Out-of-Town Notebook: 2011/2012 Season Predictions and Prognostications

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Oct 062011
 

After more than a month of review, analysis, and rankings, it’s time to predict what will actually happen in the upcoming NHL season.

If you take all things into consideration, one thing becomes abundantly clear – parity. No team is very strong at each position (coach, goalie, defence, forward), and most teams are only a shade better or worse than another.

It looks like all the same teams that made the playoffs last year have a good chance of making it again this year. As we’ve discussed though, it’s rare that there’s so little change in the standings from year-to-year. Injuries therefore will be the biggest factor in determining who plays on in April and who doesn’t.

This time last year I predicted Boston as the Stanley Cup champion. Read on to find out this year’s predicted winner:

 Western Conference

  1. Vancouver 110-115 points
  2. Anaheim 105-110
  3. Nashville 100-105
  4. Chicago 100-105
  5. San Jose 90-95
  6. Detroit 90-95
  7. St. Louis 90-95
  8. Los Angeles 90-95
  9. Calgary 80-85
  10. Edmonton 75-80
  11. Colorado 70-75
  12. Dallas 70-75
  13. Phoenix 70-75
  14. Minnesota 65-70
  15. Columbus 55-60

Notes on the above:

  • Surprisingly, I have the Predators rated the best team in the Conference (based on very strong goaltending, defence and coaching scores). Nashville plays in a brutally tough division though. Vancouver plays in the weakest division in the league, and that should lead them to another 1st place showing.
  • I have Chicago, LA and Vancouver rated roughly the same. I don’t have a non-playoff team rated anywhere near the top-8 teams in the West.
  • Could be significantly better than they’re ranked: San Jose (if Niemi plays a full season like his half-season last year); Colorado (if the kids are healthy and Varlamov is a legit goalie); St. Louis (if Halak is healthy and the youth take the next step).
  • Could be significantly worse than they’re ranked: Anaheim (if any of their core gets hurt they have very little depth); Detroit (if Jimmy Howard is only adequate and age catches up to the team); Phoenix (if their goaltending is as weak as expected).
  • Could miss the playoffs: Their division is so tough, a slow start or injury troubles could kill St. Louis, Detroit, Chicago or Nashville’s playoff chances.
  • Could make the playoffs with some luck: Calgary (if Mikka Kiprusof has some magic left, Iginla stays healthy and they incredibly find some secondary scoring).

 Eastern Conference

  1. Washington 110-115
  2. Boston 105-110
  3. Pittsburgh 105-110
  4. Philadelphia 100-105
  5. Buffalo 100-105
  6. Montreal 90-95
  7. NY Rangers 90-95
  8. Tampa Bay 85-90
  9. New Jersey 80-85
  10. Toronto 80-85
  11. Carolina 75-80
  12. NY Islanders 70-75
  13. Winnipeg 70-75
  14. Ottawa 60-65
  15. Florida 55-60

Notes on the above:

  • Pittsburgh is the highest rated team in the Conference, but its close between them, Boston and Washington. Given the weakness of Washington’s division, the Capitals are likely to take first place.
  • I think the travel schedule of teams in the Southeast Division will have a negative impact on how those teams compete in the standings.  
  • Could be significantly better than they’re ranked: New York Rangers (depends how the kids progress and if Brad Richards performs); New Jersey (depends on Martin Brodeur, Adam Larsson and Mattias Tedenby); New York Islanders (if they get any goaltending they could be in the playoff mix).
  • Could be significantly worse than they’re ranked: Toronto (Corporately, Brian Burke has to get his team into the playoffs this year. The team is awfully young and inexperienced though); Montreal (if Carey Price goes down look out); Tampa Bay (similar to Montreal, they cannot afford a Dwayne Roloson injury).
  • Could miss the playoffs if things don’t gel right: Philadelphia (Chris Pronger’s injury prone, no one really knows what Jaromir Jagr will do and the kids are still kids).
  • Could make the playoffs with some luck: Carolina (great goaltending, okay defence and Eric Staal is an elite player).

Other fearless predictions for the upcoming season:

  • Conference Finals: Washington over Pittsburgh in the East; Chicago over Nashville in the West
  • Stanley Cup Final: Chicago over Washington
  • Chicago plays Vancouver in the playoffs for the fourth consecutive year.
  • Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin combine to play 120 games this year. Only one of them is available come playoff time.
  • With the Toronto Maple Leafs not making the playoffs, Brian Burke removes himself from the GM position and takes his place as President of the hockey club.
  • Phil Kessel is rumoured to be traded all year.
  • Jaromir Jagr is the most entertaining thing about the new season of HBO 24/7.
  • Lou Lamoriello retires at the end of the season. So does Martin Brodeur, Niklas Lidstrom, Teemu Selanne and Jaime Langenbrunner.
  • The Predators do not trade or re-sign Shea Weber, leaving him a UFARFA for 2012-13.
  • The NHL and NHLPA do not come to terms on a new Collective Bargaining Agreement.
  • The Philadelphia Phillies win the World Series over the New York Yankees. Derek Jeter, Jorge Posada and Mariano Rivera promptly retire.
  • Teemu Selanne, Jaromir Jagr and Jarome Iginla fail to score 30 goals.
  • James Neal, Taylor Hall, John Tavares and Tyler Seguin each score 30 goals.
  • A year after her divorce, a Christina Aguilera sex tape is leaked online.
  • The War Horse marks the beginning of the end of Steven Speilberg’s career as a director. It’s awful.
  • Will and Jada Pinkett-Smith do divorce after all.
  • Slash does not appear on stage with Guns N’ Roses at their Rock and Roll Hall of Fame induction ceremony.
  • The Toronto Blue Jays bid on Prince Fielder.
  • There is another recession.
  • Game of Thrones sets new viewing records for HBO.
  • Only Two Broke Girls, The New Girl and Prime Suspect earn a second TV season on a major US television network.
  • The Office without Steve Carrell is terrible.
  • Gabriel Landeskog is the highest scoring rookie. Nino Niederrater wins the Calder Trophy.
  • Alex Ovechkin wins the Art Ross and is the only player to crack 100 points.
  • Jonathan Toews wins the Hart.
  • Shea Weber wins the Norris.
  • Roberto Luongo wins the Vezina.
  • Tuukka Rask replaces Tim Thomas as Bruin starter at some point this season.
  • Shane Doan is traded from Phoenix at his request.
  • Jose Theodore is traded by Florida at the trade deadline.
  • It’s all but confirmed the Phoenix Coyotes will play in Quebec City starting in 2014.
  • The Blue Jackets’ Scott Arniel is the first coach fired. Ron Wilson is next, and whoever replaces Ron Wilson spurs the Leafs to a late-season playoff charge.
  • Coldplay’s new album is considered a disappointment.
  • Brendan Shanahan is forced (allegedly) to resign as NHL disciplinarian.
  • Teemu Selanne is hurt and can’t play in Winnipeg in December.
  • To the financial benefit of the NHL there is no NBA season.

Season Preview: Ranking the Western Conference Goalies

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Oct 052011
 

Yesterday it was the Eastern Conference goalies. Today, the Western Conference as we wrap up our positional previews.

A+ Grade

Nashville
Last Year (B-)

A stellar playoff performance proved Pekka Rinne is more than just a product of an elite defensive team. He’s the Conference’s best goaltender right now. If injured, Anders Lindback is a more-than-capable replacement.

A- Grade

Anaheim
Last Year (B)

Vertigo derailed what was shaping up to be a Vezina-worthy season for Jonas Hiller. Symptom-free, he’s an elite goaltender. Dan Ellis is an okay backup in the short-term, but any injury to Hiller and the Ducks are in trouble.

B+ Grade

Vancouver
Last Year (B+)

Despite two very inconsistent post-seasons, Roberto Luongo has been a great regular season goaltender. In fact, it could be argued Luongo has something to prove this year, which may mean trouble for opposing shooters. Cory Schneider is a strong backup and can fill in admirably for long stretches. He may be required to do so if Luongo falters again.

Calgary
Last Year (B)

Miika Kiprusoff is starting on the downside of his career, but he’s still capable of Vezina-worthy numbers. The team has high hopes for Henrik Karlsson, who might just be the most talented backup Kiprusoff’s ever had behind him on the depth chart. Then again, we are talking about a list that includes Curtis McElhinney, Vesa Toskala, an-end-of-his-career Curtis Joseph, Jamie McLennan, Phillppe Sauve, Brian Boucher, Roman Turek, Dany Sabourin, Goofy, Greg Goldberg, Lisa Simpson, Lanny McDonald’s moustache, Snidley Whiplash’s moustache and Paul Brandt.   

B Grade

St. Louis
Last Year (B+)

It was a mixed debut for Jaroslav Halak in St. Louis, as injuries and inconsistency dogged his first season with the Blues. There were enough good moments though to confirm he is no Habs one-season wonder (aka Steve Penney). Ben Bishop and Brian Elliott competed for the backup role in camp, with Elliott winning the role. Both are significant downgrades from Halak.

Los Angeles
Last Year (C+)

There is an embarrassment of riches at this position in Los Angeles, with Jonathan Quick playing extremely well last year, and Jonathan Bernier remaining one of the elite goalie prospects in the league. The Kings will move up this list as these two continue to develop.

B- Grade

Chicago Last Year (B-)

Marty Turco was a Christina Hendricks-sized bust last year, but the emergence of Corey Crawford effectively saved the Blackhawks season. Crawford was very good against the Canucks in the first round last year, and goes into this season as the defacto starter. The backup role is up for grabs, with former badboy Ray Emery competing with prospect Alexander Salak. Emery looked good with the Ducks down the stretch, while Salak toiled in Europe after a good North American showing in 2009-10. Neither were all that special during training camp. (Ed. note: The Blackhawks signed Ray Emery a couple of days ago, and sent Alexander Salak to Rockford in the AHL. – J.J.)

Dallas
Last Year (C-)

Kari Lehtonen brushed aside his injury past and was the Stars’ MVP, almost carrying the team into the playoffs. He’ll be asked to do even more on a weaker Dallas team this year. Andrew Raycroft is serviceable as the backup.

C+ Grade

Colorado
Last Year (C+)

Semyon Varlamov was a walking band-aid for the Capitals last year, and has yet to play 30 NHL games in a season. There’s no question he’s talented, but durability is a legitimate concern. The Capitals have been a good team as well, so it will be interesting to see what his numbers look like playing for a young Avalanche team. Jean-Sebastien Giguere is a swell guy who’s clearly reaching the end of his career performance-wise. His last two years in Toronto were pedestrian.

San Jose
Last Year (C)

After a horrible start to the season, Antti Niemi was sensational from January until the end of the season. He is unorthodox, and his playoff numbers were disappointing, but when hot he’s one of the better goalies in the league.  Antero Nittymaki is out for 12 weeks meaning Thomas Griess gets a chance to be the backup. Griess has #1 goalie potential.

C Grade

Detroit
Last Year (B)

Brilliant in his rookie season, Jimmy Howard was hit by the sophomore slump for much of last year. He picked up his game in the post-season though, and seems destined to be a Chris Osgood-level NHL starter. Ty Conklin is the journeyman backup.

Edmonton
Last Year (D+)

Devan Dubnyk was Ken Wregget-esque at times last year, giving an overmatched Oilers team a chance to win. His best days are ahead – the question remains how good of a goaltender he can be. Having completed his jail time, Nikolai Khabibulin enters the year looking to redeem his reputation.

Minnesota
Last Year (C)

Nicklas Backstrom had a bounce-back year between the pipes for a very pedestrian Wild team. He’s a second-tier NHL starter. Josh Harding missed all of last season due to injury, got hurt in training camp and at 27 sees his career at a crossroads. 

C- Grade

Phoenix
Last Year (A)

Coyotes fans are about to learn how just how hard it is to win in the NHL without elite goaltending. Mike Smith and Jason LaBarbera are solid backup goalies at best.

Columbus
Last Year (C+)

Chin up Blue Jackets fans – whereas the Steve Mason era has been a nightmare, the Mark Derkanich era, whenever it starts, has some promise. In the meantime, Curtis Sanford (not this Sanford, the other one) is also in the mix.

Season Preview: Ranking the Western Conference Forwards (and Ashton Kutcher’s Two and a Half Men Debut)

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Sep 262011
 

What do Michael Ryder and Ashton Kutcher have in common?

Both have previously enjoyed success in supporting roles, and now both are being asked to replace bigger stars that left town after difficult contract negotiations.

It’s doubtful either will make anyone forget who they’re replacing anytime soon.

Last Monday, more than 27 million viewers tuned in to see how Two and a Half Men would replace Charlie Sheen with Ashton Kutcher.

For those that missed it but wondered how it went, allow me to summarize: blandly juvenile.

Granted, juvenile jokes and innuendo are a big reason why Two and a Half Men is the most popular sitcom on television.

But there’s no question the show’s charm had a lot to do with Charlie Sheen playing off his real-life reputation.

Ashton Kutcher brought a different energy to the season premiere. He was Kelso 2.0 – written to be smarter but just as much the same boy-man character who stole laughs and struggled to keep a straight face on That 70’s Show.

Yep, like Sheen, Kutcher is essentially playing himself. That, however, doesn’t make him interesting. Without the sub-text Sheen’s real-life exploits brought to the sitcom, Kutcher isn’t a strong enough actor to create an interesting character on his own. And he’s struggled throughout his career when given opportunities to play a lead role.

Meanwhile, Michael Ryder is essentially the only off-season acquisition the Dallas Stars made to replace Brad Richards. He’s also struggled when asked to play a lead role (see Montreal career), and enjoyed great, Stanley Cup success as a top-nine forward in Boston.

How are he and the rest of the Stars forwards shaping up for the 2011-12 season?

Let’s get to ranking the Western Conference forward groups:

A- Grade

Anaheim
Last Year (B+)

For the second year in a row we have a surprise on top of the list. This result is almost entirely due to three things: Corey Perry’s emergence as the Hart Trophy winner; Bobby Ryan’s development into a near-elite player; and Teemu Selanne’s incredible season as a 287-year old (matched only historically by the 2000 year old man ). The first line of Ryan-Ryan Getzlaf-Perry is the best in the league. Like last year though there are real depth issues beyond the top two lines, with Andrew Cogliano skating like Todd Marchant, but in no way capable of replacing the latter’s defensive abilities. If Selanne plays like his age, and none of the youth (Kyle Palmieri in particular) step up into supporting roles, they move down this list quickly.

B+ Grade

San Jose
Last Year (A-)

Will battle with Los Angeles all year for the title of strongest team down the middle. Martin Havlat also represents a speed upgrade over Dany Heatley, although he’s injury prone and beyond him the right side is fairly punchless.  In fact, like Anaheim this is a team with scoring issues in the bottom six, particularly on the wings. It’s a gritty bunch though, and one that looks tailored for the post-season.

Vancouver
Last Year (A-)

Yet another team at the top of this list with an elite core of scoring talent but some questionable depth. Recently, a James Mirtle piece argued how the Toronto Maple Leafs needed more balanced scoring, as their top four forwards provided 53% of forward goals last season. For the Canucks, the Sedins, Ryan Kesler and Alex Burrows provided 58.7% of Vancouver’s forward goals last year. That’s a lot of pressure on a few players. With Kesler and Mason Raymond’s injuries clouding their potential impact this season, Marco Sturm and Mikael Samuelsson will have to pick up some of the offensive slack. The third line (Chris Higgins, Manny Malholtra, Jannik Hansen) has the makings of one of the better shutdown lines in the league.

Detroit
Last Year (B+)

Strong down the middle with Pavel Datsyuk (maybe the best player in the game), Henrik Zetterberg, Valterri Filppula and Darren Helm. They could really use some help on the wings though, as Dan Cleary and Johan Franzen (despite his playoff scoring reputation) are more appropriate options for a strong second line. The wildcard is Jiri Hudler, who was a George-Lucas-messing-with-the-original-Star-Wars-trilogy-again scale disappointment last season. This is a quick, intelligent group of forwards.

Los Angeles
Last Year (A-)

As discussed above, Anze Kopitar, Mike Richards and Jarrett Stoll give the Kings arguably the strongest set of centremen in the league. The acquisition of Simon Gagne was a wonderful under-the-radar move. His play improved exponentially as the season went on last year in Tampa Bay and he’s shown previous chemistry playing alongside Richards. Kyle Clifford and Brad Richardson are youngsters providing grit on the third line, while Ethan Moreau will try to extend his career as a veteran 4th line presence. Really, if Dustin Penner can demonstrate any kind of scoring consistency, this could be the Conference’s best group of forwards.

B Grade

St. Louis
Last Year (C+)

On paper this a solid, still improving two-way group that might have greater depth than some of the teams ranked higher. While they lack an elite point producer, they could legitimately see seven 20-goal scorers this year (Patrik Berglund, David Backes, Andy McDonald, T.J. Oshie, David Perron, Alex Steen and Chris Stewart). Jason Arnott and Jamie Langenbrunner bring Stanley Cup experience.

Chicago
Last Year (A+)

Make no mistake – the core of the Blackhawks forward brigade (Jonathan Toews, Patrick Sharp, David Bolland, Patrick Kane and Marian Hossa) is good enough to sit atop this ranking. It’s the complimentary players that are still very much a work in progress. Andrew Brunette is a good addition to help the powerplay, but at this point zambonis move faster. Meanwhile, none of Michael Frolik, Viktor Stalberg or Rostislav Olesz has shown any sort of consistency in their young careers. If one of them finds “it” offensively, the ‘Hawks move up this list.

Columbus
Last Year (C-)

Things are looking up in Ohio as Rick Nash finally has some talent to partner with. Jeff Carter and Vaclav Prospal bring much needed scoring depth to the Blue Jacket attack and Ryan Johansen is an elite prospect (although he may be brought along slowly).  The third and fourth lines are inexperienced but play hard. R.J. Umberger and Antoine Vermette are decent second-line talents.

B- Grade

Edmonton
Last Year (C+)

The future is very bright in Edmonton, but it’s not here quite yet. Taylor Hall looks like a future Maurice Richard candidate and Jordan Eberle looks like a future 30-goal scorer. Alex Hemsky is in his contract year, and seems poised for a career year. Then again, that’s said every year, and he always finds a way to get hurt. Adding Ryan Smyth and Eric Belanger addressed two weaknesses (leadership and face-off prowess), but it’s Ben Eager who represents the most important off-season move. Together with Darcy Hordichuk, the Oilers have size that can contribute at the NHL level for the first time in at least two seasons. This group could surprise.

C+ Grade

Minnesota
Last Year (C)

It’s a career crossroads for Dany Heatley. Granted, he played hurt last March and throughout the Sharks playoff run, but a lack of effort has been associated with the former 50-goal scorer for a few seasons now. (You know who else you could say that about? Everyone involved in HBO’s Entourage.) Meanwhile, a healthy Pierre-Marc Bouchard and greater opportunity for Devin Setoguchi give the Wild their best top-six forwards in franchise history.

C Grade

Colorado
Last Year (B+)

Last year’s rankings warned of a potential sophomore slump for this group, and boy did they deliver in that regard. There’s still some real promise here though. Gabriel Landeskog was a terrific draft pick, adding some Brendan Morrow-esque qualities to a young, finesse-based lineup. The question is health as Milan Hejduk is older than some countries; Peter Mueller missed much of last season; and David Jones is a band-aid player. If this group can stay healthy they climb these rankings. 

Dallas
Last Year (C+)

What was a solid top-six is now weaker thanks to Richard’s departure. Jamie Benn will likely shift into the centre ice position, and Ryder will be given every chance to cement himself as a go-to goal scorer on the club. He’s streaky though, which leaves Loui Eriksson the only natural goal-scorer on the roster. Vernon Fiddler and Adam Burish are decent third-line grinders, but there’s very little offense in the bottom-six.

Calgary
Last Year (C+)

The Flames may slip another grade before the start of the season if Jarome Iginla continues to have back troubles. Those back troubles are really no surprise though – he’s been carrying this team for a long time. There’s some nice grit here, and they’ll remain a tough team to play against. But scoring is going to be a struggle. That’s why there’s a lot of pressure on Mikael Backlund to evolve into an impact offensive player this year.

Nashville
Last Year (C-)

With all due respect to Martin Erat, there really isn’t a legitimate first line player on the Predators roster. That being said, this is a team filled with forwards who do the “little things” right, and they may just be the best defensive group collectively in the NHL. In many ways Predators forwards are similar to Calgary as a group, although younger and without an Iginla to build around. Keeping the comparison in mind, Colin Wilson is Nashville’s Mikael Backlund. 

C- Grade

Phoenix
Last Year (C)

You know you’re in trouble when Ray Whitney is the most dangerous forward on the roster. The Coyotes may have the worst group of centres in the NHL, and that’s counting Kyle Turris, who is (inexplicably) holding out. I imagine Turris asking for more money has gone about as well as this. How much longer does Shane Doan really have to play in the desert?

Season Preview: Ranking the Western Conference Bluelines

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Sep 152011
 

The other day, we looked at the Eastern Conference bluelines. Today, let’s look at the Western Conference defence rankings.

A Grade

Chicago
Last Year (A+)

A slip in the ratings heading into 2011-12, as neither Duncan Keith nor Brent Seabrook were quite as good last year as they were the season before. Meanwhile, Nick Hjalmarsson also disappointed. However, Nick Leddy looks like a future top-4 stalwart, and there’s some veteran depth now with the signings of Steve Montador, Sean O’Donnell and Sami Lepisto.

Los Angeles
Last Year (A-)

This is assuming Drew Doughty signs. Otherwise they drop a grade. Doughty struggled with some injuries last year, but he remains a perennial Norris Trophy candidate. Jack Johnson’s plus/minus was awful (-21), but he played well in Doughty’s absence and looks like a legitimate first pairing guy. The rest of the group is an average mix of youth and experience, with Matt Green being the best defensive guy on the team.

Nashville
Last Year (B+)

It should come as no surprise that the three teams with two top-level defencemen on the roster are all ranked at the top of this list. Shea Weber and Ryan Suter round out the trifecta of excellence, and quite easily could be the best twosome of the lot. Jonathon Blum and Ryan Ellis offer some young offensive promise, with Blum in particular looking ready to play 18 minutes a night. Kevin Klein (not this Kevin Kline) and Francis Bouillon are serviceable.

B+ Grade

Phoenix
Last Year (B-)

The Coyote blueline is a veteran heavy group that represents the only real strength the team has heading into the season. Keith Yandle was an offensive force last year, and it will be interesting to see if he can repeat his Norris-worthy campaign. Oliver Ekman-Larsson is the future and will be given more minutes this season.

B Grade

San Jose
Last Year (B+)

Listening to some people, you’d think Brent Burns was the second coming of Scott Niedermayer. He isn’t. Instead, he’s a solid, 40+-point defenceman who can take pressure off Dan Boyle and give the team one of the league’s better top-fours (Boyle/Murray, Burns/Vlasic). Speaking of which, put me down in favour of Picklesnake.

Detroit
Last Year (A-)

Sorry, but Ian White isn’t Brian Rafalski, and the Red Wing defence is weaker due to the latter’s retirement. Niklas Kronwall played the best hockey of his career last year, but the franchise could really use one of Jonathan Ericsson and Jakub Kindl to emerge. Is Nick Lidstrom the greatest defenseman of all time? Discuss.

B- Grade

Anaheim
Last Year (C)

A solid mix of veterans and youth, although the bottom pairing looks quite weak. Taking nothing away from Nick Lidstrom’s historic year as a 40-year old, veteran Lubomir Visnovsky also found himself hooked up to the rejuvenation machine last season. At 35, Visnovsky was deserving of Norris consideration. Toni Lydman is the stabilizing presence, as the Ducks play a lot better with him in the lineup. No one likes to predict a sophomore slump, but it wouldn’t surprise if Cam Fowler regressed a bit in year two.

St. Louis
Last Year (B)

To be honest, who knows exactly what to expect from the Blues defence this year. It’s awfully young and full of promise, kind of like Lindsay Lohan once was (side note: how creepy is it that someone sat down and made that video?). Anyways, we all know how LiLo turned out. That being said, Alex Pietrangelo seems ready to become a top-10 NHL defenceman, and Roman Polak is one of the better defensive players in the league. If Kevin Shattenkirk and Nikita Nikitin can find consistency, this can become an elite group.

Vancouver
Last Year (B+)

They may have only lost Christian Ehroff, but Vancouver’s defence doesn’t seem as deep heading into this season. For one, it’s hard to believe Kevin Bieksa will repeat his career-best performance last year. Similarly, Keith Ballard is a shadow of the player he once was, and would probably benefit from playing on a different team, under a new coach. The Canucks are excited about Chris Tanev and the coach loves Aaron Rome, but neither are ready or capable of playing big minutes. No, the only way Vancouver’s defence moves up these rankings this year is if Alex Edler takes the next step in his development.

C+ Grade

Calgary
Last Year (B)

Let’s just all admit that Jay Bouwmeester is the new Brett Hedican – a beautiful skating defenceman who is average in all other aspects of the game. Anton Babchuk and Chris Butler have puck-moving talent, and add some speed to what was a statuesque Flames blueline. Speaking of statues, Scott Hannan replaces Robyn Regehr as the “Calgary Flame most likely to be passed by an opponent on the way to a scoring chance.”

C Grade

Minnesota
Last Year (C)

I’d be surprised if Wild employees, let alone fans or hockey followers, could name the starting six defenceman who will suit up for the team opening night. With Minnesota moving towards a more offensive approach, Marek Zidlicky could see a jump in production. The philosophical change should also cement roster spots for Marco Scandella and Jared Spurgeon – two decent skating players with puck-moving potential. Nick Schultz is a warrior and underrated.

Dallas
Last Year (D)

Make no mistake, if two of Sheldon Souray, Brad Lukowich, Adam Pardy or Mark Fistric play together at any point in the NHL this year, that pairing will be the worst in the entire league. That the franchise decided to give Sheldon Souray a shot should tell you this will be a rebuilding year in Dallas. Souray wasn’t very good in the AHL last year, and his last regular NHL action was roughly two years ago. The top-two pairings are okay, with Alex Goligoski the most creative, Stephane Robidas and Trevor Daley the most reliable, and Nick Grossman the best defender.

Columbus
Last Year (C+)

They added James Wisniewski, you say. The rest of the top-six is arguably league-worst, I say.

Colorado
Last Year (B-)

They could move back up the standings based on two developments: One, Erik Johnson figures it out and takes the next step (and the scuttlebutt is he’s been a horse preparing in the off-season). Two, Jan Hejda proves it wasn’t a Blue Jacket mirage and he really is one of the better defensive defencemen in the league. We’ll see. Sadly, the rest of the Colorado defence is young and questionable.

C- Grade

Edmonton
Last Year (C-)

There’s nothing wrong with loading up on talented offensive players through the draft. At some point though, the Oilers are going to have to figure out that preventing goals is another way to win games. Ryan Whitney was putting in a team MVP-esque performance last year before he got hurt, and talk is he’s hurt himself again in the off-season. Without Whitney, the Oiler blueline is the worst in the NHL. Theo Peckham is a beast though.

Season Preview: The Impact of Coaching Changes Part 2 and Ranking the Western Conference Coaches

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Sep 072011
 

As discussed in yesterday’s post, changing a coach at mid-season, rather than in the off-season, seems to have a greater positive impact on team performance.

Examining all the coaching moves since the start of the 2005-06 season reveals some other interesting tidbits:

  1. Only four coaches hired at mid-season led their teams to a worse performance than the coach they replaced:
    • 2009-10 Philadelphia: Peter Laviolette (.535) replaced John Stevens (.540). One could argue these are almost equal results.
    • 2008-09 Tampa Bay: Rick Tocchet (.397 winning percentage) replaced Barry Melrose (.438). Funny how Melrose was ridiculed for his performance returning to the bench, while Rick Tocchet demonstrated himself to be just as incompetent.
    • 2008-09 Montreal: Bob Gainey (.500) replaced Guy Carbonneau (.583)
    • 2005-06 Los Angeles: John Torchetti (.417) replaced Andy Murray (.564)

  2. The best improvement by a coach hired in the off-season:
    • 2009-10 Phoenix: Dave Tippett (+28 points after replacing Wayne Gretzky)
    • 2009-10 Colorado: Joe Sacco (+27 points after replacing Tony Granato)
    • 2010-11 Tampa Bay: Guy Boucher (+23 points after replacing Rick Tocchet)
    • 2007-08 Boston: Claude Julien (+18 points after replacing Dave Lewis). You’re not likely to see any of the four names replaced on this list named as NHL head coaches ever again.

  3. The worst performance by teams after hiring a coach in the off-season:
    • 2008-09 Colorado: Tony Granato (-27 points after replacing Joel Quennville)
    • 2010-11 New Jersey: John Maclean + Jacques Lemaire (-24 points after replacing Jacques Lemaire)
    • 2009-10 Edmonton: Pat Quinn (-23 points after replacing Craig MacTavish)
    • 2006-07 Los Angeles: Marc Crawford (-21 points after replacing Andy Murray + John Torchetti)

One final note – for all the talk that Pat Quinn’s coaching time had passed after that brutal 62-point performance for the Oilers, it’s worth noting Tom Renney led an stronger Edmonton team to exactly the same number of points the following season.

Here now are the coaching rankings for the Western Conference:

 A Grade

Mike Babcock – Detroit
Last Year (A)

The best coach in the game? Probably. The demise of the Red Wings has been increasingly predicted over the last few years, and yet it never seems to actually happen. Credit the coach, who knows exactly the right buttons to push to motivate each player.

Barry Trotz – Nashville
Last Year (B+)

Nashville fell a sniper short of upsetting Vancouver in the second round. That’s not Trotz’s fault, who clearly outcoached Alain Vigneault during the series. He’s among the best in the league.

B+ Grade

Joel Quenneville – Chicago
Last Year (B+)

Getting the Blackhawks – a team gutted by so many moves in the offseason that the players probably needed name tags in training camp – into the playoffs last year was an underrated coaching accomplishment.

Alain Vigneault – Vancouver
Last Year (B-)

You coach a team into the Cup Final you get to move up these rankings. Yet, he still has an inexplicable man-crush on Aaron Rome; has turned once-promising Keith Ballard into an ECHL’er; and is at least partially to blame for the unsportsmanlike attitude that permeates Canuck culture. Last year was likely the pinnacle of Vigneault’s coaching career.

B Grade

Randy Carlyle – Anaheim
Last Year (B)

Carlyle headed into last season at a crossroads, with whispers of his having lost the room heard around the league. Instead, the coach and team rallied to a playoff spot. He did a great job not only integrating Cam Fowler into the lineup, but protecting him and his confidence.

Dave Tippet – Phoenix
Last Year (B)

Performed another coaching miracle getting the Coyotes into the playoffs last year, but faces his greatest challenge trying to do that without Ilya Bryzgalov in 2011-12.

B- Grade

Tom Renney – Edmonton
Last Year (B-)

The Oilers featured stronger systems play and a better dressing room atmosphere last year, but failed to improve in the standings. A terrific coaching “teacher,” at some point Edmonton brass will have to ask themselves if Renney has the chops to take a team far into the playoffs. That’s a question that’s still a few seasons off though.

C+ Grade

Terry Murray – Los Angeles (FIRED WATCH)
Last Year (C+)

Let’s make it two years in a row for Murray to find his name on the “Fired Watch.” Expectations haven’t been this high for the Kings since Gretzky was in town. An adequate bench boss, he hasn’t coached a team out of the first round since the Flyers made the Stanley Cup in 1997.

Todd McLellan – San Jose
Last Year (C)

Won a classic series against the Detroit Red Wings (and coach Mike Babcock) and got his team to the Conference Final for the second year in a row. And yet, he still hasn’t really helped the team shed its underachieving label.

C Grade

Davis Payne – St. Louis (FIRED WATCH)
Last Year (C)

With the Blues expected to rise in the standings this year the heat is on Payne, who is also in the final year of his contract. Injuries crippled the team last year, but St. Louis was also inconsistent and prone to weak first period efforts.

Brent Sutter – Calgary (FIRED WATCH)
Last Year (C)

Still looking for the same success in the NHL that he had coaching junior hockey. He seemed a bit more flexible handling his roster once brother Darryl was out of the mix. Still, with a veteran-laden squad like the Flames, it’s playoffs or bust.

Joe Sacco – Colorado
Last Year (C+)

Sacco, heralded as a great communicator after his first year as coach, had a tough second season. The team looked unprepared at times and Sacco’s seemingly random benching of players was odd (Chris Stewart was a healthy scratch before being dealt).

Scott Arniel – Columbus (FIRED WATCH)
Last Year (C)

You know what the definition of a square-peg and round-hole problem is? Meshing Arniel’s puck possession gameplan with the Blue Jackets roster last year. It didn’t work. The personnel is stronger this year in Columbus, so now it’s up to Arniel to deliver some results.

Glen Gulutzan – Dallas
Last Year (N/A)

Another rookie head coach, this time taking over from “The Hair” (aka Marc Crawford). Despite team assurances, it does look like Gulutzan’s price-tag (ie. cheap) played a part in his being hired over other coaching options (Craig MacTavish, Ken Hitchcock, etc). Gulutzan has had an impressive minor league coaching career, particularly in the ECHL. You know who else had a pretty impressive ECHL coaching career? John Brophy, who’s actually in the ECHL Hall of Fame. Just sayin’…

Mike Yeo – Minnesota
Last Year (N/A)

Yeo takes over from Todd Richards, promising to bring offensive hockey to the Wild. The former Penguins powerplay coach is young (39) and, well, eager, as his visit to Finland to meet with Mikko Koivu can attest. He only has one season of head coaching experience though, and the ditches along the NHL highway are full of wannabe assistants who couldn’t make it as head coaches.

Canucks Review and Preview: April 4 to April 10, 2011

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Apr 032011
 

[Every Sunday, Caylie King looks at the Canucks week that was and the Canucks week ahead. You can follow Caylie on Twitter (@cayking).]

Canucks Record

79 GP, 52-18-9, 113 points (1st in Northwest Division, 1st in Western Conference, 1st in NHL)

Who’s Hot

Remember earlier this season when people were saying that Alex Burrows was having an off season? Well, he now has 25 goals, 47 points and a plus-25 rating in 69 games. Burr scored the only goal against Edmonton and has 4 goals in his last 5 games.

Who’s Not

Raffi Torres has 1 assist in his last 8 games. But although he has not been putting up huge numbers, he’s at least contributed in other ways. Raffi can turn a mediocre shift around with a big hit or an aggressive forecheck. It looks like this will be Raffi’s first full season in 3 years. He may even be a plus-player for the first time in 4 years. Especially in Manny’s absence, the Canucks will be counting on Raffi’s leadership and physical play to be a big part of their playoff run.

Who’s Next

Tuesday, April 5, 2011 vs. Edmonton Oilers (6:00 PM start, away)

Having the worst record in the NHL didn’t stop the Edmonton Oilers from ending the Canucks’ 5-game winning streak on Saturday night, the first of a home-and-away, back-to-back between the two clubs. Before that, the Oilers had lost their last 11 games.

This is the last game of the season between the two teams. The Canucks lead the season series 4-1.

Jordan Eberle had a goal and an assist in the meeting on Saturday. In his rookie year, Eberle has 18 goals and 41 points – only 1 point behind team leaders, Taylor Hall, Sam Gagner and Ales Hemsky who all have 42 points.

Thursday, April 7, 2011 vs. Minnesota Wild (7:00 PM start, home)

The Wild’s season is pretty much over. They’re out of the playoff race, sitting in 11th place in the Western Conference, 10 points back of a playoff spot and only 4 games to go. Like the Oilers, the Wild players might not be playing for playoff position but they are playing for jobs next year. No doubt, they’ll play hard, play loose and would love to beat the number 1 team in the NHL.

This is the last game of the season series that Vancouver leads 3-2; the Canucks won the last meeting 4-2 in Minnesota where Ryan Kesler recorded his second game-winning goal against the Wild.

Andrew Brunette has 3 goals and 1 assist in 5 games played against the Canucks. He has 43 points (17G-26A) this season, which is good for fourth place in team scoring.

Saturday, April 9, 2011 vs. Calgary Flames (7:00 PM start, away)

As of right now, the Flames hopes of making it to the postseason are still alive. It’s a long shot and they’ll need a lot of help from the teams around them in the standings, but with 3 games left and being 3 points out of the 8th and last playoff spot in the Western Conference, it’ll be a small miracle if they manage to make it through. Calgary hasn’t really been helping their own cause with only 3 wins in their last 10 games.

The Canucks lead the season series, having won 4 of their previous 5 meetings. Special teams have been key; the Canucks have scored 7 powerplay goals against the Flames this season and have also killed off 16 of 17 penalties.

Surprisingly, 1000-point man Jarome Iginla has not scored a goal against the Canucks but he does have 4 assists. Even though the Flames haven’t had the best season, Iggy is still having an outstanding campaign with 39 goals and 80 points.

Is this the year?

The Canucks officially wrapped up the President’s Trophy this week, ensuring home ice advantage throughout the entire playoffs. What is more impressive is that when the Canucks got a little “p” beside their name in the standings, no other team in the West had clinched a playoff spot yet.

Not only are the Canucks the number 1 team in the league, but many of their personnel have a legitimate opportunity to win major hardware. Daniel Sedin looks likely to win the Art Ross and has a good chance to win the Hart as well. In my opinion, Ryan Kesler is the front-runner for the Selke. And coach Alain Vigneault should get some consideration for the Jack Adams.

While winning the first President’s Trophy in franchise history is huge accomplishment, we all know that unless Lord Stanley makes an appearance come June the season will be looked at as a failure. Canucks Nation truly believes that this is the best, most complete team we’ve ever seen. Now enough with the talk, let the playoffs begin!

Canucks Review and Preview: February 14 to February 20, 2011

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Feb 132011
 

[Every Sunday, Caylie King looks at the Canucks week that was and the Canucks week ahead. You can follow Caylie on Twitter (@cayking).]

Canucks Record

56 GP, 36-11-9, 81 points (1st in Northwest Division, 1st in Western Conference)

Who’s Hot

It was about this time last year that Mikael Samuelsson went on a hot streak, a way of showing Team Sweden what they were missing out on. To say that Sammy is en fuego as of late would be an understatement. He has 6 goals and 14 points in his last 8 games while adding a different look to the first PP unit. With the injury to Alex Edler, Sammy has fit nicely into the first PP unit and is, for now anyway, quarterbacking the point with Christian Ehrhoff. Sammy is also happy to back on the 2nd line with Kesler, where they have rekindled their chemistry along side Mason Raymond.

Who’s Not

Night in and night out, Jannik Hansen is one of the hardest working Canucks on the ice, but unfortunately, it hasn’t translated in to much offensive success recently. He only has 1 goal and 1 assist in his last 12 games. While he works tirelessly on the penalty kill and tries to generate chances on the 3rd line with his speed, he just hasn’t been able to finish.

Who’s Next

Monday, February 14, 2011 vs. St. Louis Blues (5:00 PM start, away)

The St. Louis Blues lost both games to the Minnesota Wild in this weekend’s home-and-home series. Since a 5-game win streak to end 2010, the Blues have only 4 wins in 2011. (In contrast, the Canucks have 3 regulation losses in 2011.) The Blues are looking from the outside into the playoff race, sitting in 13th place in the Western Conference.

The Canucks and Blues have split their first two meetings of the season, with the road team coming out on top both times. The Blues won 3-2 in Rogers Arena on December 5th; the Canucks won their latest meeting 3-1 on December 20th in St. Louis.

Alex Steen has 4 points (3G -1A) and is a plus-3 in the season series to date. He has 15 goals, 40 points and a plus-4 rating for the season.

Tuesday, February 15, 2011 vs. Minnesota Wild (5:00 PM start, away)

On the front page of the Minnesota Wild’s website, it says “Every Point Counts”, which is fitting considering that the standings in the Western Conference seem to change every night. Minnesota has been battling with the Flames and Kings for the last playoff spot. The Wild are hot and are currently on a 4-game winning streak; they have an 8-2-0 record in their last 10 games.

The Wild have won 2 of their 3 games against the Canucks this season. Both wins came at home at the Xcel Energy Center where they outscored the Canucks 10-2, including the 4-0 beating just last month. (Incidentally, that loss was the start of a mini-slide where the boys in blue went 0-1-3.)

Martin Havlat has 9 points with a plus-7 rating in his last 10 games. He leads the team in points with 48 (16G – 32A) for the season. He has 3 points in 3 games against the Canucks this season.

Thursday, February 17, 2011 vs. Nashville Predators (5:00 PM start, away)

The Canucks roll into Nashville for the last game of a 3-game road trip. The Preds look different this time with the addition of Mike “Mr. Underwood” Fisher, who came over in a trade from the Ottawa Senators. The Predators are 5-4-1 in their last 10 and are currently sitting in 4th place in the Western Conference.

The Canucks have won the only meeting between the two teams this season, when Lee Sweatt potted his first NHL career goal and first game-winning-goal.

After a few tumultuous years in Montreal, Sergei Kostitsyn seems to have found a home in Nashville. He has 10 points (4-6) in his last 10 games and is second in team scoring, just behind Captain Shea Weber, with 15 goals, 18 assists and 33 points – all are career-highs.

Saturday, February 19, 2011 vs Dallas Stars (7:00 PM start, home)

It’s Hockey Night in Canada and the Canucks are home from a road trip to play against the Dallas Stars. With only 2 wins in their last 9 games, Dallas is just barely holding onto 3rd place in the Western Conference, with the Coyotes only a point back and making a push for the Pacific Division lead.

The Canucks have had Dallas’ number this season winning all 3 previous meetings by a combined score of 15-3. Both Sedins have 6 points each in the 3 games played.

All-Star Loui Eriksson has 4 points (1-3) in his last 5 games and is second in team scoring with 18 goals and 53 points this season. He is also a good plus-14. Eriksson is a pure offensive player and is generally-considered to be one of the most underrated players in the league.

Welcome Back: Sami “Balls of Steel” Salo

The win against the Calgary Flames on Saturday saw the return of Sami Salo.

About a month ago it was unknown whether we would even see Sami back this season or ever. But with the latest string of injuries – unless you’ve been living under a rock for the last couple of weeks, you’ll already know that Edler is out indefinitely after having back surgery, Ballard is out about a month with a sprained knee and Dan Hamhuis was plastered to the boards and will be out indefinitely with a concussion – the return on Sami has happened with opened arms.

Sami’s presence adds so much to the Canucks lineup, and it’s always nice to know we have that blast from the point that would scare any goalie straight. It’ll take a few games for Salo to get back into top playing form, after all this is his “training camp”, but to see #6 back on the ice makes all Canucks fans happy.

So here’s to Sami Salo, we missed you and your balls of steel!

Out of Town Notebook: Salary Cap Woes, Long Shifts and Worried Fanbases

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Oct 152010
 

[Every weekend, Canucks Hockey Blog goes out of town as Tom Wakefield (@tomwakefield88) posts his thoughts on what's happening around the NHL.]

Lou Lamoriello, New Jersey Devils

Photo credit: nj.com

Steve Simmons wrote earlier this week that the salary cap was hurting the league’s best players by forcing them play with AHL-level grinders.

Noting how the cap has forced the New Jersey Devils to play with 15, 16 players, Dave Hodge argues in his latest Hodgemail that the salary cap should be abolished.

Even before the season started, hockey writers were using the salary cap to suggest dynasties aren’t possible in today’s era.

Just so we’re clear, this salary cap criticism? It’s pure hogwash.

The problem isn’t the salary cap. The problem is the league’s General Managers.

Since almost the beginning of its existence, NHL front offices have been littered with ex-players who “understood the code” or “had respect for the game’s institutions.” These were individuals who could identify talent and knew what it took to play professional hockey. It’s been an old boys club – a fraternity – of likeminded, proud men for a long time.

These men also generally share the following traits: little education, business background or financial experience. Up until the 1980s, the absence of these qualities really didn’t matter, since the NHLPA was powerless, and NHL salaries were controlled. But the salary escalation of the 1990s, and now the salary cap, has made managing the “money game” an increasingly vital part of the GMs portfolio.

Today’s GMs have to be smart. They have to creatively work the salary numbers, follow two-, three- and five-year salary plans, and identify players who can provide greater value than they’re being compensated for.

Thanks to the cap, any mistakes are magnified. (Granted, teams have “capologists,” but with all due respect, they’re not the ones making the final say on any player transaction or contract signings.) The days of trading Player A straight up for Player B have passed. And this is why, in the modern NHL, former “horse-traders” like Darryl Sutter and Glen Sather seem so out-to-lunch. It’s why Lou Lamoriello didn’t address his cap situation through trade or waivers (because, most accurately, it would weaken his club on-ice). It’s also why Kevin Lowe and Bobby Clarke moved up the corporate ladders. The job had passed them by.

There’s a new breed of GM required to navigate NHL waters. Unfortunately, for fans of some teams, league culture is not one that so easily embraces change.

THOUGHTS ON THE FLY

  • Three games into the season, and Oiler Coach Tom Renney and Captain Shawn Horcoff have both already publicly criticized the length of Taylor Hall’s 50-second shifts. You know what other young star averaged 50-second shifts last year? Patrick Kane. If you’ve got the horses, you’ve got to let them run a bit. Just ask those who coached Gretzky, Lemieux, Crosby, and a host of other extremely talented offensive players. And what does it say about Taylor Hall that both his coach and captain felt the need to talk about this to the press so early in the season?
  • The loss of John Tavares had most people burying the New York Islanders mere days into the regular season. However, Blake Comeau and Josh Bailey have picked up the slack, with Bailey in particular looking at times like a younger version of captain Doug Weight. The Islanders may not be very good, but they’re building something there.
  • All props to John Tortorella for stressing an up-tempo, pressure style for the Rangers. However, the Rangers can’t be taken seriously in the East until their young defense stops playing giveaway with the opposition.
  • Why should Flames and Wild fans worry just three games into the season? Because each team has only scored one goal at even-strength. Remember, teams that can’t score rarely play meaningful games in April and May.
  • Speaking of worried fan bases, there are troubling signs in Ottawa. There’s an APB out for pointless Alex Kovalev, Pascal Leclaire left his last game – surprise, surprise – hurt, and none of their young players have made any sort of impact yet. Corey Clouston is a solid coach, but this team looks more and more in need of a rebuild.
  • Why is Pittsburgh winless at home? It might have something to do with terrible ice. It looks like Crosby and Malkin are stick handling with a tennis ball on grass out there. Shouldn’t the NHL, in efforts to improve its on-ice product, be investing more into technology that keeps ice firm and hard? Call it the Cialis project.
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