Season Preview: Ranking the Western Conference Forwards (and Ashton Kutcher’s Two and a Half Men Debut)

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Sep 262011
 

What do Michael Ryder and Ashton Kutcher have in common?

Both have previously enjoyed success in supporting roles, and now both are being asked to replace bigger stars that left town after difficult contract negotiations.

It’s doubtful either will make anyone forget who they’re replacing anytime soon.

Last Monday, more than 27 million viewers tuned in to see how Two and a Half Men would replace Charlie Sheen with Ashton Kutcher.

For those that missed it but wondered how it went, allow me to summarize: blandly juvenile.

Granted, juvenile jokes and innuendo are a big reason why Two and a Half Men is the most popular sitcom on television.

But there’s no question the show’s charm had a lot to do with Charlie Sheen playing off his real-life reputation.

Ashton Kutcher brought a different energy to the season premiere. He was Kelso 2.0 – written to be smarter but just as much the same boy-man character who stole laughs and struggled to keep a straight face on That 70’s Show.

Yep, like Sheen, Kutcher is essentially playing himself. That, however, doesn’t make him interesting. Without the sub-text Sheen’s real-life exploits brought to the sitcom, Kutcher isn’t a strong enough actor to create an interesting character on his own. And he’s struggled throughout his career when given opportunities to play a lead role.

Meanwhile, Michael Ryder is essentially the only off-season acquisition the Dallas Stars made to replace Brad Richards. He’s also struggled when asked to play a lead role (see Montreal career), and enjoyed great, Stanley Cup success as a top-nine forward in Boston.

How are he and the rest of the Stars forwards shaping up for the 2011-12 season?

Let’s get to ranking the Western Conference forward groups:

A- Grade

Anaheim
Last Year (B+)

For the second year in a row we have a surprise on top of the list. This result is almost entirely due to three things: Corey Perry’s emergence as the Hart Trophy winner; Bobby Ryan’s development into a near-elite player; and Teemu Selanne’s incredible season as a 287-year old (matched only historically by the 2000 year old man ). The first line of Ryan-Ryan Getzlaf-Perry is the best in the league. Like last year though there are real depth issues beyond the top two lines, with Andrew Cogliano skating like Todd Marchant, but in no way capable of replacing the latter’s defensive abilities. If Selanne plays like his age, and none of the youth (Kyle Palmieri in particular) step up into supporting roles, they move down this list quickly.

B+ Grade

San Jose
Last Year (A-)

Will battle with Los Angeles all year for the title of strongest team down the middle. Martin Havlat also represents a speed upgrade over Dany Heatley, although he’s injury prone and beyond him the right side is fairly punchless.  In fact, like Anaheim this is a team with scoring issues in the bottom six, particularly on the wings. It’s a gritty bunch though, and one that looks tailored for the post-season.

Vancouver
Last Year (A-)

Yet another team at the top of this list with an elite core of scoring talent but some questionable depth. Recently, a James Mirtle piece argued how the Toronto Maple Leafs needed more balanced scoring, as their top four forwards provided 53% of forward goals last season. For the Canucks, the Sedins, Ryan Kesler and Alex Burrows provided 58.7% of Vancouver’s forward goals last year. That’s a lot of pressure on a few players. With Kesler and Mason Raymond’s injuries clouding their potential impact this season, Marco Sturm and Mikael Samuelsson will have to pick up some of the offensive slack. The third line (Chris Higgins, Manny Malholtra, Jannik Hansen) has the makings of one of the better shutdown lines in the league.

Detroit
Last Year (B+)

Strong down the middle with Pavel Datsyuk (maybe the best player in the game), Henrik Zetterberg, Valterri Filppula and Darren Helm. They could really use some help on the wings though, as Dan Cleary and Johan Franzen (despite his playoff scoring reputation) are more appropriate options for a strong second line. The wildcard is Jiri Hudler, who was a George-Lucas-messing-with-the-original-Star-Wars-trilogy-again scale disappointment last season. This is a quick, intelligent group of forwards.

Los Angeles
Last Year (A-)

As discussed above, Anze Kopitar, Mike Richards and Jarrett Stoll give the Kings arguably the strongest set of centremen in the league. The acquisition of Simon Gagne was a wonderful under-the-radar move. His play improved exponentially as the season went on last year in Tampa Bay and he’s shown previous chemistry playing alongside Richards. Kyle Clifford and Brad Richardson are youngsters providing grit on the third line, while Ethan Moreau will try to extend his career as a veteran 4th line presence. Really, if Dustin Penner can demonstrate any kind of scoring consistency, this could be the Conference’s best group of forwards.

B Grade

St. Louis
Last Year (C+)

On paper this a solid, still improving two-way group that might have greater depth than some of the teams ranked higher. While they lack an elite point producer, they could legitimately see seven 20-goal scorers this year (Patrik Berglund, David Backes, Andy McDonald, T.J. Oshie, David Perron, Alex Steen and Chris Stewart). Jason Arnott and Jamie Langenbrunner bring Stanley Cup experience.

Chicago
Last Year (A+)

Make no mistake – the core of the Blackhawks forward brigade (Jonathan Toews, Patrick Sharp, David Bolland, Patrick Kane and Marian Hossa) is good enough to sit atop this ranking. It’s the complimentary players that are still very much a work in progress. Andrew Brunette is a good addition to help the powerplay, but at this point zambonis move faster. Meanwhile, none of Michael Frolik, Viktor Stalberg or Rostislav Olesz has shown any sort of consistency in their young careers. If one of them finds “it” offensively, the ‘Hawks move up this list.

Columbus
Last Year (C-)

Things are looking up in Ohio as Rick Nash finally has some talent to partner with. Jeff Carter and Vaclav Prospal bring much needed scoring depth to the Blue Jacket attack and Ryan Johansen is an elite prospect (although he may be brought along slowly).  The third and fourth lines are inexperienced but play hard. R.J. Umberger and Antoine Vermette are decent second-line talents.

B- Grade

Edmonton
Last Year (C+)

The future is very bright in Edmonton, but it’s not here quite yet. Taylor Hall looks like a future Maurice Richard candidate and Jordan Eberle looks like a future 30-goal scorer. Alex Hemsky is in his contract year, and seems poised for a career year. Then again, that’s said every year, and he always finds a way to get hurt. Adding Ryan Smyth and Eric Belanger addressed two weaknesses (leadership and face-off prowess), but it’s Ben Eager who represents the most important off-season move. Together with Darcy Hordichuk, the Oilers have size that can contribute at the NHL level for the first time in at least two seasons. This group could surprise.

C+ Grade

Minnesota
Last Year (C)

It’s a career crossroads for Dany Heatley. Granted, he played hurt last March and throughout the Sharks playoff run, but a lack of effort has been associated with the former 50-goal scorer for a few seasons now. (You know who else you could say that about? Everyone involved in HBO’s Entourage.) Meanwhile, a healthy Pierre-Marc Bouchard and greater opportunity for Devin Setoguchi give the Wild their best top-six forwards in franchise history.

C Grade

Colorado
Last Year (B+)

Last year’s rankings warned of a potential sophomore slump for this group, and boy did they deliver in that regard. There’s still some real promise here though. Gabriel Landeskog was a terrific draft pick, adding some Brendan Morrow-esque qualities to a young, finesse-based lineup. The question is health as Milan Hejduk is older than some countries; Peter Mueller missed much of last season; and David Jones is a band-aid player. If this group can stay healthy they climb these rankings. 

Dallas
Last Year (C+)

What was a solid top-six is now weaker thanks to Richard’s departure. Jamie Benn will likely shift into the centre ice position, and Ryder will be given every chance to cement himself as a go-to goal scorer on the club. He’s streaky though, which leaves Loui Eriksson the only natural goal-scorer on the roster. Vernon Fiddler and Adam Burish are decent third-line grinders, but there’s very little offense in the bottom-six.

Calgary
Last Year (C+)

The Flames may slip another grade before the start of the season if Jarome Iginla continues to have back troubles. Those back troubles are really no surprise though – he’s been carrying this team for a long time. There’s some nice grit here, and they’ll remain a tough team to play against. But scoring is going to be a struggle. That’s why there’s a lot of pressure on Mikael Backlund to evolve into an impact offensive player this year.

Nashville
Last Year (C-)

With all due respect to Martin Erat, there really isn’t a legitimate first line player on the Predators roster. That being said, this is a team filled with forwards who do the “little things” right, and they may just be the best defensive group collectively in the NHL. In many ways Predators forwards are similar to Calgary as a group, although younger and without an Iginla to build around. Keeping the comparison in mind, Colin Wilson is Nashville’s Mikael Backlund. 

C- Grade

Phoenix
Last Year (C)

You know you’re in trouble when Ray Whitney is the most dangerous forward on the roster. The Coyotes may have the worst group of centres in the NHL, and that’s counting Kyle Turris, who is (inexplicably) holding out. I imagine Turris asking for more money has gone about as well as this. How much longer does Shane Doan really have to play in the desert?

Season Preview: Ranking the Western Conference Bluelines

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Sep 152011
 

The other day, we looked at the Eastern Conference bluelines. Today, let’s look at the Western Conference defence rankings.

A Grade

Chicago
Last Year (A+)

A slip in the ratings heading into 2011-12, as neither Duncan Keith nor Brent Seabrook were quite as good last year as they were the season before. Meanwhile, Nick Hjalmarsson also disappointed. However, Nick Leddy looks like a future top-4 stalwart, and there’s some veteran depth now with the signings of Steve Montador, Sean O’Donnell and Sami Lepisto.

Los Angeles
Last Year (A-)

This is assuming Drew Doughty signs. Otherwise they drop a grade. Doughty struggled with some injuries last year, but he remains a perennial Norris Trophy candidate. Jack Johnson’s plus/minus was awful (-21), but he played well in Doughty’s absence and looks like a legitimate first pairing guy. The rest of the group is an average mix of youth and experience, with Matt Green being the best defensive guy on the team.

Nashville
Last Year (B+)

It should come as no surprise that the three teams with two top-level defencemen on the roster are all ranked at the top of this list. Shea Weber and Ryan Suter round out the trifecta of excellence, and quite easily could be the best twosome of the lot. Jonathon Blum and Ryan Ellis offer some young offensive promise, with Blum in particular looking ready to play 18 minutes a night. Kevin Klein (not this Kevin Kline) and Francis Bouillon are serviceable.

B+ Grade

Phoenix
Last Year (B-)

The Coyote blueline is a veteran heavy group that represents the only real strength the team has heading into the season. Keith Yandle was an offensive force last year, and it will be interesting to see if he can repeat his Norris-worthy campaign. Oliver Ekman-Larsson is the future and will be given more minutes this season.

B Grade

San Jose
Last Year (B+)

Listening to some people, you’d think Brent Burns was the second coming of Scott Niedermayer. He isn’t. Instead, he’s a solid, 40+-point defenceman who can take pressure off Dan Boyle and give the team one of the league’s better top-fours (Boyle/Murray, Burns/Vlasic). Speaking of which, put me down in favour of Picklesnake.

Detroit
Last Year (A-)

Sorry, but Ian White isn’t Brian Rafalski, and the Red Wing defence is weaker due to the latter’s retirement. Niklas Kronwall played the best hockey of his career last year, but the franchise could really use one of Jonathan Ericsson and Jakub Kindl to emerge. Is Nick Lidstrom the greatest defenseman of all time? Discuss.

B- Grade

Anaheim
Last Year (C)

A solid mix of veterans and youth, although the bottom pairing looks quite weak. Taking nothing away from Nick Lidstrom’s historic year as a 40-year old, veteran Lubomir Visnovsky also found himself hooked up to the rejuvenation machine last season. At 35, Visnovsky was deserving of Norris consideration. Toni Lydman is the stabilizing presence, as the Ducks play a lot better with him in the lineup. No one likes to predict a sophomore slump, but it wouldn’t surprise if Cam Fowler regressed a bit in year two.

St. Louis
Last Year (B)

To be honest, who knows exactly what to expect from the Blues defence this year. It’s awfully young and full of promise, kind of like Lindsay Lohan once was (side note: how creepy is it that someone sat down and made that video?). Anyways, we all know how LiLo turned out. That being said, Alex Pietrangelo seems ready to become a top-10 NHL defenceman, and Roman Polak is one of the better defensive players in the league. If Kevin Shattenkirk and Nikita Nikitin can find consistency, this can become an elite group.

Vancouver
Last Year (B+)

They may have only lost Christian Ehroff, but Vancouver’s defence doesn’t seem as deep heading into this season. For one, it’s hard to believe Kevin Bieksa will repeat his career-best performance last year. Similarly, Keith Ballard is a shadow of the player he once was, and would probably benefit from playing on a different team, under a new coach. The Canucks are excited about Chris Tanev and the coach loves Aaron Rome, but neither are ready or capable of playing big minutes. No, the only way Vancouver’s defence moves up these rankings this year is if Alex Edler takes the next step in his development.

C+ Grade

Calgary
Last Year (B)

Let’s just all admit that Jay Bouwmeester is the new Brett Hedican – a beautiful skating defenceman who is average in all other aspects of the game. Anton Babchuk and Chris Butler have puck-moving talent, and add some speed to what was a statuesque Flames blueline. Speaking of statues, Scott Hannan replaces Robyn Regehr as the “Calgary Flame most likely to be passed by an opponent on the way to a scoring chance.”

C Grade

Minnesota
Last Year (C)

I’d be surprised if Wild employees, let alone fans or hockey followers, could name the starting six defenceman who will suit up for the team opening night. With Minnesota moving towards a more offensive approach, Marek Zidlicky could see a jump in production. The philosophical change should also cement roster spots for Marco Scandella and Jared Spurgeon – two decent skating players with puck-moving potential. Nick Schultz is a warrior and underrated.

Dallas
Last Year (D)

Make no mistake, if two of Sheldon Souray, Brad Lukowich, Adam Pardy or Mark Fistric play together at any point in the NHL this year, that pairing will be the worst in the entire league. That the franchise decided to give Sheldon Souray a shot should tell you this will be a rebuilding year in Dallas. Souray wasn’t very good in the AHL last year, and his last regular NHL action was roughly two years ago. The top-two pairings are okay, with Alex Goligoski the most creative, Stephane Robidas and Trevor Daley the most reliable, and Nick Grossman the best defender.

Columbus
Last Year (C+)

They added James Wisniewski, you say. The rest of the top-six is arguably league-worst, I say.

Colorado
Last Year (B-)

They could move back up the standings based on two developments: One, Erik Johnson figures it out and takes the next step (and the scuttlebutt is he’s been a horse preparing in the off-season). Two, Jan Hejda proves it wasn’t a Blue Jacket mirage and he really is one of the better defensive defencemen in the league. We’ll see. Sadly, the rest of the Colorado defence is young and questionable.

C- Grade

Edmonton
Last Year (C-)

There’s nothing wrong with loading up on talented offensive players through the draft. At some point though, the Oilers are going to have to figure out that preventing goals is another way to win games. Ryan Whitney was putting in a team MVP-esque performance last year before he got hurt, and talk is he’s hurt himself again in the off-season. Without Whitney, the Oiler blueline is the worst in the NHL. Theo Peckham is a beast though.

Season Preview: The Impact of Coaching Changes Part 2 and Ranking the Western Conference Coaches

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Sep 072011
 

As discussed in yesterday’s post, changing a coach at mid-season, rather than in the off-season, seems to have a greater positive impact on team performance.

Examining all the coaching moves since the start of the 2005-06 season reveals some other interesting tidbits:

  1. Only four coaches hired at mid-season led their teams to a worse performance than the coach they replaced:
    • 2009-10 Philadelphia: Peter Laviolette (.535) replaced John Stevens (.540). One could argue these are almost equal results.
    • 2008-09 Tampa Bay: Rick Tocchet (.397 winning percentage) replaced Barry Melrose (.438). Funny how Melrose was ridiculed for his performance returning to the bench, while Rick Tocchet demonstrated himself to be just as incompetent.
    • 2008-09 Montreal: Bob Gainey (.500) replaced Guy Carbonneau (.583)
    • 2005-06 Los Angeles: John Torchetti (.417) replaced Andy Murray (.564)

  2. The best improvement by a coach hired in the off-season:
    • 2009-10 Phoenix: Dave Tippett (+28 points after replacing Wayne Gretzky)
    • 2009-10 Colorado: Joe Sacco (+27 points after replacing Tony Granato)
    • 2010-11 Tampa Bay: Guy Boucher (+23 points after replacing Rick Tocchet)
    • 2007-08 Boston: Claude Julien (+18 points after replacing Dave Lewis). You’re not likely to see any of the four names replaced on this list named as NHL head coaches ever again.

  3. The worst performance by teams after hiring a coach in the off-season:
    • 2008-09 Colorado: Tony Granato (-27 points after replacing Joel Quennville)
    • 2010-11 New Jersey: John Maclean + Jacques Lemaire (-24 points after replacing Jacques Lemaire)
    • 2009-10 Edmonton: Pat Quinn (-23 points after replacing Craig MacTavish)
    • 2006-07 Los Angeles: Marc Crawford (-21 points after replacing Andy Murray + John Torchetti)

One final note – for all the talk that Pat Quinn’s coaching time had passed after that brutal 62-point performance for the Oilers, it’s worth noting Tom Renney led an stronger Edmonton team to exactly the same number of points the following season.

Here now are the coaching rankings for the Western Conference:

 A Grade

Mike Babcock – Detroit
Last Year (A)

The best coach in the game? Probably. The demise of the Red Wings has been increasingly predicted over the last few years, and yet it never seems to actually happen. Credit the coach, who knows exactly the right buttons to push to motivate each player.

Barry Trotz – Nashville
Last Year (B+)

Nashville fell a sniper short of upsetting Vancouver in the second round. That’s not Trotz’s fault, who clearly outcoached Alain Vigneault during the series. He’s among the best in the league.

B+ Grade

Joel Quenneville – Chicago
Last Year (B+)

Getting the Blackhawks – a team gutted by so many moves in the offseason that the players probably needed name tags in training camp – into the playoffs last year was an underrated coaching accomplishment.

Alain Vigneault – Vancouver
Last Year (B-)

You coach a team into the Cup Final you get to move up these rankings. Yet, he still has an inexplicable man-crush on Aaron Rome; has turned once-promising Keith Ballard into an ECHL’er; and is at least partially to blame for the unsportsmanlike attitude that permeates Canuck culture. Last year was likely the pinnacle of Vigneault’s coaching career.

B Grade

Randy Carlyle – Anaheim
Last Year (B)

Carlyle headed into last season at a crossroads, with whispers of his having lost the room heard around the league. Instead, the coach and team rallied to a playoff spot. He did a great job not only integrating Cam Fowler into the lineup, but protecting him and his confidence.

Dave Tippet – Phoenix
Last Year (B)

Performed another coaching miracle getting the Coyotes into the playoffs last year, but faces his greatest challenge trying to do that without Ilya Bryzgalov in 2011-12.

B- Grade

Tom Renney – Edmonton
Last Year (B-)

The Oilers featured stronger systems play and a better dressing room atmosphere last year, but failed to improve in the standings. A terrific coaching “teacher,” at some point Edmonton brass will have to ask themselves if Renney has the chops to take a team far into the playoffs. That’s a question that’s still a few seasons off though.

C+ Grade

Terry Murray – Los Angeles (FIRED WATCH)
Last Year (C+)

Let’s make it two years in a row for Murray to find his name on the “Fired Watch.” Expectations haven’t been this high for the Kings since Gretzky was in town. An adequate bench boss, he hasn’t coached a team out of the first round since the Flyers made the Stanley Cup in 1997.

Todd McLellan – San Jose
Last Year (C)

Won a classic series against the Detroit Red Wings (and coach Mike Babcock) and got his team to the Conference Final for the second year in a row. And yet, he still hasn’t really helped the team shed its underachieving label.

C Grade

Davis Payne – St. Louis (FIRED WATCH)
Last Year (C)

With the Blues expected to rise in the standings this year the heat is on Payne, who is also in the final year of his contract. Injuries crippled the team last year, but St. Louis was also inconsistent and prone to weak first period efforts.

Brent Sutter – Calgary (FIRED WATCH)
Last Year (C)

Still looking for the same success in the NHL that he had coaching junior hockey. He seemed a bit more flexible handling his roster once brother Darryl was out of the mix. Still, with a veteran-laden squad like the Flames, it’s playoffs or bust.

Joe Sacco – Colorado
Last Year (C+)

Sacco, heralded as a great communicator after his first year as coach, had a tough second season. The team looked unprepared at times and Sacco’s seemingly random benching of players was odd (Chris Stewart was a healthy scratch before being dealt).

Scott Arniel – Columbus (FIRED WATCH)
Last Year (C)

You know what the definition of a square-peg and round-hole problem is? Meshing Arniel’s puck possession gameplan with the Blue Jackets roster last year. It didn’t work. The personnel is stronger this year in Columbus, so now it’s up to Arniel to deliver some results.

Glen Gulutzan – Dallas
Last Year (N/A)

Another rookie head coach, this time taking over from “The Hair” (aka Marc Crawford). Despite team assurances, it does look like Gulutzan’s price-tag (ie. cheap) played a part in his being hired over other coaching options (Craig MacTavish, Ken Hitchcock, etc). Gulutzan has had an impressive minor league coaching career, particularly in the ECHL. You know who else had a pretty impressive ECHL coaching career? John Brophy, who’s actually in the ECHL Hall of Fame. Just sayin’…

Mike Yeo – Minnesota
Last Year (N/A)

Yeo takes over from Todd Richards, promising to bring offensive hockey to the Wild. The former Penguins powerplay coach is young (39) and, well, eager, as his visit to Finland to meet with Mikko Koivu can attest. He only has one season of head coaching experience though, and the ditches along the NHL highway are full of wannabe assistants who couldn’t make it as head coaches.

Tom’s Round 3 Preview and Predictions

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May 142011
 

Eastern Conference Final

Boston (2) vs Tampa Bay (5)
Season Series: Boston (3-1)

What we learned in Round 2

Boston: There is offense to be found in the Bruin attack. It’s name is David Krejci. Also, that Boston remains an incredibly difficult opponent to generate offense against. Tim Thomas is lurking in the Conn Smyth Trophy weeds.

Tampa Bay: That the team’s 1-3-1 style has effectively neutralized their greatest weakness – a lack of defensive mobility. This Lightning team is playing as well as Montreal defensively right now, but they have the game-breakers the Habs lack to take advantage offensively. Tampa Bay was the most impressive team in the second round.

Pertinent Questions

Boston: Can this team get to the Cup final without their most important forward, Patrice Bergeron? A concussion has knocked him out of the lineup, meaning the Bruins head into the Conference Finals with little skill at centre beyond Krejci. Bergeron will be replaced by Tyler Seguin, and Boston will need him to make a powerplay impact. Success for the rookie is by no means guaranteed.

Tampa Bay: Has all momentum been lost after a 10-day layoff? This team hasn’t played since May 4th. At the time, the Lightning were firing on all cylinders. Dwayne Roloson had turned himself into Johnny Bower 2.0; the defense was holding together and offensively the team was getting contributions from three lines. It will be interesting to see if Tampa Bay can find their game again quickly.

Key Injuries

It’s unclear if Boston’s Bergeron will return at all from his concussion. Tampa expects Simon Gagne (concussion) to start Game 1.

Quick Decisions

Coaching: Tampa Bay. (Guy Boucher put on a clinic on and off-ice against the Capitals in round 2. His post-game comments (specifically portraying the Lightning as underdogs) were masterful, while his gameplay completely neutralized Washington’s attack.)

Goaltending: Boston. (Close thanks to Roloson’s terrific play this post-season. However, the Tampa goalie is a mess when he plays the puck.)

Defense: Boston. (Both teams rely a lot on their top-two pairings. Chara rebounded with an excellent second round against Philly. He’s the best defensemen in the series. However, Eric Brewer is playing the best hockey of his life right now. Again it’s close.)

Scoring: Tampa Bay. (Even if the clock strikes midnight on the scoring exploits of Sean Bergenheim, Steve Downie and Teddy Purcell, the likes of Martin St. Louis, Vincent Lecavalier and Steve Stamkos are better than anything Boston can counter with.)

Special Teams: Tampa Bay. (The Lightning have had excellent special teams all year. While Boston’s powerplay scored twice against the Flyers, it’s still painful to watch.)

Prediction

Boston in 6

*****

Western Conference Final

Vancouver (1) vs. San Jose (2)
Season Series: Vancouver (3-1)

What we learned in round 2

Vancouver: That the argument that Ryan Kesler should be a Hart Trophy candidate holds water and that pre-season talk of him being the team captain was also pretty astute. Two rounds into the post-season, he’s the most important skater on the team. While this was learned long ago, Roberto Luongo’s still prone to crippling mental lapses.

San Jose: That there remains a lot of misinformation about this group being chokers out there. This makes it back-to-back final four appearances for San Jose. Joe Thornton seems to have gone to the Steve Yzerman school of leadership, as his career and reputation mirrors that of the former Red Wings captain before Detroit’s 1997 Cup victory. Thornton was the best player on the ice for most of Game 7 against Detroit.

Pertinent Questions

Vancouver: It’s been the pertinent question the entire post-season – where will the secondary scoring come from? Kesler was in on 11 of the 14 goals Vancouver scored in the second round. If that happens again, the Canucks likely lose this series. The Sedins especially have to find their way on the scoresheet.

San Jose: How much longer can AnttiNiemi backstop his team’s to victory? The win versus Detroit makes it six straight playoff round victories for the unorthodox goalie. Incredibly out of position at times, he’s earning himself a Fuhr-esque reputation for letting in soft goals, but shutting the door when it counts. On paper though the Canucks are the most talented offensive team he has faced in this post-season.

Key Injuries

Vancouver’s Mikael Samuelsson hasn’t had a great post-season, and he’s questionable for Game 1 with a leg injury. Ryan Clowe got his bell rung in the Detroit series, and will play the Conference Final injured for the Sharks. That’s a break for the Canucks.

Quick Decisions

Coaching: San Jose. (That’s two straight playoff victories against Mike Babcock for the Sharks’ Todd Mclellan. Hard to credit Vigneault for winning the Nashville series, since Barry Trotz and the Predators dictated how the games were played.)

Goaltending: Even. (Both goalies are frustratingly inconsistent. Luongo has the higher ceiling of ability but Niemi has previous post-season success in his favour.)

Defense: Vancouver. (Dan Boyle is the best defenseman in the series but the Canucks blueline is a lot deeper. This might be the biggest advantage Vancouver has in the series.)

Scoring: San Jose. (This should be even, but the Canucks really struggled on the attack against Nashvile. San Jose’s three lines can really forecheck and create scoring chances.)

Special Teams: Vancouver. (San Jose’s penalty kill was good for most of the series against Detroit, great in Game 7. Their powerplay however has disappointed all spring. Vancouver’s been solid in both areas, however they’ve struggled with the man advantage at home, scoring just a single goal so far.)

Prediction

San Jose in 6 (Editor’s note: Anyone want to bet Tom on this? – J.J.)

*****

Now a word for the dearly departed:

Detroit Red Wings: Injuries to the team’s best players seemed to catch up to the Red Wings, especially when the team’s “young guns,” particularly Jiri Hudler and Valtteri Filppula, struggled with consistency. Most of the talk this off-season will revolve around Nick Lidstrom’s future, but after the season he had, it’s tough to see him walk away at this point. Injecting some youth into the defense will probably be the team’s priority. However, the team’s offensive stars aren’t getting any younger either. The heart was willing against San Jose, but the ability of the Red Wings franchise these days seems to be in slow decline.

Nashville Predators: It’s quite simple – if the Predators had had just one consistent, B-level offensive player in their lineup, the Canucks series would have gone seven games. In fact, the series result itself may have been different. That’s how well Nashville played against Vancouver. If the Music City team can find a scoring forward, this team could be top-4 in the Conference next year. Resigning Shea Weber is also a must.

Philadelphia Flyers: LIke the Red Wings, injuries, particularly the loss of Chris Pronger, handicapped the Flyers in round two. Yes, team goaltending is the hot-button issue, but without Pronger the Flyers defense was nothing but average. Expect the Flyers to tinker on the back-end, and roll into 2011-12 committed to Sergei Bobrovsky as their number one goalie.

Washington Capitals: Surprising to see how gleeful some folks were to see the Capitals knocked out of the second round. The Capitals are a team at the crossroads, and it’s clear their core group of players aren’t good enough to get the franchise to the next level. Nick Backstrom was awful this post-season, while Alex Semin has been bad two playoffs in a row. Alex Ovechkin has not made any adjustments to his game to
make himself more difficult to defend against. Mike Green has been the team’s worst defender in back-to-back playoffs. One of these players wont be back. Expect Green to be dealt, since there’s more demand for offensive defensemen than one-shot scoring wingers (Semin).

WSF Game 6: Canucks 2 Predators 1

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May 092011
 

At one point of tonight’s telecast, Glenn Healy commented that it was “Kesler Night in Canada”.

It’s hard to think where the Canucks would be had Ryan Kesler not found his scoring touch. Freed from the responsibility of going against last year’s Conn Smythe trophy winner, Jonathan Toews, Kes busted out in a big way and scored or assisted on 11 of the Canucks’ 14 goals this series.

As it stands, both coaches, Barry Trotz and Alain Vigneault, agree that he was the difference maker in this series.

First, Trotz:

“I said to him when I went by out there: ‘If you don’t play like that, we’re going to Game 7 and maybe we win the series,’ ” said Nashville coach Barry Trotz. “He was a force the whole series. We used multiple people against him — we used Mike Fisher a lot, we used Smithson, we used Weber and Suter against him, but he played to a level that few people can reach. He just had one of those series … the most incredible six games that we’ll probably see.”

And then, AV:

Well, he’s obviously decided to drive the bus,” Canucks coach Alain Vigneault said, “and he was our dominant force on the ice, played real strong at both ends of the rink, and we needed that performance — and we need it to continue.”

The Hero

Ryan Kesler. How can it be anyone else? Kes willed this team to victory, not just in this game, but in this entire series. He set up both Canucks goals tonight.

The Goat

Martin Erat. The Preds’ leading scorer in the regular season was a non-factor in game 6. 0 points, 0 shots, a minus-2 rating and a couple of minor penalties.

The Numbers

  • 11. After a quiet 4-assist first round series, Kesler had 11 points (5 goals – 6 assists) in the second round – only a point short of the Canucks’ franchise record of 12 points in one playoff series (Pavel Bure, 1995 vs. St. Louis).
  • 58.9. Kesler won 105 of 178 faceoffs in this series – a FO win percentage of 58.9%.
  • 11. Roberto Luongo allowed just 11 goals against the Nashville Predators, almost half were off his own teammates and only 1 while the Preds were on the powerplay.

The Next Time

A bit of rest for the boys while they await the winner of the other Western Conference Semifinal series between the Detroit Red Wings and San Jose Sharks.

WFS Game 5: Canucks 3 Predators 4

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May 082011
 

For all the pregame talk about treating last night’s game 5 like a game 7, the Canucks failed to deliver.

More specifically, they failed to finish.

The Canucks outplayed the Predators by a large margin to start the game, yet gave up a short-handed goal on their first powerplay opportunity of the game. They did come back and carried a 2-1 lead into the intermission, only to allow the Preds to tie it up less than a minute into the second period.

If the previous playoff seasons were learning experiences, the Canucks missed the classes on killer instinct.

In game 4 against the Blackhawks in 2009, they were ahead 1-0 in the game with a chance to take a 3-1 series lead. But instead of pushing the play and perhaps taking the Hawks out of the series, they sat back, allowed Martin Havlat to tie the game with less than 3 minutes left in the third period, and then lost the game on Andrew Ladd’s game-winner in OT. The Canucks never won a game the rest of the series.

In game 2 against the Blackhawks in 2010, they built a 2-0 lead only 5 minutes into the game with a chance to win the first 2 games of the series in Chicago. They couldn’t find that 3rd goal. Instead, they gave up a short-handed goal early in the third period and the game-winning goal with only 1:30 left in the game.

And as we all remember from a couple of weeks ago, the Canucks won the first 3 games against the Blackhawks in the first round and need four tries to get the 4th win.

There were some good moments in last night’s game – and the Canucks still do have a 3-2 lead in this series – so obviously all is not lost. But as much as you can see the Predators bear down and play like their lives were on the line, you can also see that a few Canucks play their worst games of these playoffs.

That’s not killer instinct, folks.

The Hero

Joel Ward. Ward had 2 more goals, including the game-winner. He now has 12 points in the postseason, only 1 point back of Martin St. Louis and Ryan Kesler for the league lead.

The Goat

Alex Edler. Robo-Edler had a game to forget. Besides looking like he’s labouring out there, he also punched in a goal behind Roberto Luongo.

The Numbers

  • 21. Despite outplaying Nashville throughout this series, the Canucks have only held a 2-goal lead for a grand total of 21 seconds in its first 5 games. That was in game 4 after Henrik Sedin scored into an empty net. On the other hand, while the Predators haven’t played with the lead much, they did have a 2-goal lead for 10 minutes and 29 seconds last night.
  • 4. Daniel Sedin was on the ice for all 4 Nashville goals.
  • 11. Aaron Rome only had 11:45 minutes of ice-time. Meanwhile, Alex Edler played almost 24 minutes. I can’t help but think that, if the Canucks had another capable, top-4 defenseman on the roster (*ahem* Ballard *ahem*), they could’ve put him out on the ice instead of Edler, who was clearly struggling last night.

The Next Time

The team that’s played better has won every game this series. Even though the scores have been tight – largely thanks to Pekka Rinne – the Canucks won the games in which they’ve outplayed the Predators.

Round 2 Game 4 Frame-by-Frame: Henrik Sedin’s Goal

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May 082011
 

The Situation

There’s 29.3 seconds left in the third period, and Vancouver’s clinging to a 3-2 lead. A win would earn a 3-1 stranglehold on the series; a loss would allow Nashville to tie up the series. Vigneault calls a timeout to sketch a set play off the faceoff.

Frame 1

Because he’s a left-handed shot, Henrik Sedin will take the draw against Mike Fisher. Ryan Kesler and Alex Burrows line up on either side of him.

Frame 2

Henrik wins the puck back into the corner for Kesler. All the Predators move in that direction — but notice Burrows sprinting to the point.

Frame 3

Because Kesler’s a right-handed shot, he’s in perfect position to fire a hard shot around the boards. Erat is unable to stop him.

Frame 4

The puck rings around the boards and towards the point.

Frame 5

A sliding Burrows just beats Weber to the puck, as Henrik leaves the zone in anticipation of the pass.

Frame 6

Somehow the puck squirts past Burrows and Weber and up along the boards.

Frame 7

It’s up to Henrik to ice this now. He takes careful aim from the blue line …

Frame 8

… and hits the empty. Henrik finally has his first goal of the playoffs, and Vancouver finally has their first 2-goal lead of this series. Twenty-one seconds later, the horn sounds and the Canucks head home for a chance to finish off the pesky Predators.

Round 2 Game 3 Frame-by Frame: Kesler’s First Goal

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May 052011
 

The Situation

Although Vancouver dominated the first period, the lone goal was a shorthanded marker by Predators’ David Legwand. But in the dying seconds of the period, Luongo suckered the refs into calling a high-sticking penalty on Smithson. The Canucks started the second with the man-advantage, but nearly gave up another shorthanded marker as Ehrhoff turned the puck over twice.

Frame 1

Finally Vancouver gets out of their zone and up the ice. Henrik takes the puck at Nashville’s blue line.

Frame 2

Shane O’Brien’s the lone man back as Henrik and Kesler come in 2-on-1. But instead of passing to Kesler, Henrik drops the puck to his brother.

Frame 3

The Sedins cut to the middle, and Daniel spots the trailer. He quickly throws the puck to Christian Ehrhoff, as Joel Ward spins around figuring out what’s going on.

Frame 4

Ehrhoff glides in. Kesler blocks Rinne, and O’Brien drops to his knees. Everyone’s expecting Ehrhoff to shoot.

Frame 5

Ehrhoff goes by O’Brien as Rinne goes down to stop the shot. Notice how aggressively Rinne is challenging Ehrhoff. Only Kesler anticipates what’s about to happen: he twists around to get his stick ready.

Frame 6

Ehrhoff simply goes around Rinne. Kesler is as wide open as the net is: O’Brien let him go to block Ehrhoff’s shot, and Ward and Klein are standing still, watching.

Frame 7

Finally, Kesler buries one, in his tenth game of the 2011 playoffs. It’s also Vancouver’s first powerplay goal in 5 games.

WSF Game 3: Canucks 3 Predators 2

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May 032011
 

As Henrik Sedin continues to look like he’s playing hurt, Ryan Kesler finally shook off a long playoff scoring slump. With 2 goals – including the OT game-winner – he finally hit the scoresheet and led the Canucks to a 3-2 overtime win and a 2-1 series lead.

The game shouldn’t even have gone to overtime. Like in game 2, the Canucks nursed a 1-goal lead in the third period and allowed the Predators to tie it up late in the game. And like in the first 2 games of this series, Pekka Rinne once again held his team in the game and gave them a chance to win.

But back to Henrik for a second. Is he hurt? He sure looks like it. It’s not an excuse but it’s obvious he’s trying to play through some sort of injury. The good news is, he’s been able to make plays and he was decent in the faceoff circle. And with Burrows and Kesler’s line with Higgins and Raymond taking on the scoring load – not to mention the Canucks now lead the series and and have taken back home ice advantage in the series – perhaps criticism of his and brother Daniel’s play has been relatively muted. I imagine they’d be a lot louder if the series score was the other way around.

The Hero

Ryan Kesler. Kesler had 3 points (2 goals – 1 assist) in 25:26 minutes of ice-time (tops among all forwards).

The Goat

Jerred Smithson. Two undisciplined penalties – one was for a retaliatory shot on Burrows and the other was for a dumb, unprovoked shot on Luongo; the Canucks scored on the latter, which tied the game early in the second period. He also charged at Bieksa and hit him dangerously from behind in OT, which, while the penalty wasn’t called, perhaps drew the make-up call on Shea Weber moments afterwards; Kesler scored the game-winner on the ensuing powerplay.

The Numbers

  • 7. Cody Hodgson had 7 shifts and 5:13 minutes of ice-time in the game. He played 1 shift in the third period and none in overtime.
  • 7. With his goal tonight, Joel Ward, Nashville’s feel-good story of these playoffs, has 7 points to lead all Predators in playoff scoring.
  • 7. Daniel Sedin had 7 shots on goal. He hasn’t scored in 4 games. You gotta think he’s bound to bump his slump, right?

The Next Time

So far, the first 3 games of the series has played out almost similarly. The Canucks would outplay the Predators for large stretches of the game and Pekka Rinne would keep the game within reach. Hard to expect anything else for game 4 on Thursday night.

WSF Game 2: Canucks 1 Predators 2

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May 012011
 

Pekka Rinne is fast becoming the story of this series. After stopping 29 of 30 shots in game 1, Rinne stopped 32 of 33 shots in game 2 to help beat the Canucks 2-1 in double OT. He’s now held what was the best offensive team in the NHL to a measly 2 goals combined in the first 2 games of this series.

Give the Preds credit. They found whatever jump was missing from their game on Thursday and controlled stretches of this game. By the end of it, they had thrown 46 shots on Roberto Luongo.

But for now until game 3, the story will most certainly be the team’s lack of finish. Certainly the Canucks are getting their fair share of chances but just aren’t burying them. They’ve scored a total of 7 goals in the last 5 games (1.40 goals/game) and have been shutout on the powerplay in that same span (0-for-14). And of those 7 goals, Burrows scored 4 of them. (Bieksa, Raymond and Higgins have the others.)

After the game, coach Alain Vigneault noted there wasn’t a lot of room on the ice. Well, duh.

But the Canucks do need to find some room. Or with the way RInne is playing, they need to take away some of his.

The Hero

Pekka Rinne. The 6’5″ Finnish goaltender stole this game for the Preds – he nearly stole game 1 as well for that matter – and now sports a 0.968 save percentage for the series.

The Goat

Henrik Sedin. Last year’s Art Ross winner is point-less in 3 games and only has 1 assist in his last 6 games. He also went an abysmal 12-for-31 in the faceoff circle (38.7%), including a brutal 7-for-20 in the offensive zone (35.0%).

The Numbers

  • 1. The number of powerplay opportunities the Canucks had in almost 5 full periods of hockey. In 9 playoff games this season, the Canucks have yet to have more powerplay opportunities than their opponents.
  • 7:04. Victor Oreskovich was the Canucks’ low-minute man, more than 5 minutes less than Blake Geoffrion, who logged the least TOI (12:11) on the Preds; Oreo didn’t play a shift after the 12-minute mark of the third period.
  • 4. If we’re looking for positives, the Canucks killed all 4 of the Preds’ powerplay chances, including one in OT and another in 2OT. The Canucks have now killed 17 consecutive penalties, dating back to game 5 against the Chicago Blackhawks.

The Next Time

If the Canucks are exhausted after their emotional series against Chicago and then almost immediately beginning their series against Nashville, they’ll get a bit of a break. Game 3 isn’t scheduled until Tuesday.

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