When the Tampa Bay Lightning signed Victor Hedman to a 5-year, $20 million deal earlier in the week, there weren’t too many people complaining.
The online community, particularly Tampa Bay fans, applauded Steve Yzerman for keeping Hedman’s cost relatively low. According to the consensus, $4 million a year for 5 years is a great price for an improving, future franchise defenseman.
There’s no question Hedman is an improving player, particularly on the defensive side of the game.
But franchise cornerstone? Someone who dominates at both ends of the ice?
I’m not so sure Hedman has that in him.
I decided to compare eight under-24 blueliners to Hedman. I averaged each player’s career totals (up to December 1st) out over an 82-game schedule to create a fair comparison.
| Born | Name | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | Shots | Hits | Blocked Shots | Giveaways | Takeaways |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1988 | E. Johnson | 8 | 29 | 36 | -11 | 56 | 167 | 93 | 103 | 49 | 37 |
| 1989 | D. Doughty | 11 | 31 | 42 | 4 | 60 | 140 | 134 | 97 | 75 | 25 |
| 1989 | L. Schenn | 4 | 16 | 20 | -5 | 58 | 115 | 225 | 143 | 71 | 35 |
| 1990 | V. Hedman | 4 | 19 | 23 | -3 | 80 | 105 | 68 | 106 | 58 | 34 |
| 1990 | Z. Bogosian | 9 | 16 | 25 | -13 | 61 | 163 | 156 | 110 | 51 | 41 |
| 1990 | T. Myers | 10 | 31 | 41 | 4 | 37 | 115 | 101 | 121 | 79 | 36 |
| 1990 | A. Pieterangelo | 11 | 27 | 38 | 12 | 23 | 161 | 56 | 112 | 34 | 45 |
| 1990 | E. Karlsson | 10 | 38 | 48 | -19 | 46 | 191 | 49 | 70 | 77 | 54 |
Then, I ranked each player 1 to 8 in each category (1 if they ranked first in the category and 8 if they ranked last) and added up their scores.
| Rank | Name | Salary after 2011/2012 | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | Shots | Hits | Blocked Shots | Giveaways | Takeaways | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pieterangelo | $3.16 M | 1 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 29 |
| 2 | Myers | $5.5 M | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 5 | 37 |
| 3 | Karlsson | RFA | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 41 |
| 4 | Doughty | $7.0 M | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 7 | 6 | 8 | 42 |
| 5 | E. Johnson | RFA | 6 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 44 |
| 6 | Bogosian | $2.5 M | 5 | 7 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 47 |
| 7 | Schenn | $3.6 M | 7 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 51 |
| 8 | Hedman | $4.0 M | 7 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 8 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 62 |
Yikes, Hedman-fans.
According to this list, Hedman actually comes in last, behind the much-maligned Erik Johnson, Zach Bogosian and Luke Schenn.
Granted, this isn’t exactly the most scientific method. For example, Alex Pieterangelo is probably helped from having played only one full season’s worth of games. However, I think the exercise fairly highlights the biggest flaw in Hedman’s game – his offense.
When Hedman was drafted, he was described as a shifty and creative offensive prospect.
That just hasn’t materialized.
Will it?
Let’s take a quick look at the point production of some of the league’s better offensive defensemen after their first three years in the NHL.
| Rank | Name | Salary after 2011/2012 | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | Shots | Hits | Blocked Shots | Giveaways | Takeaways | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pieterangelo | $3.16 M | 1 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 29 |
| 2 | Myers | $5.5 M | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 5 | 37 |
| 3 | Karlsson | RFA | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 41 |
| 4 | Doughty | $7.0 M | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 7 | 6 | 8 | 42 |
| 5 | E. Johnson | RFA | 6 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 44 |
| 6 | Bogosian | $2.5 M | 5 | 7 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 47 |
| 7 | Schenn | $3.6 M | 7 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 51 |
| 8 | Hedman | $4.0 M | 7 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 8 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 62 |
Ouch again.
Look, Hedman is young enough that there is still considerable room for him to grow as an NHL player.
But it’s fair to say there are already signs that he may never become the offensive player he was expected to be.
Hedman looks like another Zbynek Michalek (0.28 points/game), Marc Staal (0.25 pts/gm) or Eric Brewer (0.28 pts/gm).
That’s not a bad career path, but it’s not exactly the one he was hyped to have when drafted.
THOUGHTS ON THE FLY
- Even after a 6-5 loss to Nashville, and some weak defensive play lately, I’d still pick the Canucks right now to win the Northwest Division.
- Just one man’s opinion, but here’s betting Paul Maurice’s career as an NHL head coach is over.
- One of the definitions of madness is repeating something over and over with the expectation of a different result. That’s why it’s crazy the Washington Capitals replaced Bruce Boudreau with Dale Hunter. The Caps front-office wanted Boudreau to be tougher on his players, and he was this year. It didn’t work. What makes anyone think Hunter, who it seems is being asked to coach the same way (limited minutes so far for Ovechkin, for example), will have any more success? Sure, Hunter was a former NHL player, but many of his players were toddlers when he had his best days in the league. And remember – junior coaches don’t exactly have the best track record jumping straight into the NHL.
- Meanwhile, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Bruce Boudreau get a lot out of the Ducks. Randy Carlyle was hard on his players; Boudreau is a player’s coach.
- Is it too soon to anoint Jhonas Enroth an NHL starting goalie? The Sabres have 3 wins in 10 games since Ryan Miller’s injury. Enroth’s five-hole at times during this stretch has been Allan Bester-esque.
- Beware Western Conference – the Red Wings are heating up. They hit an estimated 569 posts against Buffalo, moving the puck around like they had a 60-minute powerplay.
- Here’s Forbes’ report on NHL franchises. My favourite stat – teams are worth 47% more than they were before the lockout. Also: the Jets are worth 21% more playing in Winnipeg than they were in Atlanta.
- Speaking of franchise values, hard to disagree with the common sentiment right now that the league’s headed for another work stoppage. NHL owners must be looking at the NFL and NBA deals and licking their lips.
- A quiet milestone – the NHL has reached its 1000th shootout. Most goals – Jussi Jokinen. Most attempts – Brad Richards.
- Before Friday night’s game, Edmonton’s Ryan Nugent-Hopkins was on an 89-point pace over a full season. That’s the most rookie points since Sidney Crosby (102) and Alex Ovechkin (106) in 2005-06.
- For those counting the hours until there are changes in Columbus, it should be noted the team is 5-3-2 (not including their result against Edmonton) since Jeff Carter returned to the lineup November 12th.