It seems these days not a day goes by that there isn’t something about the mediocre Toronto Maple Leafs that’s making the headlines.
At first blush, the signing of Mikhail Grabovski to a five year, $27.5 million contract seems rather ludicrous. We’re talking about high-end salary for a streaky scorer that’s never put up 30-goals or 60 points.
But is the contract really that far out of whack? Let’s do this arbitration-style, and look at some comparables.
Comparable #1: The 2004 NHL Entry Draft – Part 1
Grabovski was drafted 150th overall by the Montreal Canadiens in the 2004 NHL Entry Draft. There were 30 centres selected prior to that, although only 19 have made the NHL, and only nine have played 240+ games (the rough equivalent of three NHL seasons):
| Player | Drafted | Salary Cap Hit | GP | P | PPG | +/- | PIM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Evgeni Malkin | 2nd | $8.7 M | 410 | 499 | 1.22 | 37 | 406 |
| David Krejci | 63rd | $5.25 M | 359 | 260 | 0.72 | 58 | 128 |
| Mikhail Grabovski | 150th | $5.5 M | 304 | 195 | 0.64 | 10 | 188 |
| Travis Zajac | 20th | $3.89 M | 416 | 252 | 0.61 | 37 | 126 |
| Brandon Dubinsky | 60th | $4.2 M | 377 | 205 | 0.54 | 22 | 446 |
| Dave Bolland | 32nd | $3.375 M | 284 | 148 | 0.52 | 32 | 181 |
| Tyler Kennedy | 99th | $2 M | 309 | 146 | 0.47 | 30 | 162 |
| Rostislav Olesz | 7th | $3.125 M | 355 | 132 | 0.37 | -10 | 118 |
| Torrey Mitchell | 126th | $1.367 M | 263 | 70 | 0.27 | 13 | 137 |
Clearly Malkin remains the best centre taken in the draft. Grabovski though is in the running for second-best (with Krejci, Zajac and Dubinsky).
Comparable #2: The 2004 NHL Entry Draft – Part 2
When you take all players from this entry draft into consideration, there are a group of players who have played a similar number of games to Grabovski:
| Player | Drafted | Salary Cap Hit | GP | P | PPG | +/- | PIM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blake Wheeler | 5th | $2.55 M | 309 | 181 | 0.59 | 54 | 188 |
| Blake Comeau | 47th | $2.5 M | 306 | 132 | 0.43 | -49 | 159 |
| Tyler Kennedy | 99th | $2 M | 309 | 146 | 0.47 | 30 | 162 |
| Kris Versteeg | 134th | $3.083 M | 309 | 196 | 0.63 | 15 | 185 |
| Mikhail Grabovski | 150th | $5.5 M | 304 | 195 | 0.64 | 10 | 188 |
| Troy Brouwer | 214th | $2.35 M | 303 | 132 | 0.44 | -1 | 214 |
Clearly from the above table Kris Versteeg’s career production is the most similar to Grabovski’s. Furthermore, just like Grabovski, Versteeg’s career-to-date is without a 30-goal or 60-point season.
Comparable #3: What Does Cap Geek Say?
A search function on Cap Geek gives the user the chance to find comparable salary cap hits for any player. These are the centres Cap Geek selects as Mikhail Grabovski’s salary comparables:
| Player | Age | Salary Cap Hit | GP | P | PPG | +/- | PIM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Getzlaf | 26 | $5.325 M | 497 | 460 | 0.93 | 64 | 481 |
| John Tavares | 21 | $5.5 M | 227 | 184 | 0.81 | -33 | 97 |
| Jason Pominville | 29 | $5.3 M | 525 | 417 | 0.79 | 41 | 155 |
| Mike Richards | 26 | $5.75 M | 510 | 383 | 0.75 | 43 | 458 |
| Jeff Carter | 27 | $5.27 M | 504 | 370 | 0.73 | 41 | 302 |
| Patrick Sharp | 30 | $5.9 M | 552 | 371 | 0.67 | 59 | 375 |
| Tomas Plekanec | 29 | $5 M | 535 | 353 | 0.66 | 13 | 322 |
| Mikhail Grabovski | 28 | $5.5 M | 304 | 195 | 0.64 | 10 | 188 |
| Ryan Kesler | 27 | $5 M | 545 | 332 | 0.61 | 52 | 487 |
| Shawn Horcoff | 33 | $5.5 M | 749 | 433 | 0.58 | -43 | 479 |
It’s an interesting list. The Horcoff contract is widely regarded as a huge albatross for the Oilers. He’s also the oldest centre on this list, with the most experience (and least production). Kesler has fewer points per game than Grabovski, although he plays a far more well-rounded style (physical, defensive-minded, good on faceoffs) than the Leafs player. In fact, many of the players on this list bring “more to the table” than Grabovski does on a nightly basis.
With his new contract, Grabovski is effectively being paid to produce the type of offense consistent with a first-line player. Yet most of the comparable centres on this list produce more offense than he does.
The majority of players on this list have also played around 500 games, or roughly two more seasons than Grabovski has. While it seems logical to pay a player like Tavares this kind of salary early in his career (he’s an elite talent that the Islanders have locked-up long term), Grabovski is 28-years old. The player he will be is the player he is right now.
And the player he is right now looks like a player who doesn’t necessarily fit in with this group.
Looking at all these lists, it’s clear Grabovski will be overpaid at $5.5 million per season.
Toronto’s desperate for a number one centre. Now they’ve got a player who can’t play like one, but certainly gets paid like one.
THOUGHTS ON THE FLY
- Speaking of the Leafs, Grabovski’s now paid more than Phil Kessel, the Leafs top scorer. That can’t sit well with Kessel, who’s carried the team’s offense this season. It also gets the Spidey-senses tingling – maybe there could be a Rick Nash for Phil Kessel trade in the off-season after all.
- From a few weeks ago, here’s the Globe and Mail’s James Mirtle on what Grabovski is worth.
- Final Leafs note – Randy Carlyle will bring necessary structure to the Toronto Maple Leafs. But let’s not forget Ducks players grew to hate their coach, and dressing room issues were a large part of the last two years in Anaheim. It would not be a surprise to see, at the end of the day, that Ron Wilson will have coached more Leaf games than Randy Carlyle.
- I lied about it being the final Leafs note. This happened today on Toronto radio. Must bring back warm memories for Vancouver sports radio listeners.
- Rumoured complaints by the Senators, Canucks and Maple Leafs about Ron Maclean and Don Cherry are just another reason why it’s easy to believe the CBC is getting out of the hockey business after their contract runs out.
- So Sidney Crosby’s head is clear and it looks like he might be ready to go for the playoffs. Except that the playoffs are played at a faster, more physical pace than the regular season. In everyone’s rush to get Crosby back on the ice, isn’t it in his best interests to take as much time off as possible and start fresh for the 2012-13 season?
- The Globe and Mail selects the 2014 Men’s Olympic Hockey Team so Steve Yzerman doesn’t have to.
- Interesting news that Canada currently sits fourth in the world hockey rankings. Here are the top-10 rankings in descending order: Russia; Finland; Sweden; Canada; Czech Republic; United States; Switzerland; Germany; Norway; Slovakia.
- Dobber writes a personal note to George McPhee and Ted Leonsis that sounds similar to what was said in this space a few weeks ago.
- Not making too big a deal about this, but Tim Thomas’s numbers in 2012 aren’t at their usual level of excellence (11-9, 2.66 goals against, .909 save percentage). With Tuukka Rask out and Marty Turco signed, the Bruins have to hope that Thomas finds his old form in time for the playoffs.
- Grant Clitsome on playing in Winnipeg: “The hardest thing to adjust to was having to shout at your teammates as you can’t hear them with how loud the crowd is.”
- In case you missed it, a breakdown of each team’s height, weight and age post-trade deadline.
- A nice analysis on Fear the Fin about the San Jose Sharks recent slide.
- Elliotte Friedman’s 30 Thoughts.