to the point that Mathieu Garon should probably be the starter. Defensively, Eric Brewer and Victor Hedman have had quarter season’s they’d probably like to forget. Consistency has been another issue, with the team no-showing a few games (7-1 loss to Toronto; 5-1 loss to the Islanders) and periods more than at any stretch last season.

13. Winnipeg – 19 Points

Powerplay: 8 / Penalty Kill: 19 / Goals For: 13 / Goals Against: 24

What’s working: They’re selling a lot of merchandise. That’s something, right? In all seriousness, Kyle Wellwood has been surprisingly effective and leads the team in points. Jim Slater and Tanner Glass have combined to give the Jets a pretty good third line. Evander Kane looks like a 30-goal scorer, while Alex Burmistrov has shown glimpses of becoming a modern Igor Larionov.

What’s not: Remember the problems the Atlanta Thrashers had? Poor defense and bad goaltending? Nothing’s really changed, although part of the blueline problem has been due to injury. Zach Bogosian and Dustin Byfuglien have remained inconsistent, although Byfuglien has picked up his play of late. Ondrej Pavelec is running out of time to prove he can be a starting NHL goalie, and has been outplayed by Chris Mason.

14. Carolina – 15 Points

Powerplay: 29 / Penalty Kill: 18 / Goals For: 26 / Goals Against: 29

What’s working: Cam Ward is giving the team a chance to win every night. Jeff Skinner has avoided the sophomore slump. Jay Harrison is playing too many minutes but brings a physical presence to the Hurricanes blueline. And that’s pretty much it. Sorry Hurricanes fans.

What’s not: The strategy of re-creating the post-lockout Maple Leafs isn’t working (Harrison, Paul Maurice, Alex Ponikarovsky, Jiri Tlusty, Tim Brent, Tomas Kaberle). Kaberle is goalless and proving his struggles with the Bruins last year weren’t a mirage. Paul Maurice, who arguably mishandled some of the young talent available (not named Jeff Skinner), and who’s record of mediocrity as an NHL head coach has finally caught up with him. Kirk Muller is a great hire by the ‘Canes. Clearly something’s up with Eric Staal, who’s playing the worst hockey of his career, and is a big reason why Carolina is a cellar-dweller. The team just doesn’t score enough.

15. New York Islanders – 14 Points

Powerplay: 22 / Penalty Kill: 23 / Goals For: 30 / Goals Against: 27

What’s working: John Tavares, Matt Moulson and Michael Grabner haven’t taken steps back offensively. When he’s played Al Montoya has been excellent. Frans Nielsen remains an underrated defensive player, and leads the team at +1.

What’s not: Everything else. This looks an awful lot like a team that’s abandoned its coach. Veterans Steve Staios, Marty Reasoner and Brian Rolston have been mediocre-to-terrible, while many of the team’s other young forwards (including Kyle Okposo and Josh Bailey) aren’t competing on a nightly basis. Nino Niederreitter isn’t even getting a chance to compete – he’s been a healthy scratch over the last week amongst rumours of another injury. Evgeni Nabokov has been average; Rick DiPietro has been bad. Outside of Calgary, this is the other NHL team in most need of a roster tear-down.

Shinny: CHBWFHP Update and Can Someone Tell Wayne Gretzky His Daughter is Blowing Up Twitter?

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Nov 252011

We’re back! Did you miss us? (Don’t answer that question.)

Let’s check in on where we stand in the inaugural Canucks Hockey Blog Writers Fantasy Hockey Pool (or as it shall be dubbed this week, the “Can Someone Please Tell Wayne Gretzky His Daughter is Blowing Up Twitter Invitational”).

Remember, you can check out our pool here.

Onto the standings:

1. 2 Sedins, 0 Cups (Tom) – 95 points

As 2 Sedins, 0 Cups continues its historic run towards the first CHBWFHP championship, I would just like to make it known that this win is all the more sweet because it’s taking place in a world where The Muppets matter again. Welcome back Kermit. Call me, Miss Piggy.

Taking this one step further, if winning this pool meant I could have one wish, I would wish for the world to be rid of the following: The Kardashians; anyone who’s chosen to spend quality time with the Kardashians; anyone who’s bought an item of Kardashian merchandise; snakes (they’re evil); Jay Leno (he’s evil); downtown Vancouver bike lanes; Blake Price, Shia Labeouf; George Lucas (but the Star Wars franchise can stay); the Phoenix Coyotes, Florida Panthers and Columbus Blue Jackets (who would miss them?); soybean oil in movie theatre popcorn butter (it makes me and thousands of others sick); Iran (not quite sure how its existence benefits me); the instigator rule in hockey; NHL 4th lines; Howie Mandel; passwords that expire; the sound styrofoam makes when it rubs something (1:13 into the annoying video); the texture of Styrofoam; okay, all styrofoam; one-piece hockey sticks; Shawn Horcoff; this week’s episode of Parenthood; every episode of Desperate Housewives; bandwidth limits; TapouT, Affliction and all MMA-related clothing lines; VIP lines and seating areas; insincerity and shyness; foreign home-ownership/purchases in the Lower Mainland.

I mean, yeah, I guess I could have asked for world peace and an end to all disease, but those seem like really big asks. This stuff all seems like low-hanging fruit.

2. Mr. Haiku (Clay) – 88 points

It’s amazing how just one move can spark a team. By the end of October, I was dangerously close to slipping into 3rd place so I decided to make a move. By dropping Buffalo’s Tyler Ennis (who is still injured) for Zack Smith of the Senators, I solidified my hold on 2nd place with leader, 2 Sedins, 0 Cups, still within my sights. Smith has helped me in particular with PIMs and faceoff wins, although I’m already so far behind in faceoff wins that I’ve given up on that category already. I have balanced scoring led by Anze Kopitar, Daniel Sedin, Marian Hossa and Jeff Skinner and a decent back-end with Kris Letang and Ryan Suter. Tim Thomas has regained his goaltending form… too bad his real-life teammate took out my other goalie, Ryan Miller.

3a. Goose is my Wingman (Chris) – 72.5 points

Much like the disrespected characters Pete “Maverick” Mitchell and Nick “Goose” Bradshaw in Top Gun, I don’t often get the respect I’m due here at Canucks Hockey Blog. First it was all the writers laughing at my picks and telling me I’d finish last. (Well, guess who’s in third place today, hosers!) Or Lizz Moffatt telling me that I was a fat drunk boater (call me fat, call me drunk, but don’t call me a boater). And then in our last update, it was the diabolical Tom “I Love Red Light Racicot” Wakefield calling out Parminder Nagra.

Well, this writer has had enough. Moving forward, this writer’s ego is going to start writing cheques that his body WILL cash. And yes, he’s dangerous and you know how everyone likes bloggers who are dangerous. There is no bloody way I’ll let a bully like Tom pick on the winner of the 2004 Movieline Young Hollywood Awards Breakthrough Performance by a Female. That’s right. You’ve picked on the wrong actress, sir.

What will I do you ask? Well I’m going to call in Parminder’s best friend, Keira Knightley (another A-list actor), who in turn is going to send an email to her BFF, Johnny Depp, who played Captain Jack Sparrow. And well, Captain Jack then knocks on Michael Bolton’s door.

And then it’s on like donkey kong. DON. KEY. KONG!

Uhh… what was that? I was supposed to be talking about the CHB Writers Fantasy Hockey Pool? Aw crap.

3b. Church’s Chiggins (Ed) – 72.5 points

I don’t think anyone’s surprised that Sidney Crosby is still Sidney Crosby, but wow, four points in his first game in almost a year? I don’t think there’s any question he’s the best hockey player in the world. The only guy even in the same conversation would be Alex Ovechkin and maybe if you counted both Sedins as one player. However, if I was a NHL GM and we could draft all over again, there’s no way I’d pick anyone but Crosby to build a team around.

That assist on the Letang (or “The Tang” for those of you who don’t speak French) goal where he shook Jason Spezza out of his jock strap was just stunning. Hopefully he gets Malkin going as well. Malkin isn’t doing terrible but he isn’t setting the twine on fire.

My best move so far this season is picking up Tyler Seguin on the wire at the beginning. As much as I dislike the Bruins, they’ve been on fire winning 10 straight with Seguin as one of the team’s best offensive threat. I must have the most hated team in the pool now with another guy Canucks fans love to hate, Patrick Kane, leading in scoring… and I don’t have any Canucks on my team.

I’m not fired, am I?

5. The Hamhuis Ballards (JJ) – 69.5 points

Like the rest of the hockey world, I was excited at the news that Sidney Crosby had recovered a serious concussion and that he was returning after missing 11 months of action. It goes without saying that Sid the Kid’s a helluva hockey player – probably the best damn hockey player in the world.

On Monday, I cheered alongside Penguins fans when he stepped on the ice against the Islanders. After he made Andrew Macdonald look like the second coming of Dana Murzyn and scored a beaut of a goal on his first shot – just 5:31 into the game – I yelled out the same two words Sid did on the ice. By the time it was all said and done, he had 2 goals and 2 assists, and I, like every other hockey fan out there, couldn’t be happier for him.

At least I was until I realized that Tom, who was already leading the inaugural CHBWFHP by a large margin, had Crosby still stashed on his bench.

It’s like the President’s Trophy-winning, 2000/2001 Colorado Avalanche adding all-star Rob Blake. Or the NHL record, 62-win Detroit Red Wings adding 40-goal scorer, Brendan Shanahan, and 60-point defenseman, Larry Murphy. Or adding Taylor to The OC.

Dammit, Wakefield.

6. Kesler is my homeboy (Caylie) – 63.5 points

It was just a few weeks ago I was in 2nd place in the CHB pool. I was anxiously awaiting for Tom to email us about our thoughts on the pool. I was ready to brag about how I was leading in overall points (by players) and how I had jumped from last place to 2nd place in just a few short weeks. But he never emailed us. Fast forward to today, and I am once again in 6th place and have NOTHING to brag about.

I’m heading to Vegas and was debating making a few sports bets while I am there. All I know is that I won’t be betting on about half of my team. Rick Nash, are you seriously a minus-10? And how about that Tomas Kaberle guy? I thought he would be somewhat decent in Carolina, but boy was I wrong!

If I’ve learned one thing, it’s that if I’m ever in the top-3 again, I will immediately email Tom and encourage him to do a post on the pool, just so I can have my few minutes of glory.

7. Burrows Buddy (Lizz) – 61.5 points

Since she has nothing nice to say about this pool or where she is in the standings, Lizz didn’t submit her thoughts this week.

8. Hossa’s Samosas (Matt) – 53.5 points

Likewise, since submitting his thoughts would mean accepting that his pool team stinks, Matt chose to abstain from this week’s discussion.

Out of Town Notebook: Dealing with an Upper Body Injury

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Nov 182011

Sometimes in life you gotta play hurt. While fighting the flu bug, here now are this week’s thoughts on the fly:

Just in case Canucks fans have been living under a rock, here’s what Mark Recchi said about the most arrogant team he’s ever played against.
The great Terry Jones articulates what the current Edmonton Oilers freefall feels like.
If a goalie is going to roam outside the crease, they make themselves vulnerable to contact. Ryan Miller wasn’t trying to make a save in traffic at the edges of his crease – he was skating 10-15 feet away from the net. The only thing wrong with what Boston’s Milan Lucic did by bodychecking Miller was giving the contact a “little extra” with his arms/shoulders. Let’s protect goalies from the contact they can’t avoid, and remind them they’re fair game otherwise.
Grantland’s Katie Baker with her weekly round-up – some great links this week.
With the Washington Capitals visiting Winnipeg and Toronto, coverage of Alex Ovechkin’s pedestrian season has ramped up. With Sidney Crosby still out and Ovechkin less-than-dominant, the best player in the league right now just might be Jonathan Toews.
Meanwhile, Jaromir Jagr thinks Claude Giroux is knocking-on-the-door of the league’s best.
One reason why the Pittsburgh Penguins are amongst the best teams in the league? They control the neutral zone with speed, pressuring puck carriers so well defensively that opponents are forced to dump the puck in before they would like to. The Penguins then have an easy time recovering the puck and breaking out of their own zone.
If there’s one thing Mike Milbury knows, it’s how to kill a franchise. Not surprising then he thinks the Columbus Blue Jackets should trade Rick Nash.
All good teams have winning streaks. Championship teams find ways to win despite their poorest efforts. So goes the Boston Bruins, who have now won 7 straight games, and played what was arguably their worst game of the year against Columbus on Thursday.
Credit where credit is due – Matt Cooke’s transformation as a player is pretty impressive.
The demise of Ilya Bryzgalov has been greatly exaggerated. Since getting shelled and having a bit of a media meltdown against the Winnipeg Jets back on October 27th, Bryzgalov is 5-0-1, with a 1.65 goals against average and a .944 save percentage.
Meanwhile, Brygalov’s former teammates are ripping him for being a negative presence in the Coyotes locker room. You know what’s also a negative factor on team chemistry? Losing. And that’s something the Coyotes didn’t do very much when Ilya Bryzgalov was their goaltender. Things could have been much, much worse for Phoenix players than simply dealing with an difficult personality.
Final note on Bryzgalov’s current team, the Philadelphia Flyers – not sure their team speed is good enough, which makes them more vulnerable to trapping teams or teams with great speed and counter-attack.
Forwards still looking for their first goal of the season: Ales Hemsky (7 games); Jeff Carter (8 games); Scott Gomez (10 games); Sam Gagner (11 games); Kyle Okposo (14 games); Dustin Penner (14 games); Blake Comeau (0 points in 14 games); Marty Reasoner (16 games); Mattias Tedenby (16 games).
Loved this from the Leafs-Predators game.
Nikita Filatov, or “Filly,” probably doesn’t play in the NHL again either.
Paul Maurice is a nice guy but a bad coach. As the Hurricanes struggle, here’s a nice recap of potential coaching replacements if Carolina decides to fire their coach. Given how GM Jim Rutherford likes to keep things in-house, it wouldn’t surprise to see Jeff Daniels eventually take over the reigns.
The Toronto Maple Leafs are looking for goaltending. What if they had the solution but chose not to re-sign him? Cast-off J-S. Giguere is playing well for the struggling Colorado Avalanche, with a 1.98 goals against average to-date.
Speaking of the Maple Leafs, lots of talk about Wayne Gretzky fronting a U.S. bid for the franchise. While it’s a romantic notion, let’s remember that Gretzky is still owed $8 million by the NHL. Hard to imagine him returning to the league in any capacity until someone writes him a cheque.
From the department of weird stats – right now the Capitals have a better winning percentage when they give up the first goal of the game (.778%) than when they score the first goal (.375%).

Out of Town Notebook: Trap Debate and Thoughts on the Fly

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Nov 112011

One of the silliest debates to be waged across the NHL some time is Philadelphia’s “outrage” and in-game protest of Tampa’s 1-3-1 system.

From Mike Milbury walking off the air to a quickie TSN poll of league GMs siding with the Flyers, the Lightning are taking a lot of heat for their passive forecheck.

Here’s the thing.

1) The passive forecheck is employed all over the league, and has been for decades. Roughly half of all NHL teams use a 1-3-1 forecheck in their gameplan. The 70s Canadiens, the 80s Oilers, the 90s Red Wings – they all used a version of this system when necessary to win Stanley Cups.

2) The Lightning, for all the hoopla for employing a defensive system that’s ruining the game, sat 23rd this morning in the league in goals against per game; 24th in the league in shots against per game. We’re not exactly talking about a New Jersey Devils-esque juggernault when it comes to squeezing scoring opportunities out of the game.

Let’s remember, the NHL culture doesn’t exactly embrace innovation comfortably.

Lightning coach Guy Boucher, with his approach to the 1-3-1 system, his degree in sports psychology and his willingness to think differently about practices, off-days etc, is seen as a bit of an outsider. He’s made himself and his team a target for being different.

But he’s also doing what it takes for the Lightning to win games.

There are ways to beat the trap – by exiting the defensive zone with speed, or by moving the puck horizontally across the ice rather than vertically. That the Flyers chose to do neither, and simply stand around, was certainly a statement.

It was also absolutely ineffective, as Philadelphia lost the game 2-1.

Any debate that leads to more goals and more excitement in the NHL game is a positive thing.

But the Lightning shouldn’t be vilainized for their approach to the game.

The Flyers are just as much at fault, by basically refusing to compete.

THOUGHTS ON THE FLY

Loved this “how to beat the trap” diagram. Works great if, you know, everyone defending stands still.
So players on the Florida Panthers were tweeting about how cold it was in Winnipeg before their game against the Jets? It’s only November guys. There are still folks at the corner of Portage and Main in t-shirts. Can’t wait to read to read the tweets before their next visit to Manitoba January 21st.
One pro scout’s assessment of the Taylor Hall vs. Tyler Seguin debate: ”For me, Seguin is more creative with the puck. I actually wrote in one of my reports that Seguin, if he doesn’t have a shot, he’s got enough poise to make a play to a teammate. I don’t know if Hall has that ability. Hall is going to beat you north-south with his speed and quickness down low. Seguin’s got a little more dimension to his game from a creativity standpoint.”
Magnus Paajarvi has become a healthy scratch in Edmonton. Other sophomores struggling: Buffalo’s Tyler Ennis (0 points), Anaheim’s Cam Fowler (-6 despite a greater focus on the defensive side of the game), New Jersey’s Mattias Tedenby (0 goals, 3 assists).
Weird seeing Senator John McCain in a Coyotes jersey talking hockey strategy, 9/11 and the World Series, among other things, between periods on the Coyotes-Habs broadcast. As nice as it is to see him vocally supportive of the hometown team, couldn’t he solve the Phoenix ownership mess with a couple of strategic phone calls to well-off friends?
Add HP Pavillion in San Jose to the list of NHL arenas where fans boo Dany Heatley. For what it’s worth, Devin Setoguchi was cheered when he and Heatley returned as members of the Wild on Thursday.
Nice piece on former teammates Brent Burns and Nick Schultz.
So tired of the “will he or won’t he play” coverage of Sidney Crosby.
Things that don’t make sense in the NHL #2589: Teams that keep rookie players past the 9-game mark (thus burning through the first year of their NHL contract) and then send the player to the press box. The Panthers have done this with Erik Gudbranson, and the Blue Jackets did this recently with Ryan Johansen.
Speaking of the Blue Jackets, their worst start in franchise history has led coach Scott Arniel to change the team’s approach mid-season from a puck-pursuit, up-tempo style to a conservative trap approach. The team’s loss to Chicago shows this is still very much a work in progress.
Two ways to fix the Toronto Maple Leafs penalty kill – improve communication between forwards and defensemen on the kill, and find some quicker players to perform it. Leafs penalty killers aren’t elite skaters, so they don’t pressure the puck carrier like most teams. Instead, they end up in their box formation, which other teams continue to pick apart.
Colorado’s win against the Islanders may have saved Joe Sacco’s job. Interestingly, the team was down 3-0 until the Avs called a timeout and defenseman Shane O’Brien let his teammates have it. J.S. Giguere, who called the game a “must-win”, also made a huge save off of Michael Grabner with one second left in regulation.
Speaking of Colorado defenseman, their best right now might just be Ryan Wilson, who’s been very effective physically and is on a 45-point pace.
Final note on the Avalanche – in contrast to the Maple Leafs, Colorado’s too aggressive on the penalty kill. It’s why they’re 27th in the league in this category.
The Islanders and Blue Jackets are the only teams left in the NHL without a road victory. One reason for the Islanders struggles – they lack team toughness, particularly in the top-six. And this includes Kyle Okposo, who could play a Brendan Morrow-style game, but has instead struggled out-of-the-gate (0 goals in 13 games).
Katie Baker’s latest Grantland column includes a link to Paulina Gretzky’s best Twitter pics that most adult males will appreciate.

Out of Town Notebook: A Modest Proposal for NHL Realignment

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Nov 042011

Dear Gary (aka Bettman-in-da-house, aka Mr. Commish, aka Saviour-of-Winnipeg),

Not to go all Peaches and Herb (or Jeremy Roenick), but “realignment and it feels so good!”

NHL realignment is the hot talk around the league right now, and I know reviews are mixed concerning your latest plan to re-shape the NHL.

Personally, I like what you’ve reportedly done:

Eastern Conference
Division 1	Division 2
Philadelphia	Det/CBJ
Washington	Montreal
New York Rangers	Ottawa
New York Islanders	Boston
New Jersey	Buffalo
Carolina	Toronto
Tampa Bay	Pittsburgh
Florida

Western Conference
Division 1	Division 2
Det/CBJ	Vancouver
Winnipeg	Edmonton
Chicago	Calgary
Dallas	Colorado
Nashville	Phoenix
St. Louis	Los Angeles
Minnesota	Anaheim
	San Jose

The first round of the playoffs features divisional play (1 vs 4, 2 vs 3).

After the first round, the remaining teams are seeded 1-4, with 1 playing 4, 2 vs 3, etc.

Now, the Penguins and Flyers hate this proposal, because they’ve got a good rivalry going that fills their rinks, and playing in different divisions will hurt that.

Teams in the proposed eight-team divisions also have a gripe, because mathematically they have a smaller chance of making the playoffs than teams in a seven-team division.

But you know what Gar (can I call you Gar, as in Danny Gare?), I think you should tell these complainers to stuff it. Your proposed plan reduces travel, solves most (but not all) of the league’s geographic issues, and doesn’t do too much to upset most of the NHL’s current/historic rivalries.

Listen. I’m in a charitable mood. I like what you’ve done for hockey in Edmonton and Winnipeg. I like the salary cap era.

Here are two tweaks that take your plan to the next level.

Tweak #1 – Level the playing field

The biggest gripe I’ve seen outside of Pittsburgh and Philadelphia involves the notion of 8-team divisions and 7-team divisions competing for the same number of playoff spots (4).

That’s easy to fix: make both divisions in each conference the same size. The Eastern Conference gets 16 teams, the Western Conference 14 teams:

Eastern Conference
Division 1	Division 2
Philadelphia	Detroit
Washington	Montreal
New York Rangers	Ottawa
New York Islanders	Boston
New Jersey	Buffalo
Carolina	Toronto
Tampa Bay	Pittsburgh
Florida	Columbus

Western Conference
Division 1	Division 2
Colorado	Vancouver
Winnipeg	Edmonton
Chicago	Calgary
Dallas	Phoenix
Nashville	Los Angeles
St. Louis	Anaheim
Minnesota	San Jose

The first round of the playoffs still features divisional play (1 vs 4, 2 vs 3). After the first round, the remaining teams are seeded 1-4, with 1 playing 4, 2 vs 3, etc.

With this small tweak, every team in each Conference has the same odds of making the playoffs. Columbus joins Detroit moving to the East, where both teams geographically should be and want to be. Colorado moves to the “Central-esque” division, where it probably could be if you ever looked at a map of all NHL teams.

Sure, someone may suggest that there’s a greater chance of making the playoffs in the Western Conference than the Eastern Conference. You know what I say to them, Gar? That’s the price you pay for saving thousands of dollars on travel costs, you cheap bastards.

Actually, there’s only one issue with this tweak.

What the heck happens if you have to move the Coyotes out of Phoenix?

Yes Gar, I know that will never happen. I know you’ve been spending the last few years trying to decide which of the 100s of potential owners you want to give the Coyotes to so that the team can stay in Phoenix.

But if, god forbid, you have to move Phoenix, you’ll probably have to move them East (to say, Quebec City? Quelle surprise!). This means you have to, right now, keep Columbus in the West. (Why Columbus? Because they’re still one of the newbie franchises around the board table.)

So, here’s how you solve the 8-team/7-team disparity, while revolutionizing your sport.

Tweak #2 – Let Teams Pick Their Playoff Opponent

Eastern Conference
Division 1	Division 2
Philadelphia	Detroit
Washington	Montreal
New York Rangers	Ottawa
New York Islanders	Boston
New Jersey	Buffalo
Carolina	Toronto
Tampa Bay	Pittsburgh
Florida

Western Conference
Division 1	Division 2
Columbus	Vancouver
Winnipeg	Edmonton
Chicago	Calgary
Dallas	Colorado
Nashville	Phoenix
St. Louis	Los Angeles
Minnesota	Anaheim
	San Jose

The four Conference teams with the next best records get the final four playoff spots and the top four teams select their first round opponent. Division winner with the best record picks first. Then the other Division winner. Then the second-place team with the best record. Then the other second-place team gets whoever’s left.

In the second round, teams are reseeded 1-4 based on regular season performance, with 1 vs 4, 2 vs 3.

Think about the possibilities that result from having teams choose their playoff opponent.

First of all, winning a division or conference would suddenly matter quite a bit. The NHL would reward the best regular season teams by giving them some control – whether it be reduced travel or a weaker opponent. The 11 remaining conference teams would also have equal odds of becoming one of the final four playoff teams – eliminating the eight-team, seven-team divisional bias.

There would be added buzz in April and March as fans talk about potential matchups and seeding races. Instantly, rivalries would be created or renewed once selections are made. Pittsburgh and Philadelphia are mad because they don’t play each other as often? Well, problem solved – one can choose to play the other in the first round if they have a good regular season.

Gar, you could take this idea and create another television event, one that would be unique to the North American team sporting market. It would be a professional sports version of the NCAA’s Selection Sunday event. It would be just like the MMA or WWE, where opponents choose one another all the time because it always delivers a compelling storyline.

Mr. Commish, I offer this idea free of charge…although I wouldn’t mind having a division named after me. Or maybe I’ll just take a lifetime invite to the Winter Classic. It’s something we can negotiate later.

You’re welcome.

THOUGHTS ON THE FLY

Isn’t this about the time that the Oilers start falling back to earth? And yet, they played a terrific road game against the Kings, giving up only 19 shots.
Same thing can be said about the Toronto Maple Leafs, who are amazingly in first place in the Eastern Conference right now. Then again, it’s been a long time since the Maple Leafs had two scoring lines going like they do right now (Joffrey Lupul-Tim Connolly-Phil Kessel; Clarke MacArthur-Mikael Grabovski-Nik Kulemin).
Watching the Blue Jackets-Leafs game, it looked like Leaf shooters were targeting Steve Mason’s blocker-side with great success (4 goals on 11 shots).
Speaking of Columbus, this is the earliest they’ve ever gotten to 10 losses. A coaching change is on the way, but Ken Hitchcock isn’t the solution. The Blue Jackets are not strong enough in goal or on defense to play the conservative style Hitchcock demands. At the same time, he hasn’t shown much success coaching younger players, and future of this team is in its prospects.
At the same time, anyone who is suggesting Craig Button is a viable candidate for the Blue Jackets front office should give their head a shake. He was a league-worst level GM in Calgary. Lest we forget the trading of J-S Giguere and Marc Savard for bags of pucks, the release of Martin St. Louis and the signing of Roman Turek to a mega-contract.
I wonder how folks are feeling about the Erik Johnson for Chris Stewart/Kevin Shattenkirk trade these days? Johnson looks a lot like Bryan McCabe – a big shooter, decent skater with poor defensive instincts. At least McCabe was physical – Johnson plays a Jay Boumeester-like soft defense. Things aren’t puppy dogs and ice cream in St. Louis though either where Chris Stewart has gotten off to a very slow start (2 goals and 3 points in 11 games). In fact, right now the best player might just be Kevin Shattenkirk, who has taken another step, evolving into an intelligent, two-way defenseman playing alongside Alex Pieterangelo.
CBC is counting suspensions and concussions this year so you don’t have to.
Colorado’s Paul Stastny has yet to score a point at home this year.
Mike Smith has been very good for the Coyotes thus far. Makes you wonder what went wrong in Tampa?
Speaking of Phoenix, another factor in their early season success is the play of defensemen David Schlemko and Oliver Ekman-Larsson. Ekman-Larsson is becoming a factor at both ends of the ice, and looks more and more like a player you build a team around. Schlemko is strong skater who doesn’t make mistakes with the puck.
Kudos to the Predators for inking Pekka Rinne to a 7-year/$49-million contract. Rinne is an elite goaltender, and having him signed long-term means Nashville has an important cornerstone in place. This probably means that one of Shea Weber or Ryan Suter is gone, especially since the Predators have some young depth at defense. It also wouldn’t surprise if Rinne’s $7 million annual salary becomes the defacto ceiling for Predator player contracts.
One last Predators note – while the media (particularly in Canada) portray Nashville as hockey backwater, it’s nice to see the team showing it’s willing to spend to build a contender. Predator fans have more trust in the franchise today than they did yesterday.
Chicago may just be the best team in the league right now. They’re scoring goals despite a terrible powerplay (8.7%, second-last in the league).
Yes, the Minnesota Wild are getting strong goaltending. No, they are not getting the production they’d like out of Marek Zidlicky. Zidlicky wasn’t very good last year either, and certainly doesn’t seem like a top-line defenseman anymore. That no-movement, modified no-trade clause in his last contract is starting to look like a big, heavy anchor around GM Chuck Fletcher’s neck.

Out-of-Town Notebook: 2011/2012 Season Predictions and Prognostications

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Oct 062011

After more than a month of review, analysis, and rankings, it’s time to predict what will actually happen in the upcoming NHL season.

If you take all things into consideration, one thing becomes abundantly clear – parity. No team is very strong at each position (coach, goalie, defence, forward), and most teams are only a shade better or worse than another.

It looks like all the same teams that made the playoffs last year have a good chance of making it again this year. As we’ve discussed though, it’s rare that there’s so little change in the standings from year-to-year. Injuries therefore will be the biggest factor in determining who plays on in April and who doesn’t.

This time last year I predicted Boston as the Stanley Cup champion. Read on to find out this year’s predicted winner:

Western Conference

Vancouver 110-115 points
Anaheim 105-110
Nashville 100-105
Chicago 100-105
San Jose 90-95
Detroit 90-95
St. Louis 90-95
Los Angeles 90-95
Calgary 80-85
Edmonton 75-80
Colorado 70-75
Dallas 70-75
Phoenix 70-75
Minnesota 65-70
Columbus 55-60

Notes on the above:

Surprisingly, I have the Predators rated the best team in the Conference (based on very strong goaltending, defence and coaching scores). Nashville plays in a brutally tough division though. Vancouver plays in the weakest division in the league, and that should lead them to another 1st place showing.
I have Chicago, LA and Vancouver rated roughly the same. I don’t have a non-playoff team rated anywhere near the top-8 teams in the West.
Could be significantly better than they’re ranked: San Jose (if Niemi plays a full season like his half-season last year); Colorado (if the kids are healthy and Varlamov is a legit goalie); St. Louis (if Halak is healthy and the youth take the next step).
Could be significantly worse than they’re ranked: Anaheim (if any of their core gets hurt they have very little depth); Detroit (if Jimmy Howard is only adequate and age catches up to the team); Phoenix (if their goaltending is as weak as expected).
Could miss the playoffs: Their division is so tough, a slow start or injury troubles could kill St. Louis, Detroit, Chicago or Nashville’s playoff chances.
Could make the playoffs with some luck: Calgary (if Mikka Kiprusof has some magic left, Iginla stays healthy and they incredibly find some secondary scoring).

Eastern Conference

Washington 110-115
Boston 105-110
Pittsburgh 105-110
Philadelphia 100-105
Buffalo 100-105
Montreal 90-95
NY Rangers 90-95
Tampa Bay 85-90
New Jersey 80-85
Toronto 80-85
Carolina 75-80
NY Islanders 70-75
Winnipeg 70-75
Ottawa 60-65
Florida 55-60

Notes on the above:

Pittsburgh is the highest rated team in the Conference, but its close between them, Boston and Washington. Given the weakness of Washington’s division, the Capitals are likely to take first place.
I think the travel schedule of teams in the Southeast Division will have a negative impact on how those teams compete in the standings.
Could be significantly better than they’re ranked: New York Rangers (depends how the kids progress and if Brad Richards performs); New Jersey (depends on Martin Brodeur, Adam Larsson and Mattias Tedenby); New York Islanders (if they get any goaltending they could be in the playoff mix).
Could be significantly worse than they’re ranked: Toronto (Corporately, Brian Burke has to get his team into the playoffs this year. The team is awfully young and inexperienced though); Montreal (if Carey Price goes down look out); Tampa Bay (similar to Montreal, they cannot afford a Dwayne Roloson injury).
Could miss the playoffs if things don’t gel right: Philadelphia (Chris Pronger’s injury prone, no one really knows what Jaromir Jagr will do and the kids are still kids).
Could make the playoffs with some luck: Carolina (great goaltending, okay defence and Eric Staal is an elite player).

Other fearless predictions for the upcoming season:

Conference Finals: Washington over Pittsburgh in the East; Chicago over Nashville in the West
Stanley Cup Final: Chicago over Washington
Chicago plays Vancouver in the playoffs for the fourth consecutive year.
Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin combine to play 120 games this year. Only one of them is available come playoff time.
With the Toronto Maple Leafs not making the playoffs, Brian Burke removes himself from the GM position and takes his place as President of the hockey club.
Phil Kessel is rumoured to be traded all year.
Jaromir Jagr is the most entertaining thing about the new season of HBO 24/7.
Lou Lamoriello retires at the end of the season. So does Martin Brodeur, Niklas Lidstrom, Teemu Selanne and Jaime Langenbrunner.
The Predators do not trade or re-sign Shea Weber, leaving him a ~~UFA~~RFA for 2012-13.
The NHL and NHLPA do not come to terms on a new Collective Bargaining Agreement.
The Philadelphia Phillies win the World Series over the New York Yankees. Derek Jeter, Jorge Posada and Mariano Rivera promptly retire.
Teemu Selanne, Jaromir Jagr and Jarome Iginla fail to score 30 goals.
James Neal, Taylor Hall, John Tavares and Tyler Seguin each score 30 goals.
A year after her divorce, a Christina Aguilera sex tape is leaked online.
The War Horse marks the beginning of the end of Steven Speilberg’s career as a director. It’s awful.
Will and Jada Pinkett-Smith do divorce after all.
Slash does not appear on stage with Guns N’ Roses at their Rock and Roll Hall of Fame induction ceremony.
The Toronto Blue Jays bid on Prince Fielder.
There is another recession.
Game of Thrones sets new viewing records for HBO.
Only Two Broke Girls, The New Girl and Prime Suspect earn a second TV season on a major US television network.
The Office without Steve Carrell is terrible.
Gabriel Landeskog is the highest scoring rookie. Nino Niederrater wins the Calder Trophy.
Alex Ovechkin wins the Art Ross and is the only player to crack 100 points.
Jonathan Toews wins the Hart.
Shea Weber wins the Norris.
Roberto Luongo wins the Vezina.
Tuukka Rask replaces Tim Thomas as Bruin starter at some point this season.
Shane Doan is traded from Phoenix at his request.
Jose Theodore is traded by Florida at the trade deadline.
It’s all but confirmed the Phoenix Coyotes will play in Quebec City starting in 2014.
The Blue Jackets’ Scott Arniel is the first coach fired. Ron Wilson is next, and whoever replaces Ron Wilson spurs the Leafs to a late-season playoff charge.
Coldplay’s new album is considered a disappointment.
Brendan Shanahan is forced (allegedly) to resign as NHL disciplinarian.
Teemu Selanne is hurt and can’t play in Winnipeg in December.
To the financial benefit of the NHL there is no NBA season.

Season Preview: Ranking the Eastern Conference Goalies

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Oct 042011

Any discussion of the New Jersey Devils chances this year is riddled with questions:

Is Peter DeBoer a good coach?
Is the team going bankrupt or not?
Do Adam Lambert and Adam Larsson look anything alike?
Is this Zach Parise’s last year with the team?
When will Travis Zajac be back?

Yet the biggest question of them all is “what can Devils fans expect from Martin Brodeur.”

Brodeur, arguably the best goalie of his generation, enters the season as a 39-year old. Like the rest of his team, Brodeur’s pre- (2.84 GAA, .895 SVPT) and post- (1.84, .919) all-star game numbers demonstrate Jacques Lemaire’s positive impact behind the bench. However, Brodeur’s .903 save percentage for the entire season was his worst since 1994-95.

To know what Martin Brodeur may bring to the New Jersey Devils’ crease this year, let’s take a look at how some other 39-year old goalies have faired since the lockout:

Season	Name	Team	Games Played	Wins	Goals Against Average	Save Percentage
2005-06	Sean Burke	Tampa Bay	35	14	2.8	0.895
2006-07	Curtis Joseph	Phoenix	55	18	3.19	0.893
2008-09	Dwayne Roloson	Edmonton	63	28	2.77	0.915

Burke and Joseph played on non-playoff teams and their numbers are an adequate reflection of their poor supporting cast and genuine decline due to age. The anomaly is Roloson, who was terrific for an otherwise weak Oiler team that also ended outside the playoff mix.

Brodeur turns 40 in May, and Devils fans hope the team is still playing then. To broaden the sample size a bit, let’s take a quick look at how goalies at 40 have done since the lockout.

Season	Name	Team	Games Played	Wins	Goals Against Average	Save Percentage
2005-06	Ed Belfour	Toronto	49	22	3.29	0.892
2006-07	Sean Burke	LA	23	6	3.11	0.901
2007-08	Curtis Joseph	Calgary	9	3	2.55	0.906
2009-10	Dwayne Roloson	NYI	50	23	3	0.907

Once again, none of these goalies played on a playoff team.

If we average all these numbers out, what do they look like?

Well, they look like Steve Mason:

Name	Games Played	Wins	Goals Against Average	Save Percentage
39-40 year old goalie avg.	41	16	3.01	0.902
Steve Mason 2011-12	54	24	3.03	0.901

Martin Brodeur may have a lot of records and some gas left in the tank, but given the evidence it seems more decline is in store for the Devils goalie.

Let’s take a look now at the Eastern Conference goalie rankings for 2011-12:

A+ Grade

Philadelphia
Last Year (D+)

Talk about rectifying a long-standing weakness. Ilya Bryzgalov is an elite goalie playing behind the best team of his career. If he gets hurt, Sergei Bobrovsky is a young, talented backup who showed last year he can play extremely well in stretches. Together, they look like the best goalie tandem in the league, although each of Boston, Buffalo and the Rangers could challenge that standing.

A Grade

Boston
Last Year (B+)

How about one more Wiserclap for the season Tim Thomas had – arguably the best season by a goalie in the history of the NHL. A bit of a fall-back-to-earth for Thomas should be expected, but the Bruins have a very capable Tuukka Rask to pick up the slack.

Buffalo
Last Year (A+)

Ryan Miller had a bit of a down season but is a top-5 goalie in the NHL, if not the best. Jhonas Enroth looks like the best backup goalie the Sabres have had in some time.

New York Rangers
Last Year (A+)

A slight downgrade given Martin Biron’s age and collarbone injury last season, but otherwise this is another elite goaltending tandem in a Conference neck-deep in strong goalie depth. Is this the year Henrik Lundqvist finally earns a Vezina Trophy?

A- Grade

Washington
Last Year (C)

Just like the Flyers, the Capitals addressed their goaltending issues for the first time since Olaf Kolzig left town. Tomas Vokun has long been described as a great goalie playing for lousy teams. Now we’ll see how he does when wins are expected. Michal Neuvirth and Braden Holtby are youngsters with strong potential.

Carolina
Last Year (B+)

If the NHL plays in the next Olympics, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Cam Ward between the pipes for Canada – he’s that good. Off-season acquisition Brian Boucher is a huge upgrade as the backup.

B+ Grade

Montreal
Last Year (C-)

Okay, so Carey Price is a legitimate NHL goalie capable of elite play. However, Montreal’s a Price injury away from absolute disaster (aka Peter Budaj) in the crease.

Pittsburgh
Last Year (B-)

A Vezina-esque season from Marc-Andre Fleury last season should have silenced most of the critics. Brent Johnson is a solid backup who can get red hot.

B Grade

Tampa Bay
Last Year (C+)

Dwayne Roloson will turn 42 in October. He was very good for the Lightning after being traded from the Islanders, but he seemed to tire by the Conference Final against Boston. A Roloson injury shoots the Lightning toward the bottom of this list, as Mathieu Garon is only adequate as the backup.

B- Grade

New Jersey
Last Year (A-)

This is probably Martin Brodeur’s final season. Good thing the Devils have planned ahead and stocked the farm system with potential replacements right? Actually, they haven’t. Instead, they’re going to trot out 38-year old Johan Hedberg in the event Brodeur gets hurt, and then hope some free agent chooses New Jersey in the off-season. Good luck with that, Lou Lamoriello.

Ottawa
Last Year (C-)

There’s a lot riding on Craig Anderson this year, as the Senators firmly believe he is the type of goalie you can rebuild around. Injuries remain a concern though. Alex Auld is an okay backup who barely played last year in Montreal.

C+ Grade

New York Islanders
Last Year (C)

Not satisfied with having Rick DiPietro, Al Montoya, Evgeni Nabokov, Kevin Poulin and MIkko Koskinen on the goalie depth chart, former goalie-turned-GM Garth Snow reportedly invited Darren Puppa, Dan Cloutier, Dominik Hasek, Johnny Bower, Ken Dryden, Steve Penney, Glenn Healy, Ron Tugnutt and Jean-Claude VanDamme to camp in an effort to start the season with an all-goalie starting lineup. Happily for Islander fans they all declined. Unhappily, the lot that remains is a rather average one, with Montoya showing the most promise last year.

Winnipeg
Last Year (C+)

Ondreji Pavelec has a 3.33 GAA and .883 save % after the all-star break. He’s young and talented, but the Jets need him to find consistency. Chris Mason is an experienced backup who was one of the worst goalies in the league statistically last season.

C Grade

Toronto
Last Year (B-)

Last year I was too optimistic about the tandem of Jean-Sebastien Giguere and Jonas Gustavsson. That’s why you find the Maple Leafs down here now, as James Reimer, despite a glacier glove hand, was terrific down the stretch. A half-season does not prove anything and it’s up to Reimer to show he’s a quality NHL starter.

Florida
Last Year (B+)

Lets be honest – Jose Theodore is just keeping the crease warm for super-prospect Jacob Markstrom. Until the rookie takes the reins though, the Panthers are going to lose a lot of games. Theodore is a shadow of his former self, and backup Scott Clemmensen may actually be the better goalie at this stage of their respective careers.

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