Dec 032011
 

When the Tampa Bay Lightning signed Victor Hedman to a 5-year, $20 million deal earlier in the week, there weren’t too many people complaining.

The online community, particularly Tampa Bay fans, applauded Steve Yzerman for keeping Hedman’s cost relatively low. According to the consensus, $4 million a year for 5 years is a great price for an improving, future franchise defenseman.

There’s no question Hedman is an improving player, particularly on the defensive side of the game.

But franchise cornerstone? Someone who dominates at both ends of the ice?

I’m not so sure Hedman has that in him.

I decided to compare eight under-24 blueliners to Hedman. I averaged each player’s career totals (up to December 1st) out over an 82-game schedule to create a fair comparison.

BornNameGAP+/-PIMShotsHitsBlocked ShotsGiveawaysTakeaways
1988E. Johnson82936-1156167931034937
1989D. Doughty113142460140134977525
1989L. Schenn41620-5581152251437135
1990V. Hedman41923-380105681065834
1990Z. Bogosian91625-13611631561105141
1990T. Myers1031414371151011217936
1990A. Pieterangelo1127381223161561123445
1990E. Karlsson103848-194619149707754

Then, I ranked each player 1 to 8 in each category (1 if they ranked first in the category and 8 if they ranked last) and added up their scores.

RankNameSalary after 2011/2012GAP+/-PIMShotsHitsBlocked ShotsGiveawaysTakeawaysTotal
1Pieterangelo$3.16 M154114731229
2Myers$5.5 M323226428537
3KarlssonRFA311831887141
4Doughty$7.0 M122265376842
5E. JohnsonRFA645642562444
6Bogosian$2.5 M576773243347
7Schenn$3.6 M778556115651
8Hedman$4.0 M767488654762

Yikes, Hedman-fans.

According to this list, Hedman actually comes in last, behind the much-maligned Erik Johnson, Zach Bogosian and Luke Schenn.

Granted, this isn’t exactly the most scientific method. For example, Alex Pieterangelo is probably helped from having played only one full season’s worth of games. However, I think the exercise fairly highlights the biggest flaw in Hedman’s game – his offense.

When Hedman was drafted, he was described as a shifty and creative offensive prospect.

That just hasn’t materialized.

Will it?

Let’s take a quick look at the point production of some of the league’s better offensive defensemen after their first three years in the NHL.

RankNameSalary after 2011/2012GAP+/-PIMShotsHitsBlocked ShotsGiveawaysTakeawaysTotal
1Pieterangelo$3.16 M154114731229
2Myers$5.5 M323226428537
3KarlssonRFA311831887141
4Doughty$7.0 M122265376842
5E. JohnsonRFA645642562444
6Bogosian$2.5 M576773243347
7Schenn$3.6 M778556115651
8Hedman$4.0 M767488654762

Ouch again.

Look, Hedman is young enough that there is still considerable room for him to grow as an NHL player.

But it’s fair to say there are already signs that he may never become the offensive player he was expected to be.

Hedman looks like another Zbynek Michalek (0.28 points/game), Marc Staal (0.25 pts/gm) or Eric Brewer (0.28 pts/gm).

That’s not a bad career path, but it’s not exactly the one he was hyped to have when drafted.

THOUGHTS ON THE FLY

  • Even after a 6-5 loss to Nashville, and some weak defensive play lately, I’d still pick the Canucks right now to win the Northwest Division.
  • Just one man’s opinion, but here’s betting Paul Maurice’s career as an NHL head coach is over.
  • One of the definitions of madness is repeating something over and over with the expectation of a different result. That’s why it’s crazy the Washington Capitals replaced Bruce Boudreau with Dale Hunter. The Caps front-office wanted Boudreau to be tougher on his players, and he was this year. It didn’t work. What makes anyone think Hunter, who it seems is being asked to coach the same way (limited minutes so far for Ovechkin, for example), will have any more success? Sure, Hunter was a former NHL player, but many of his players were toddlers when he had his best days in the league. And remember – junior coaches don’t exactly have the best track record jumping straight into the NHL.
  • Meanwhile, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Bruce Boudreau get a lot out of the Ducks. Randy Carlyle was hard on his players; Boudreau is a player’s coach.
  • Is it too soon to anoint Jhonas Enroth an NHL starting goalie? The Sabres have 3 wins in 10 games since Ryan Miller’s injury. Enroth’s five-hole at times during this stretch has been Allan Bester-esque.
  • Beware Western Conference – the Red Wings are heating up.  They hit an estimated 569 posts against Buffalo, moving the puck around like they had a 60-minute powerplay.
  • Here’s Forbes’ report on NHL franchises. My favourite stat – teams are worth 47% more than they were before the lockout. Also: the Jets are worth 21% more playing in Winnipeg than they were in Atlanta.
  • Speaking of franchise values, hard to disagree with the common sentiment right now that the league’s headed for another work stoppage. NHL owners must be looking at the NFL and NBA deals and licking their lips.
  • A quiet milestone – the NHL has reached its 1000th shootout. Most goals – Jussi Jokinen. Most attempts – Brad Richards.
  • Before Friday night’s game, Edmonton’s Ryan Nugent-Hopkins was on an 89-point pace over a full season. That’s the most rookie points since Sidney Crosby (102) and Alex Ovechkin (106) in 2005-06.
  • For those counting the hours until there are changes in Columbus, it should be noted the team is 5-3-2 (not including their result against Edmonton) since Jeff Carter returned to the lineup November 12th.
Nov 282011
 

NHL standings are a lie.

Well, for the most part they’re a lie. You see, there are only two days in the schedule where all 30 teams will have played the same number of a games: the first day of the regular season and the last day of the regular season.

In between these two days, 30 different NHL team schedules create standings that reward or punish teams that have played more or fewer games than their opponents.

Now as usual around these parts, you’re probably wondering why this is relevant. Well, the week of U.S. Thanksgiving is usually the time of the year when most NHL teams have played 20 games or a quarter of their season.

It’s the time of the year when navel-gazing (for those who can see their navels) is ramped up for fans, and general managers start making decisions about their clubs.

As a public service, here now are the real, unvarnished NHL standings after a quarter of the season. They reflect each team’s results through their first 20 games of the year.

Western Conference

1. San Jose – 27 points

Powerplay: 4 / Penalty Kill: 29 / Goals For: 7 / Goals Against: 5

What’s working: The top-two lines have carried the offensive load and continue to demonstrate they’re among the league’s best. With Martin Havlat and Brent Burns, this is a quicker team than Sharks teams of yore – one that’s capable of an even stronger counter attack. The “Hot Pickle,” Marc-Edouard Vlasic, is playing the best hockey of his career. Both goalies Antti Niemi and Thomas Griess have played well.

What’s not: Havlat, while bringing speed and creativity to the attack, only has one goal. Colin White is a team worst -4. The penalty kill has been frustratingly bad.

2. Minnesota – 27 points

Powerplay: 26 / Penalty Kill:12 / Goals For: 28 / Goals Against: 1

What’s working: Mike Yeo, in his first year behind the Wild bench, has instilled a work-ethic, discipline and resiliency that’s helped the Wild reclaim its tight-checking identity and lead the Northwest Division. Let’s not forget Niklas Backstrom and Josh Harding, who combined have been the best goaltending tandem in the league so far. Minnesota’s blueline, while lacking name-recognition, is very mobile and sound positionally. They’re exhibit A when it comes to “greater than the sum of its parts.”

What’s not: Consistent with their franchise history, the Wild still can’t score. Dany Heatley is playing the best defensive hockey of his career, but he doesn’t look like a 40-goal threat anymore. Coach Mike Yeo hasn’t found a line-“fit” for Devin Setoguchi either. The powerplay is crying out for a real quarterback: Marek Zidlicky has fewer powerplay points (2) than Chicago’s “swash-buckling” Steve Montador (5).

3. Chicago – 27 points

Powerplay: 18 / Penalty Kill: 26 / Goals For: 2 / Goals Against: 16

What’s working: The Patrick Kane experiment at centre is going very well. Together with linemates Patrick Sharp and Dan Carcillo, Chicago’s second-line is a nice combination of grit, speed and two-way play. Nick Leddy has looked very good when paired with Nick Hjarlmalsson and has settled into a role on the first powerplay unit. Ray Emery, despite a no-show against Edmonton, has given the Blackhawks better goaltending in a back-up role then the team got from Marty Turco last year. Marian Hossa is back as a top-performer.

What’s not: Inconsistency in three areas: The penalty kill, Corey Crawford and Duncan Keith. Keith at times looks like he’s trying to do too much on the ice, while Crawford has ricocheted between spectacular and pedestrian all season.

4. Phoenix – 25 points

Powerplay: 27 / Penalty Kill: 5 / Goals For: 12 / Goals Against: 12

What’s working: Mike Smith is doing an incredible Ilya Bryzgalov impression, and fulfilling some of the promise that originally had him pegged as Dallas’s future #1 goalie after Marty Turco. The Coyotes feature two-way depth at centre as well, with Martin Hanzal, Daymond Langkow and Boyd Gordon all contributing. Phoenix is also taking the fewest penalties in the league, which speaks to team discipline. Radim Vrbata’s been hot and is on a 40-goal pace.

What’s not: Despite having some nice pieces, the Coyotes powerplay is struggling. While Dave Tippett’s style is to keep three-alarm scoring chances against to a minimum, Phoenix is still routinely out-shot.

5. Detroit – 25 points

Powerplay: 9 / Penalty Kill: 22 / Goals For: 8 / Goals Against: 6

What’s working: The retirement of Brian Rafalski has had a negligible impact on Detroit’s defense thanks to strong performances from Ian White, Mark Stuart and Niklas Kronvall. Meanwhile, Jimmy Howard is giving the Red Wings some of the best goaltending they’ve seen in a long time. He’s been Vezina-calibre through the first quarter. The powerplay remains a weapon, with Johan Franzen and Valtteri Filppula playing well.

What’s not: Todd Bertuzzi, Daniel Cleary and especially Henrik Zetterberg have all struggled to score through the first 20 games, while hopes of Jiri Hudler’s resurgence have faded. Surprisingly, for a veteran team, consistency on a nightly-basis has been a real struggle.

6. Nashville – 24 points

Powerplay: 17 / Penalty Kill: 11 / Goals For: 16 / Goals Against: 14

What’s working: This has been the best stretch of David Legwand’s career, and he’s quietly become one of the better two-way forwards in the league. Craig Smith, plucked from college hockey, is the surprise team leader in goals (7) and points (16). Despite the weight of expectations that come with a gigantic new contract, Pekka Rinne has played up to his high standards.

What’s not: As debate over the futures of Ryan Suter and Shea Weber continues, it should be noted that the rest of the Predators blueline hasn’t exactly been lights out. Jonathan Blum’s playoff performance hasn’t carried over into the regular season, while Kevin Klein is somehow a -11. The Big Two are carrying the defense.

7. Dallas – 24 points

Powerplay: 15 / Penalty Kill: 15 / Goals For: 20 / Goals Against: 17

What’s working: Similar to Minnesota, new coach Glen Gulutzan has got the Dallas Stars strongly executing a defensive system that’s frustrating opponents. This team is much stronger 5-on-5 than they were last season. Jaime Benn looks like a potential top-10 NHL scorer, and has helped the team overcome the loss of Brad Richards. The third line of Vern Fiddler, Radek Dvorak and Eric Nystrom has been one of the more effective checking lines in the league so far. Goalie Kari Lehtonen is playing his heart out.

What’s not: For a team that’s not exactly an offensive juggernaut, it’s taken too many penalties so far. Brendan Morrow’s on a 12-goal pace. The special teams remain average.

8. Los Angeles – 23 points

Powerplay: 10 / Penalty Kill: 16 / Goals For: 24 / Goals Against: 7

What’s working: This may be the strongest defensive team the Kings have had in quite some time, backstopped by a stellar Jonathan Quick. Rookie Slava Voynov has shown real offensive flair on the blueline, taking heat off of Drew Doughty (who hasn’t brought his A-game many nights). Mike Richards is well on his way to becoming as big a fan favourite in Los Angeles as he was in Philadelphia. Simon Gagne is playing like his old self, while Anze Kopitar is currently the best player you’re not paying any attention to.

What’s not: Well, for starters putting Ethan Moreau on the powerplay recently. That’s like giving your opponent an extra penalty killer. It was a strange coaching decision, but one that probably underscores just how poorly Dustin Penner has played. Jarrett Stoll has disappointed in a third line role and could become trade bait, especially with the team looking to give more ice-time to centre Andrei Loktionov. Overall, the team needs to score more.

9. St. Louis – 22 points

Powerplay: 30 / Penalty Kill: 25 / Goals For: 21 / Goals Against: 4

What’s working: Ken Hitchcock, another example of what usually happens when you replace a coach mid-season. The Blues are as tight as a drum defensively these days. Kevin Shattenkirk has carried on from last season and it looks like the Blues stole him from Colorado. Alex Steen is the team’s most valuable forward and is on a 30-goal pace. Brian Elliott has resurrected his career in goal and has outplayed Jaroslav Halak at times.

What’s not: The offense, particularly the powerplay, has been awful. Patrik Berglund has slept through most of the first quarter-season, as has Chris Stewart. Barret Jackman, an important veteran looked to be a shutdown presence on defense, has had too many brain cramps.

10. Edmonton – 22 points

Powerplay: 5 / Penalty Kill: 7 / Goals For: 22 / Goals Against: 9

What’s working: Some of the kids – Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Taylor Hall and Jordan Eberle – have been good-to-great offensively, and compete hard on a nightly basis. Ryan Smyth is playing his best hockey since leaving Edmonton the first time, and has partnered with Shawn Horcoff and Ryan Jones to form an effective second/shutdown line. Nikolai Khabibulin has surprised everyone with strong goaltending, while Corey Potter has come out of nowhere to play important minutes on a decimated Oilers blueline.

What’s not: The other kids – Magnus Paajarvi and Linus Omark – haven’t competed well in their sophomore seasons, with the latter playing his way into the AHL. Their struggles have left the team with little scoring depth. The Oilers are still learning how to play 5-on-5, with injuries to the defense really hampering the team’s own-zone play. Sam Gagner doesn’t seem to have a role right now, and could be moved for a defenseman. Impending UFA Ales Hemsky has been off and on the IR. When healthy he’s looked like the point-per-game performer he can be. The front office will have to make a tough decision on his future shortly.

11. Vancouver – 21 points

Powerplay: 1 / Penalty Kill: 8 / Goals For: 9 / Goals Against: 18

What’s working: The Sedins, who remain among the league’s elite. Cory Schneider has played like a first-string goalie. Jannik Hansen has proven sometimes his hands can keep up with his feet. Maxim Lapierre and Chris Higgins have played like they were born to wear Canuck sweaters. The special teams are good. Schneider has been better than good.

What’s not: The blueline hasn’t played up to its potential, with Kevin Bieksa regressing and Keith Ballard playing as if he wished he was anywhere but on the ice. Alex Edler has picked up the offensive slack from the departed Christian Erhoff, but he still has room to grow in his own zone. In fact, on too many nights the team’s best defensemen has been Sami Salo. Meanwhile, secondary scoring – Vancouver’s hidden achilles heal (not-named Roberto Luongo’s psyche) – is MIA. David Booth has the talent to be a solution, but there are whiffs of Alain Vigneault/Keith Ballard 2.0 coming from his doghouse.

12. Colorado – 19 points

Powerplay: 2 / Penalty Kill: 27 / Goals For: 19 / Goals Against: 23

What’s working: The team’s getting chances, regularly out-shooting its opponents. Shane O’Brien and Ryan Wilson have surprised, playing above expectations. Gabriel Landeskog is quietly putting together a solid rookie season. The powerplay has been lights out. J.S. Giguere has outplayed expected starting goalie Semyon Varlamov badly.

What’s not: Varlamov, who has looked Andrew Raycroft-esque. Erik Johnson, who continues to play like Jay Boumeester’s less physical cousin. In fact, Johnson (-12) and partner Jan Hejda (-15) have really struggled together. Peter Mueller’s injury issues have robbed the team of a dynamic top-six forward. Finally, Joe Sacco looks like a coach that’s running out of time and ideas.

13. Calgary – 17 points

Powerplay: 24 / Penalty Kill: 24 / Goals For: 27 / Goals Against: 19

What’s working: Well, Miikka Kiprusoff’s the same-old, same-old, keeping the Flames in games whenever he can. The rookies, particularly Roman Horak, have given Calgary a bit of speed and fans a bit of hope. Curtis Glencross hasn’t turned into a pumpkin after signing his contract. In fact, he’s on pace for 25-goals.

What’s not: How about Jay Feaster’s decision to pretty much stay-the-course since he became the team’s general manager? This team was crying out for a rebuild last season. Henrik Karlsson hasn’t played well-enough in goal to warrant giving Kiprusoff greater rest than in previous seasons. Jarome Iginla’s slow start has lasted longer than usual, which makes sense for a player who’s carried the team on his back for almost two decades. Mikael Backlund, touted as having potential first-line centre talent, has been ineffective when in the lineup. The special teams have been special in a “special bus” kind of way.

14. Anaheim – 16 points

Powerplay: 21 / Penalty Kill:  6 / Goals For: 29 / Goals Against: 20

What’s working: Teemu Selanne remains an elite contributor despite being as old as Moses. The penalty kill continues to get the job done.

What’s not: Pretty much everything else. The top-line of Corey Perry-Ryan Getzlaf-Bobby Ryan hasn’t dominated by any stretch of the imagination. Sophomore Cam Fowler remains an adventure in his own zone, while Lubomir Visnovsky’s offense has dried up (4 points in 16 games) as the powerplay has strugged. Jonas Hiller, a Vezina-worthy goalie last season, has been pedestrian. The Ducks take too many penalties, and are among the league’s worst at 5-on-5. Last season the talk was Randy Carlyle had lost the room, but the Ducks turned it around a few months in. It’ll be interesting to see if that happens again.

15. Columbus – 12 points

Powerplay: 23 / Penalty Kill: 30 / Goals For: 25 / Goals Against: 30

What’s working: Vinny Prospal has been terrific, and created a spark of offense with whomever he’s played with. Blue Jackets fans have had to consult the internet to find out what Curtis Sanford has given them. It’s called decent goaltending folks.

What’s not: It’s easy to pick on the Blue Jackets since they’ve obviously been the worst team in the league through 20 games. Injuries and James Wisniewski’s suspension really put the team behind the eight-ball right out of the gate. GM Scott Howsen is remaining patient, as it’s hard to evaluate a roster when it’s missing key players. That being said, the team’s best players certainly haven’t played very well, with Rick Nash and Derrick Brassard in particular going through the motions at times. Scott Arniel has already changed the team’s system to a more defensive approach to compensate for the absence of scoring they expected to have. Bigger changes aren’t that far off.

Nov 042011
 

Dear Gary (aka Bettman-in-da-house, aka Mr. Commish, aka Saviour-of-Winnipeg),

Not to go all Peaches and Herb (or Jeremy Roenick), but “realignment and it feels so good!”

NHL realignment is the hot talk around the league right now, and I know reviews are mixed concerning your latest plan to re-shape the NHL.

Personally, I like what you’ve reportedly done:

Eastern Conference
Division 1Division 2
PhiladelphiaDet/CBJ
WashingtonMontreal
New York RangersOttawa
New York IslandersBoston
New JerseyBuffalo
CarolinaToronto
Tampa BayPittsburgh
Florida
Western Conference
Division 1Division 2
Det/CBJVancouver
WinnipegEdmonton
ChicagoCalgary
DallasColorado
NashvillePhoenix
St. LouisLos Angeles
MinnesotaAnaheim
San Jose

The first round of the playoffs features divisional play (1 vs 4, 2 vs 3).

After the first round, the remaining teams are seeded 1-4, with 1 playing 4, 2 vs 3, etc.

Now, the Penguins and Flyers hate this proposal, because they’ve got a good rivalry going that fills their rinks, and playing in different divisions will hurt that.  

Teams in the proposed eight-team divisions also have a gripe, because mathematically they have a smaller chance of making the playoffs than teams in a seven-team division.

But you know what Gar (can I call you Gar, as in Danny Gare?), I think you should tell these complainers to stuff it. Your proposed plan reduces travel, solves most (but not all) of the league’s geographic issues, and doesn’t do too much to upset most of the NHL’s current/historic rivalries.

Listen. I’m in a charitable mood. I like what you’ve done for hockey in Edmonton and Winnipeg. I like the salary cap era.

Here are two tweaks that take your plan to the next level.

Tweak #1 – Level the playing field

The biggest gripe I’ve seen outside of Pittsburgh and Philadelphia involves the notion of 8-team divisions and 7-team divisions competing for the same number of playoff spots (4).

That’s easy to fix: make both divisions in each conference the same size. The Eastern Conference gets 16 teams, the Western Conference 14 teams: 

Eastern Conference
Division 1Division 2
PhiladelphiaDetroit
WashingtonMontreal
New York RangersOttawa
New York IslandersBoston
New JerseyBuffalo
CarolinaToronto
Tampa BayPittsburgh
FloridaColumbus
Western Conference
Division 1Division 2
ColoradoVancouver
WinnipegEdmonton
ChicagoCalgary
DallasPhoenix
NashvilleLos Angeles
St. LouisAnaheim
MinnesotaSan Jose

The first round of the playoffs still features divisional play (1 vs 4, 2 vs 3). After the first round, the remaining teams are seeded 1-4, with 1 playing 4, 2 vs 3, etc.

With this small tweak, every team in each Conference has the same odds of making the playoffs. Columbus joins Detroit moving to the East, where both teams geographically should be and want to be. Colorado moves to the “Central-esque” division, where it probably could be if you ever looked at a map of all NHL teams.

Sure, someone may suggest that there’s a greater chance of making the playoffs in the Western Conference than the Eastern Conference. You know what I say to them, Gar? That’s the price you pay for saving thousands of dollars on travel costs, you cheap bastards.

Actually, there’s only one issue with this tweak.

What the heck happens if you have to move the Coyotes out of Phoenix?

Yes Gar, I know that will never happen. I know you’ve been spending the last few years trying to decide which of the 100s of potential owners you want to give the Coyotes to so that the team can stay in Phoenix.

But if, god forbid, you have to move Phoenix, you’ll probably have to move them East (to say, Quebec City? Quelle surprise!). This means you have to, right now, keep Columbus in the West. (Why Columbus? Because they’re still one of the newbie franchises around the board table.)

So, here’s how you solve the 8-team/7-team disparity, while revolutionizing your sport.

 Tweak #2 – Let Teams Pick Their Playoff Opponent 

Eastern Conference
Division 1Division 2
PhiladelphiaDetroit
WashingtonMontreal
New York RangersOttawa
New York IslandersBoston
New JerseyBuffalo
CarolinaToronto
Tampa BayPittsburgh
Florida
Western Conference
Division 1Division 2
ColumbusVancouver
WinnipegEdmonton
ChicagoCalgary
DallasColorado
NashvillePhoenix
St. LouisLos Angeles
MinnesotaAnaheim
San Jose

The four Conference teams with the next best records get the final four playoff spots and the top four teams select their first round opponent. Division winner with the best record picks first. Then the other Division winner. Then the second-place team with the best record. Then the other second-place team gets whoever’s left.  

In the second round, teams are reseeded 1-4 based on regular season performance, with 1 vs 4, 2 vs 3.

Think about the possibilities that result from having teams choose their playoff opponent.

First of all, winning a division or conference would suddenly matter quite a bit. The NHL would reward the best regular season teams by giving them some control – whether it be reduced travel or a weaker opponent. The 11 remaining conference teams would also have equal odds of becoming one of the final four playoff teams – eliminating the eight-team, seven-team divisional bias.

There would be added buzz in April and March as fans talk about potential matchups and seeding races. Instantly, rivalries would be created or renewed once selections are made. Pittsburgh and Philadelphia are mad because they don’t play each other as often? Well, problem solved – one can choose to play the other in the first round if they have a good regular season.

Gar, you could take this idea and create another television event, one that would be unique to the North American team sporting market. It would be a professional sports version of the NCAA’s Selection Sunday event. It would be just like the MMA or WWE, where opponents choose one another all the time because it always delivers a compelling storyline.

Mr. Commish, I offer this idea free of charge…although I wouldn’t mind having a division named after me. Or maybe I’ll just take a lifetime invite to the Winter Classic. It’s something we can negotiate later.

You’re welcome.

 THOUGHTS ON THE FLY

  • Isn’t this about the time that the Oilers start falling back to earth? And yet, they played a terrific road game against the Kings, giving up only 19 shots.
  • Same thing can be said about the Toronto Maple Leafs, who are amazingly in first place in the Eastern Conference right now. Then again, it’s been a long time since the Maple Leafs had two scoring lines going like they do right now (Joffrey Lupul-Tim Connolly-Phil Kessel; Clarke MacArthur-Mikael Grabovski-Nik Kulemin).
  • Watching the Blue Jackets-Leafs game, it looked like Leaf shooters were targeting Steve Mason’s blocker-side with great success (4 goals on 11 shots).
  • Speaking of Columbus, this is the earliest they’ve ever gotten to 10 losses. A coaching change is on the way, but Ken Hitchcock isn’t the solution. The Blue Jackets are not strong enough in goal or on defense to play the conservative style Hitchcock demands. At the same time, he hasn’t shown much success coaching younger players, and future of this team is in its prospects.
  • At the same time, anyone who is suggesting Craig Button is a viable candidate for the Blue Jackets front office should give their head a shake. He was a league-worst level GM in Calgary. Lest we forget the trading of J-S Giguere and Marc Savard for bags of pucks, the release of Martin St. Louis and the signing of Roman Turek to a mega-contract.
  • I wonder how folks are feeling about the Erik Johnson for Chris Stewart/Kevin Shattenkirk trade these days? Johnson looks a lot like Bryan McCabe – a big shooter, decent skater with poor defensive instincts. At least McCabe was physical – Johnson plays a Jay Boumeester-like soft defense. Things aren’t puppy dogs and ice cream in St. Louis though either where Chris Stewart has gotten off to a very slow start (2 goals and 3 points in 11 games). In fact, right now the best player might just be Kevin Shattenkirk, who has taken another step, evolving into an intelligent, two-way defenseman playing alongside Alex Pieterangelo.
  • CBC is counting suspensions and concussions this year so you don’t have to.
  • Colorado’s Paul Stastny has yet to score a point at home this year.
  • Mike Smith has been very good for the Coyotes thus far. Makes you wonder what went wrong in Tampa?
  • Speaking of Phoenix, another factor in their early season success is the play of defensemen David Schlemko and Oliver Ekman-Larsson. Ekman-Larsson is becoming a factor at both ends of the ice, and looks more and more like a player you build a team around. Schlemko is strong skater who doesn’t make mistakes with the puck.
  • Kudos to the Predators for inking Pekka Rinne to a 7-year/$49-million contract. Rinne is an elite goaltender, and having him signed long-term means Nashville has an important cornerstone in place. This probably means that one of Shea Weber or Ryan Suter is gone, especially since the Predators have some young depth at defense. It also wouldn’t surprise if Rinne’s $7 million annual salary becomes the defacto ceiling for Predator player contracts.
  • One last Predators note – while the media (particularly in Canada) portray Nashville as hockey backwater, it’s nice to see the team showing it’s willing to spend to build a contender. Predator fans have more trust in the franchise today than they did yesterday.
  • Chicago may just be the best team in the league right now. They’re scoring goals despite a terrible powerplay (8.7%, second-last in the league).
  • Yes, the Minnesota Wild are getting strong goaltending. No, they are not getting the production they’d like out of Marek Zidlicky. Zidlicky wasn’t very good last year either, and certainly doesn’t seem like a top-line defenseman anymore. That no-movement, modified no-trade clause in his last contract is starting to look like a big, heavy anchor around GM Chuck Fletcher’s neck.
Oct 062011
 

After more than a month of review, analysis, and rankings, it’s time to predict what will actually happen in the upcoming NHL season.

If you take all things into consideration, one thing becomes abundantly clear – parity. No team is very strong at each position (coach, goalie, defence, forward), and most teams are only a shade better or worse than another.

It looks like all the same teams that made the playoffs last year have a good chance of making it again this year. As we’ve discussed though, it’s rare that there’s so little change in the standings from year-to-year. Injuries therefore will be the biggest factor in determining who plays on in April and who doesn’t.

This time last year I predicted Boston as the Stanley Cup champion. Read on to find out this year’s predicted winner:

 Western Conference

  1. Vancouver 110-115 points
  2. Anaheim 105-110
  3. Nashville 100-105
  4. Chicago 100-105
  5. San Jose 90-95
  6. Detroit 90-95
  7. St. Louis 90-95
  8. Los Angeles 90-95
  9. Calgary 80-85
  10. Edmonton 75-80
  11. Colorado 70-75
  12. Dallas 70-75
  13. Phoenix 70-75
  14. Minnesota 65-70
  15. Columbus 55-60

Notes on the above:

  • Surprisingly, I have the Predators rated the best team in the Conference (based on very strong goaltending, defence and coaching scores). Nashville plays in a brutally tough division though. Vancouver plays in the weakest division in the league, and that should lead them to another 1st place showing.
  • I have Chicago, LA and Vancouver rated roughly the same. I don’t have a non-playoff team rated anywhere near the top-8 teams in the West.
  • Could be significantly better than they’re ranked: San Jose (if Niemi plays a full season like his half-season last year); Colorado (if the kids are healthy and Varlamov is a legit goalie); St. Louis (if Halak is healthy and the youth take the next step).
  • Could be significantly worse than they’re ranked: Anaheim (if any of their core gets hurt they have very little depth); Detroit (if Jimmy Howard is only adequate and age catches up to the team); Phoenix (if their goaltending is as weak as expected).
  • Could miss the playoffs: Their division is so tough, a slow start or injury troubles could kill St. Louis, Detroit, Chicago or Nashville’s playoff chances.
  • Could make the playoffs with some luck: Calgary (if Mikka Kiprusof has some magic left, Iginla stays healthy and they incredibly find some secondary scoring).

 Eastern Conference

  1. Washington 110-115
  2. Boston 105-110
  3. Pittsburgh 105-110
  4. Philadelphia 100-105
  5. Buffalo 100-105
  6. Montreal 90-95
  7. NY Rangers 90-95
  8. Tampa Bay 85-90
  9. New Jersey 80-85
  10. Toronto 80-85
  11. Carolina 75-80
  12. NY Islanders 70-75
  13. Winnipeg 70-75
  14. Ottawa 60-65
  15. Florida 55-60

Notes on the above:

  • Pittsburgh is the highest rated team in the Conference, but its close between them, Boston and Washington. Given the weakness of Washington’s division, the Capitals are likely to take first place.
  • I think the travel schedule of teams in the Southeast Division will have a negative impact on how those teams compete in the standings.  
  • Could be significantly better than they’re ranked: New York Rangers (depends how the kids progress and if Brad Richards performs); New Jersey (depends on Martin Brodeur, Adam Larsson and Mattias Tedenby); New York Islanders (if they get any goaltending they could be in the playoff mix).
  • Could be significantly worse than they’re ranked: Toronto (Corporately, Brian Burke has to get his team into the playoffs this year. The team is awfully young and inexperienced though); Montreal (if Carey Price goes down look out); Tampa Bay (similar to Montreal, they cannot afford a Dwayne Roloson injury).
  • Could miss the playoffs if things don’t gel right: Philadelphia (Chris Pronger’s injury prone, no one really knows what Jaromir Jagr will do and the kids are still kids).
  • Could make the playoffs with some luck: Carolina (great goaltending, okay defence and Eric Staal is an elite player).

Other fearless predictions for the upcoming season:

  • Conference Finals: Washington over Pittsburgh in the East; Chicago over Nashville in the West
  • Stanley Cup Final: Chicago over Washington
  • Chicago plays Vancouver in the playoffs for the fourth consecutive year.
  • Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin combine to play 120 games this year. Only one of them is available come playoff time.
  • With the Toronto Maple Leafs not making the playoffs, Brian Burke removes himself from the GM position and takes his place as President of the hockey club.
  • Phil Kessel is rumoured to be traded all year.
  • Jaromir Jagr is the most entertaining thing about the new season of HBO 24/7.
  • Lou Lamoriello retires at the end of the season. So does Martin Brodeur, Niklas Lidstrom, Teemu Selanne and Jaime Langenbrunner.
  • The Predators do not trade or re-sign Shea Weber, leaving him a UFARFA for 2012-13.
  • The NHL and NHLPA do not come to terms on a new Collective Bargaining Agreement.
  • The Philadelphia Phillies win the World Series over the New York Yankees. Derek Jeter, Jorge Posada and Mariano Rivera promptly retire.
  • Teemu Selanne, Jaromir Jagr and Jarome Iginla fail to score 30 goals.
  • James Neal, Taylor Hall, John Tavares and Tyler Seguin each score 30 goals.
  • A year after her divorce, a Christina Aguilera sex tape is leaked online.
  • The War Horse marks the beginning of the end of Steven Speilberg’s career as a director. It’s awful.
  • Will and Jada Pinkett-Smith do divorce after all.
  • Slash does not appear on stage with Guns N’ Roses at their Rock and Roll Hall of Fame induction ceremony.
  • The Toronto Blue Jays bid on Prince Fielder.
  • There is another recession.
  • Game of Thrones sets new viewing records for HBO.
  • Only Two Broke Girls, The New Girl and Prime Suspect earn a second TV season on a major US television network.
  • The Office without Steve Carrell is terrible.
  • Gabriel Landeskog is the highest scoring rookie. Nino Niederrater wins the Calder Trophy.
  • Alex Ovechkin wins the Art Ross and is the only player to crack 100 points.
  • Jonathan Toews wins the Hart.
  • Shea Weber wins the Norris.
  • Roberto Luongo wins the Vezina.
  • Tuukka Rask replaces Tim Thomas as Bruin starter at some point this season.
  • Shane Doan is traded from Phoenix at his request.
  • Jose Theodore is traded by Florida at the trade deadline.
  • It’s all but confirmed the Phoenix Coyotes will play in Quebec City starting in 2014.
  • The Blue Jackets’ Scott Arniel is the first coach fired. Ron Wilson is next, and whoever replaces Ron Wilson spurs the Leafs to a late-season playoff charge.
  • Coldplay’s new album is considered a disappointment.
  • Brendan Shanahan is forced (allegedly) to resign as NHL disciplinarian.
  • Teemu Selanne is hurt and can’t play in Winnipeg in December.
  • To the financial benefit of the NHL there is no NBA season.
Oct 052011
 

Yesterday it was the Eastern Conference goalies. Today, the Western Conference as we wrap up our positional previews.

A+ Grade

Nashville
Last Year (B-)

A stellar playoff performance proved Pekka Rinne is more than just a product of an elite defensive team. He’s the Conference’s best goaltender right now. If injured, Anders Lindback is a more-than-capable replacement.

A- Grade

Anaheim
Last Year (B)

Vertigo derailed what was shaping up to be a Vezina-worthy season for Jonas Hiller. Symptom-free, he’s an elite goaltender. Dan Ellis is an okay backup in the short-term, but any injury to Hiller and the Ducks are in trouble.

B+ Grade

Vancouver
Last Year (B+)

Despite two very inconsistent post-seasons, Roberto Luongo has been a great regular season goaltender. In fact, it could be argued Luongo has something to prove this year, which may mean trouble for opposing shooters. Cory Schneider is a strong backup and can fill in admirably for long stretches. He may be required to do so if Luongo falters again.

Calgary
Last Year (B)

Miika Kiprusoff is starting on the downside of his career, but he’s still capable of Vezina-worthy numbers. The team has high hopes for Henrik Karlsson, who might just be the most talented backup Kiprusoff’s ever had behind him on the depth chart. Then again, we are talking about a list that includes Curtis McElhinney, Vesa Toskala, an-end-of-his-career Curtis Joseph, Jamie McLennan, Phillppe Sauve, Brian Boucher, Roman Turek, Dany Sabourin, Goofy, Greg Goldberg, Lisa Simpson, Lanny McDonald’s moustache, Snidley Whiplash’s moustache and Paul Brandt.   

B Grade

St. Louis
Last Year (B+)

It was a mixed debut for Jaroslav Halak in St. Louis, as injuries and inconsistency dogged his first season with the Blues. There were enough good moments though to confirm he is no Habs one-season wonder (aka Steve Penney). Ben Bishop and Brian Elliott competed for the backup role in camp, with Elliott winning the role. Both are significant downgrades from Halak.

Los Angeles
Last Year (C+)

There is an embarrassment of riches at this position in Los Angeles, with Jonathan Quick playing extremely well last year, and Jonathan Bernier remaining one of the elite goalie prospects in the league. The Kings will move up this list as these two continue to develop.

B- Grade

Chicago Last Year (B-)

Marty Turco was a Christina Hendricks-sized bust last year, but the emergence of Corey Crawford effectively saved the Blackhawks season. Crawford was very good against the Canucks in the first round last year, and goes into this season as the defacto starter. The backup role is up for grabs, with former badboy Ray Emery competing with prospect Alexander Salak. Emery looked good with the Ducks down the stretch, while Salak toiled in Europe after a good North American showing in 2009-10. Neither were all that special during training camp. (Ed. note: The Blackhawks signed Ray Emery a couple of days ago, and sent Alexander Salak to Rockford in the AHL. – J.J.)

Dallas
Last Year (C-)

Kari Lehtonen brushed aside his injury past and was the Stars’ MVP, almost carrying the team into the playoffs. He’ll be asked to do even more on a weaker Dallas team this year. Andrew Raycroft is serviceable as the backup.

C+ Grade

Colorado
Last Year (C+)

Semyon Varlamov was a walking band-aid for the Capitals last year, and has yet to play 30 NHL games in a season. There’s no question he’s talented, but durability is a legitimate concern. The Capitals have been a good team as well, so it will be interesting to see what his numbers look like playing for a young Avalanche team. Jean-Sebastien Giguere is a swell guy who’s clearly reaching the end of his career performance-wise. His last two years in Toronto were pedestrian.

San Jose
Last Year (C)

After a horrible start to the season, Antti Niemi was sensational from January until the end of the season. He is unorthodox, and his playoff numbers were disappointing, but when hot he’s one of the better goalies in the league.  Antero Nittymaki is out for 12 weeks meaning Thomas Griess gets a chance to be the backup. Griess has #1 goalie potential.

C Grade

Detroit
Last Year (B)

Brilliant in his rookie season, Jimmy Howard was hit by the sophomore slump for much of last year. He picked up his game in the post-season though, and seems destined to be a Chris Osgood-level NHL starter. Ty Conklin is the journeyman backup.

Edmonton
Last Year (D+)

Devan Dubnyk was Ken Wregget-esque at times last year, giving an overmatched Oilers team a chance to win. His best days are ahead – the question remains how good of a goaltender he can be. Having completed his jail time, Nikolai Khabibulin enters the year looking to redeem his reputation.

Minnesota
Last Year (C)

Nicklas Backstrom had a bounce-back year between the pipes for a very pedestrian Wild team. He’s a second-tier NHL starter. Josh Harding missed all of last season due to injury, got hurt in training camp and at 27 sees his career at a crossroads. 

C- Grade

Phoenix
Last Year (A)

Coyotes fans are about to learn how just how hard it is to win in the NHL without elite goaltending. Mike Smith and Jason LaBarbera are solid backup goalies at best.

Columbus
Last Year (C+)

Chin up Blue Jackets fans – whereas the Steve Mason era has been a nightmare, the Mark Derkanich era, whenever it starts, has some promise. In the meantime, Curtis Sanford (not this Sanford, the other one) is also in the mix.

Sep 262011
 

What do Michael Ryder and Ashton Kutcher have in common?

Both have previously enjoyed success in supporting roles, and now both are being asked to replace bigger stars that left town after difficult contract negotiations.

It’s doubtful either will make anyone forget who they’re replacing anytime soon.

Last Monday, more than 27 million viewers tuned in to see how Two and a Half Men would replace Charlie Sheen with Ashton Kutcher.

For those that missed it but wondered how it went, allow me to summarize: blandly juvenile.

Granted, juvenile jokes and innuendo are a big reason why Two and a Half Men is the most popular sitcom on television.

But there’s no question the show’s charm had a lot to do with Charlie Sheen playing off his real-life reputation.

Ashton Kutcher brought a different energy to the season premiere. He was Kelso 2.0 – written to be smarter but just as much the same boy-man character who stole laughs and struggled to keep a straight face on That 70’s Show.

Yep, like Sheen, Kutcher is essentially playing himself. That, however, doesn’t make him interesting. Without the sub-text Sheen’s real-life exploits brought to the sitcom, Kutcher isn’t a strong enough actor to create an interesting character on his own. And he’s struggled throughout his career when given opportunities to play a lead role.

Meanwhile, Michael Ryder is essentially the only off-season acquisition the Dallas Stars made to replace Brad Richards. He’s also struggled when asked to play a lead role (see Montreal career), and enjoyed great, Stanley Cup success as a top-nine forward in Boston.

How are he and the rest of the Stars forwards shaping up for the 2011-12 season?

Let’s get to ranking the Western Conference forward groups:

A- Grade

Anaheim
Last Year (B+)

For the second year in a row we have a surprise on top of the list. This result is almost entirely due to three things: Corey Perry’s emergence as the Hart Trophy winner; Bobby Ryan’s development into a near-elite player; and Teemu Selanne’s incredible season as a 287-year old (matched only historically by the 2000 year old man ). The first line of Ryan-Ryan Getzlaf-Perry is the best in the league. Like last year though there are real depth issues beyond the top two lines, with Andrew Cogliano skating like Todd Marchant, but in no way capable of replacing the latter’s defensive abilities. If Selanne plays like his age, and none of the youth (Kyle Palmieri in particular) step up into supporting roles, they move down this list quickly.

B+ Grade

San Jose
Last Year (A-)

Will battle with Los Angeles all year for the title of strongest team down the middle. Martin Havlat also represents a speed upgrade over Dany Heatley, although he’s injury prone and beyond him the right side is fairly punchless.  In fact, like Anaheim this is a team with scoring issues in the bottom six, particularly on the wings. It’s a gritty bunch though, and one that looks tailored for the post-season.

Vancouver
Last Year (A-)

Yet another team at the top of this list with an elite core of scoring talent but some questionable depth. Recently, a James Mirtle piece argued how the Toronto Maple Leafs needed more balanced scoring, as their top four forwards provided 53% of forward goals last season. For the Canucks, the Sedins, Ryan Kesler and Alex Burrows provided 58.7% of Vancouver’s forward goals last year. That’s a lot of pressure on a few players. With Kesler and Mason Raymond’s injuries clouding their potential impact this season, Marco Sturm and Mikael Samuelsson will have to pick up some of the offensive slack. The third line (Chris Higgins, Manny Malholtra, Jannik Hansen) has the makings of one of the better shutdown lines in the league.

Detroit
Last Year (B+)

Strong down the middle with Pavel Datsyuk (maybe the best player in the game), Henrik Zetterberg, Valterri Filppula and Darren Helm. They could really use some help on the wings though, as Dan Cleary and Johan Franzen (despite his playoff scoring reputation) are more appropriate options for a strong second line. The wildcard is Jiri Hudler, who was a George-Lucas-messing-with-the-original-Star-Wars-trilogy-again scale disappointment last season. This is a quick, intelligent group of forwards.

Los Angeles
Last Year (A-)

As discussed above, Anze Kopitar, Mike Richards and Jarrett Stoll give the Kings arguably the strongest set of centremen in the league. The acquisition of Simon Gagne was a wonderful under-the-radar move. His play improved exponentially as the season went on last year in Tampa Bay and he’s shown previous chemistry playing alongside Richards. Kyle Clifford and Brad Richardson are youngsters providing grit on the third line, while Ethan Moreau will try to extend his career as a veteran 4th line presence. Really, if Dustin Penner can demonstrate any kind of scoring consistency, this could be the Conference’s best group of forwards.

B Grade

St. Louis
Last Year (C+)

On paper this a solid, still improving two-way group that might have greater depth than some of the teams ranked higher. While they lack an elite point producer, they could legitimately see seven 20-goal scorers this year (Patrik Berglund, David Backes, Andy McDonald, T.J. Oshie, David Perron, Alex Steen and Chris Stewart). Jason Arnott and Jamie Langenbrunner bring Stanley Cup experience.

Chicago
Last Year (A+)

Make no mistake – the core of the Blackhawks forward brigade (Jonathan Toews, Patrick Sharp, David Bolland, Patrick Kane and Marian Hossa) is good enough to sit atop this ranking. It’s the complimentary players that are still very much a work in progress. Andrew Brunette is a good addition to help the powerplay, but at this point zambonis move faster. Meanwhile, none of Michael Frolik, Viktor Stalberg or Rostislav Olesz has shown any sort of consistency in their young careers. If one of them finds “it” offensively, the ‘Hawks move up this list.

Columbus
Last Year (C-)

Things are looking up in Ohio as Rick Nash finally has some talent to partner with. Jeff Carter and Vaclav Prospal bring much needed scoring depth to the Blue Jacket attack and Ryan Johansen is an elite prospect (although he may be brought along slowly).  The third and fourth lines are inexperienced but play hard. R.J. Umberger and Antoine Vermette are decent second-line talents.

B- Grade

Edmonton
Last Year (C+)

The future is very bright in Edmonton, but it’s not here quite yet. Taylor Hall looks like a future Maurice Richard candidate and Jordan Eberle looks like a future 30-goal scorer. Alex Hemsky is in his contract year, and seems poised for a career year. Then again, that’s said every year, and he always finds a way to get hurt. Adding Ryan Smyth and Eric Belanger addressed two weaknesses (leadership and face-off prowess), but it’s Ben Eager who represents the most important off-season move. Together with Darcy Hordichuk, the Oilers have size that can contribute at the NHL level for the first time in at least two seasons. This group could surprise.

C+ Grade

Minnesota
Last Year (C)

It’s a career crossroads for Dany Heatley. Granted, he played hurt last March and throughout the Sharks playoff run, but a lack of effort has been associated with the former 50-goal scorer for a few seasons now. (You know who else you could say that about? Everyone involved in HBO’s Entourage.) Meanwhile, a healthy Pierre-Marc Bouchard and greater opportunity for Devin Setoguchi give the Wild their best top-six forwards in franchise history.

C Grade

Colorado
Last Year (B+)

Last year’s rankings warned of a potential sophomore slump for this group, and boy did they deliver in that regard. There’s still some real promise here though. Gabriel Landeskog was a terrific draft pick, adding some Brendan Morrow-esque qualities to a young, finesse-based lineup. The question is health as Milan Hejduk is older than some countries; Peter Mueller missed much of last season; and David Jones is a band-aid player. If this group can stay healthy they climb these rankings. 

Dallas
Last Year (C+)

What was a solid top-six is now weaker thanks to Richard’s departure. Jamie Benn will likely shift into the centre ice position, and Ryder will be given every chance to cement himself as a go-to goal scorer on the club. He’s streaky though, which leaves Loui Eriksson the only natural goal-scorer on the roster. Vernon Fiddler and Adam Burish are decent third-line grinders, but there’s very little offense in the bottom-six.

Calgary
Last Year (C+)

The Flames may slip another grade before the start of the season if Jarome Iginla continues to have back troubles. Those back troubles are really no surprise though – he’s been carrying this team for a long time. There’s some nice grit here, and they’ll remain a tough team to play against. But scoring is going to be a struggle. That’s why there’s a lot of pressure on Mikael Backlund to evolve into an impact offensive player this year.

Nashville
Last Year (C-)

With all due respect to Martin Erat, there really isn’t a legitimate first line player on the Predators roster. That being said, this is a team filled with forwards who do the “little things” right, and they may just be the best defensive group collectively in the NHL. In many ways Predators forwards are similar to Calgary as a group, although younger and without an Iginla to build around. Keeping the comparison in mind, Colin Wilson is Nashville’s Mikael Backlund. 

C- Grade

Phoenix
Last Year (C)

You know you’re in trouble when Ray Whitney is the most dangerous forward on the roster. The Coyotes may have the worst group of centres in the NHL, and that’s counting Kyle Turris, who is (inexplicably) holding out. I imagine Turris asking for more money has gone about as well as this. How much longer does Shane Doan really have to play in the desert?

Sep 152011
 

The other day, we looked at the Eastern Conference bluelines. Today, let’s look at the Western Conference defence rankings.

A Grade

Chicago
Last Year (A+)

A slip in the ratings heading into 2011-12, as neither Duncan Keith nor Brent Seabrook were quite as good last year as they were the season before. Meanwhile, Nick Hjalmarsson also disappointed. However, Nick Leddy looks like a future top-4 stalwart, and there’s some veteran depth now with the signings of Steve Montador, Sean O’Donnell and Sami Lepisto.

Los Angeles
Last Year (A-)

This is assuming Drew Doughty signs. Otherwise they drop a grade. Doughty struggled with some injuries last year, but he remains a perennial Norris Trophy candidate. Jack Johnson’s plus/minus was awful (-21), but he played well in Doughty’s absence and looks like a legitimate first pairing guy. The rest of the group is an average mix of youth and experience, with Matt Green being the best defensive guy on the team.

Nashville
Last Year (B+)

It should come as no surprise that the three teams with two top-level defencemen on the roster are all ranked at the top of this list. Shea Weber and Ryan Suter round out the trifecta of excellence, and quite easily could be the best twosome of the lot. Jonathon Blum and Ryan Ellis offer some young offensive promise, with Blum in particular looking ready to play 18 minutes a night. Kevin Klein (not this Kevin Kline) and Francis Bouillon are serviceable.

B+ Grade

Phoenix
Last Year (B-)

The Coyote blueline is a veteran heavy group that represents the only real strength the team has heading into the season. Keith Yandle was an offensive force last year, and it will be interesting to see if he can repeat his Norris-worthy campaign. Oliver Ekman-Larsson is the future and will be given more minutes this season.

B Grade

San Jose
Last Year (B+)

Listening to some people, you’d think Brent Burns was the second coming of Scott Niedermayer. He isn’t. Instead, he’s a solid, 40+-point defenceman who can take pressure off Dan Boyle and give the team one of the league’s better top-fours (Boyle/Murray, Burns/Vlasic). Speaking of which, put me down in favour of Picklesnake.

Detroit
Last Year (A-)

Sorry, but Ian White isn’t Brian Rafalski, and the Red Wing defence is weaker due to the latter’s retirement. Niklas Kronwall played the best hockey of his career last year, but the franchise could really use one of Jonathan Ericsson and Jakub Kindl to emerge. Is Nick Lidstrom the greatest defenseman of all time? Discuss.

B- Grade

Anaheim
Last Year (C)

A solid mix of veterans and youth, although the bottom pairing looks quite weak. Taking nothing away from Nick Lidstrom’s historic year as a 40-year old, veteran Lubomir Visnovsky also found himself hooked up to the rejuvenation machine last season. At 35, Visnovsky was deserving of Norris consideration. Toni Lydman is the stabilizing presence, as the Ducks play a lot better with him in the lineup. No one likes to predict a sophomore slump, but it wouldn’t surprise if Cam Fowler regressed a bit in year two.

St. Louis
Last Year (B)

To be honest, who knows exactly what to expect from the Blues defence this year. It’s awfully young and full of promise, kind of like Lindsay Lohan once was (side note: how creepy is it that someone sat down and made that video?). Anyways, we all know how LiLo turned out. That being said, Alex Pietrangelo seems ready to become a top-10 NHL defenceman, and Roman Polak is one of the better defensive players in the league. If Kevin Shattenkirk and Nikita Nikitin can find consistency, this can become an elite group.

Vancouver
Last Year (B+)

They may have only lost Christian Ehroff, but Vancouver’s defence doesn’t seem as deep heading into this season. For one, it’s hard to believe Kevin Bieksa will repeat his career-best performance last year. Similarly, Keith Ballard is a shadow of the player he once was, and would probably benefit from playing on a different team, under a new coach. The Canucks are excited about Chris Tanev and the coach loves Aaron Rome, but neither are ready or capable of playing big minutes. No, the only way Vancouver’s defence moves up these rankings this year is if Alex Edler takes the next step in his development.

C+ Grade

Calgary
Last Year (B)

Let’s just all admit that Jay Bouwmeester is the new Brett Hedican – a beautiful skating defenceman who is average in all other aspects of the game. Anton Babchuk and Chris Butler have puck-moving talent, and add some speed to what was a statuesque Flames blueline. Speaking of statues, Scott Hannan replaces Robyn Regehr as the “Calgary Flame most likely to be passed by an opponent on the way to a scoring chance.”

C Grade

Minnesota
Last Year (C)

I’d be surprised if Wild employees, let alone fans or hockey followers, could name the starting six defenceman who will suit up for the team opening night. With Minnesota moving towards a more offensive approach, Marek Zidlicky could see a jump in production. The philosophical change should also cement roster spots for Marco Scandella and Jared Spurgeon – two decent skating players with puck-moving potential. Nick Schultz is a warrior and underrated.

Dallas
Last Year (D)

Make no mistake, if two of Sheldon Souray, Brad Lukowich, Adam Pardy or Mark Fistric play together at any point in the NHL this year, that pairing will be the worst in the entire league. That the franchise decided to give Sheldon Souray a shot should tell you this will be a rebuilding year in Dallas. Souray wasn’t very good in the AHL last year, and his last regular NHL action was roughly two years ago. The top-two pairings are okay, with Alex Goligoski the most creative, Stephane Robidas and Trevor Daley the most reliable, and Nick Grossman the best defender.

Columbus
Last Year (C+)

They added James Wisniewski, you say. The rest of the top-six is arguably league-worst, I say.

Colorado
Last Year (B-)

They could move back up the standings based on two developments: One, Erik Johnson figures it out and takes the next step (and the scuttlebutt is he’s been a horse preparing in the off-season). Two, Jan Hejda proves it wasn’t a Blue Jacket mirage and he really is one of the better defensive defencemen in the league. We’ll see. Sadly, the rest of the Colorado defence is young and questionable.

C- Grade

Edmonton
Last Year (C-)

There’s nothing wrong with loading up on talented offensive players through the draft. At some point though, the Oilers are going to have to figure out that preventing goals is another way to win games. Ryan Whitney was putting in a team MVP-esque performance last year before he got hurt, and talk is he’s hurt himself again in the off-season. Without Whitney, the Oiler blueline is the worst in the NHL. Theo Peckham is a beast though.

Sep 072011
 

As discussed in yesterday’s post, changing a coach at mid-season, rather than in the off-season, seems to have a greater positive impact on team performance.

Examining all the coaching moves since the start of the 2005-06 season reveals some other interesting tidbits:

  1. Only four coaches hired at mid-season led their teams to a worse performance than the coach they replaced:
    • 2009-10 Philadelphia: Peter Laviolette (.535) replaced John Stevens (.540). One could argue these are almost equal results.
    • 2008-09 Tampa Bay: Rick Tocchet (.397 winning percentage) replaced Barry Melrose (.438). Funny how Melrose was ridiculed for his performance returning to the bench, while Rick Tocchet demonstrated himself to be just as incompetent.
    • 2008-09 Montreal: Bob Gainey (.500) replaced Guy Carbonneau (.583)
    • 2005-06 Los Angeles: John Torchetti (.417) replaced Andy Murray (.564)

  2. The best improvement by a coach hired in the off-season:
    • 2009-10 Phoenix: Dave Tippett (+28 points after replacing Wayne Gretzky)
    • 2009-10 Colorado: Joe Sacco (+27 points after replacing Tony Granato)
    • 2010-11 Tampa Bay: Guy Boucher (+23 points after replacing Rick Tocchet)
    • 2007-08 Boston: Claude Julien (+18 points after replacing Dave Lewis). You’re not likely to see any of the four names replaced on this list named as NHL head coaches ever again.

  3. The worst performance by teams after hiring a coach in the off-season:
    • 2008-09 Colorado: Tony Granato (-27 points after replacing Joel Quennville)
    • 2010-11 New Jersey: John Maclean + Jacques Lemaire (-24 points after replacing Jacques Lemaire)
    • 2009-10 Edmonton: Pat Quinn (-23 points after replacing Craig MacTavish)
    • 2006-07 Los Angeles: Marc Crawford (-21 points after replacing Andy Murray + John Torchetti)

One final note – for all the talk that Pat Quinn’s coaching time had passed after that brutal 62-point performance for the Oilers, it’s worth noting Tom Renney led an stronger Edmonton team to exactly the same number of points the following season.

Here now are the coaching rankings for the Western Conference:

 A Grade

Mike Babcock – Detroit
Last Year (A)

The best coach in the game? Probably. The demise of the Red Wings has been increasingly predicted over the last few years, and yet it never seems to actually happen. Credit the coach, who knows exactly the right buttons to push to motivate each player.

Barry Trotz – Nashville
Last Year (B+)

Nashville fell a sniper short of upsetting Vancouver in the second round. That’s not Trotz’s fault, who clearly outcoached Alain Vigneault during the series. He’s among the best in the league.

B+ Grade

Joel Quenneville – Chicago
Last Year (B+)

Getting the Blackhawks – a team gutted by so many moves in the offseason that the players probably needed name tags in training camp – into the playoffs last year was an underrated coaching accomplishment.

Alain Vigneault – Vancouver
Last Year (B-)

You coach a team into the Cup Final you get to move up these rankings. Yet, he still has an inexplicable man-crush on Aaron Rome; has turned once-promising Keith Ballard into an ECHL’er; and is at least partially to blame for the unsportsmanlike attitude that permeates Canuck culture. Last year was likely the pinnacle of Vigneault’s coaching career.

B Grade

Randy Carlyle – Anaheim
Last Year (B)

Carlyle headed into last season at a crossroads, with whispers of his having lost the room heard around the league. Instead, the coach and team rallied to a playoff spot. He did a great job not only integrating Cam Fowler into the lineup, but protecting him and his confidence.

Dave Tippet – Phoenix
Last Year (B)

Performed another coaching miracle getting the Coyotes into the playoffs last year, but faces his greatest challenge trying to do that without Ilya Bryzgalov in 2011-12.

B- Grade

Tom Renney – Edmonton
Last Year (B-)

The Oilers featured stronger systems play and a better dressing room atmosphere last year, but failed to improve in the standings. A terrific coaching “teacher,” at some point Edmonton brass will have to ask themselves if Renney has the chops to take a team far into the playoffs. That’s a question that’s still a few seasons off though.

C+ Grade

Terry Murray – Los Angeles (FIRED WATCH)
Last Year (C+)

Let’s make it two years in a row for Murray to find his name on the “Fired Watch.” Expectations haven’t been this high for the Kings since Gretzky was in town. An adequate bench boss, he hasn’t coached a team out of the first round since the Flyers made the Stanley Cup in 1997.

Todd McLellan – San Jose
Last Year (C)

Won a classic series against the Detroit Red Wings (and coach Mike Babcock) and got his team to the Conference Final for the second year in a row. And yet, he still hasn’t really helped the team shed its underachieving label.

C Grade

Davis Payne – St. Louis (FIRED WATCH)
Last Year (C)

With the Blues expected to rise in the standings this year the heat is on Payne, who is also in the final year of his contract. Injuries crippled the team last year, but St. Louis was also inconsistent and prone to weak first period efforts.

Brent Sutter – Calgary (FIRED WATCH)
Last Year (C)

Still looking for the same success in the NHL that he had coaching junior hockey. He seemed a bit more flexible handling his roster once brother Darryl was out of the mix. Still, with a veteran-laden squad like the Flames, it’s playoffs or bust.

Joe Sacco – Colorado
Last Year (C+)

Sacco, heralded as a great communicator after his first year as coach, had a tough second season. The team looked unprepared at times and Sacco’s seemingly random benching of players was odd (Chris Stewart was a healthy scratch before being dealt).

Scott Arniel – Columbus (FIRED WATCH)
Last Year (C)

You know what the definition of a square-peg and round-hole problem is? Meshing Arniel’s puck possession gameplan with the Blue Jackets roster last year. It didn’t work. The personnel is stronger this year in Columbus, so now it’s up to Arniel to deliver some results.

Glen Gulutzan – Dallas
Last Year (N/A)

Another rookie head coach, this time taking over from “The Hair” (aka Marc Crawford). Despite team assurances, it does look like Gulutzan’s price-tag (ie. cheap) played a part in his being hired over other coaching options (Craig MacTavish, Ken Hitchcock, etc). Gulutzan has had an impressive minor league coaching career, particularly in the ECHL. You know who else had a pretty impressive ECHL coaching career? John Brophy, who’s actually in the ECHL Hall of Fame. Just sayin’…

Mike Yeo – Minnesota
Last Year (N/A)

Yeo takes over from Todd Richards, promising to bring offensive hockey to the Wild. The former Penguins powerplay coach is young (39) and, well, eager, as his visit to Finland to meet with Mikko Koivu can attest. He only has one season of head coaching experience though, and the ditches along the NHL highway are full of wannabe assistants who couldn’t make it as head coaches.

May 142011
 

Eastern Conference Final

Boston (2) vs Tampa Bay (5)
Season Series: Boston (3-1)

What we learned in Round 2

Boston: There is offense to be found in the Bruin attack. It’s name is David Krejci. Also, that Boston remains an incredibly difficult opponent to generate offense against. Tim Thomas is lurking in the Conn Smyth Trophy weeds.

Tampa Bay: That the team’s 1-3-1 style has effectively neutralized their greatest weakness – a lack of defensive mobility. This Lightning team is playing as well as Montreal defensively right now, but they have the game-breakers the Habs lack to take advantage offensively. Tampa Bay was the most impressive team in the second round.

Pertinent Questions

Boston: Can this team get to the Cup final without their most important forward, Patrice Bergeron? A concussion has knocked him out of the lineup, meaning the Bruins head into the Conference Finals with little skill at centre beyond Krejci. Bergeron will be replaced by Tyler Seguin, and Boston will need him to make a powerplay impact. Success for the rookie is by no means guaranteed.

Tampa Bay: Has all momentum been lost after a 10-day layoff? This team hasn’t played since May 4th. At the time, the Lightning were firing on all cylinders. Dwayne Roloson had turned himself into Johnny Bower 2.0; the defense was holding together and offensively the team was getting contributions from three lines. It will be interesting to see if Tampa Bay can find their game again quickly.

Key Injuries

It’s unclear if Boston’s Bergeron will return at all from his concussion. Tampa expects Simon Gagne (concussion) to start Game 1.

Quick Decisions

Coaching: Tampa Bay. (Guy Boucher put on a clinic on and off-ice against the Capitals in round 2. His post-game comments (specifically portraying the Lightning as underdogs) were masterful, while his gameplay completely neutralized Washington’s attack.)

Goaltending: Boston. (Close thanks to Roloson’s terrific play this post-season. However, the Tampa goalie is a mess when he plays the puck.)

Defense: Boston. (Both teams rely a lot on their top-two pairings. Chara rebounded with an excellent second round against Philly. He’s the best defensemen in the series. However, Eric Brewer is playing the best hockey of his life right now. Again it’s close.)

Scoring: Tampa Bay. (Even if the clock strikes midnight on the scoring exploits of Sean Bergenheim, Steve Downie and Teddy Purcell, the likes of Martin St. Louis, Vincent Lecavalier and Steve Stamkos are better than anything Boston can counter with.)

Special Teams: Tampa Bay. (The Lightning have had excellent special teams all year. While Boston’s powerplay scored twice against the Flyers, it’s still painful to watch.)

Prediction

Boston in 6

*****

Western Conference Final

Vancouver (1) vs. San Jose (2)
Season Series: Vancouver (3-1)

What we learned in round 2

Vancouver: That the argument that Ryan Kesler should be a Hart Trophy candidate holds water and that pre-season talk of him being the team captain was also pretty astute. Two rounds into the post-season, he’s the most important skater on the team. While this was learned long ago, Roberto Luongo’s still prone to crippling mental lapses.

San Jose: That there remains a lot of misinformation about this group being chokers out there. This makes it back-to-back final four appearances for San Jose. Joe Thornton seems to have gone to the Steve Yzerman school of leadership, as his career and reputation mirrors that of the former Red Wings captain before Detroit’s 1997 Cup victory. Thornton was the best player on the ice for most of Game 7 against Detroit.

Pertinent Questions

Vancouver: It’s been the pertinent question the entire post-season – where will the secondary scoring come from? Kesler was in on 11 of the 14 goals Vancouver scored in the second round. If that happens again, the Canucks likely lose this series. The Sedins especially have to find their way on the scoresheet.

San Jose: How much longer can AnttiNiemi backstop his team’s to victory? The win versus Detroit makes it six straight playoff round victories for the unorthodox goalie. Incredibly out of position at times, he’s earning himself a Fuhr-esque reputation for letting in soft goals, but shutting the door when it counts. On paper though the Canucks are the most talented offensive team he has faced in this post-season.

Key Injuries

Vancouver’s Mikael Samuelsson hasn’t had a great post-season, and he’s questionable for Game 1 with a leg injury. Ryan Clowe got his bell rung in the Detroit series, and will play the Conference Final injured for the Sharks. That’s a break for the Canucks.

Quick Decisions

Coaching: San Jose. (That’s two straight playoff victories against Mike Babcock for the Sharks’ Todd Mclellan. Hard to credit Vigneault for winning the Nashville series, since Barry Trotz and the Predators dictated how the games were played.)

Goaltending: Even. (Both goalies are frustratingly inconsistent. Luongo has the higher ceiling of ability but Niemi has previous post-season success in his favour.)

Defense: Vancouver. (Dan Boyle is the best defenseman in the series but the Canucks blueline is a lot deeper. This might be the biggest advantage Vancouver has in the series.)

Scoring: San Jose. (This should be even, but the Canucks really struggled on the attack against Nashvile. San Jose’s three lines can really forecheck and create scoring chances.)

Special Teams: Vancouver. (San Jose’s penalty kill was good for most of the series against Detroit, great in Game 7. Their powerplay however has disappointed all spring. Vancouver’s been solid in both areas, however they’ve struggled with the man advantage at home, scoring just a single goal so far.)

Prediction

San Jose in 6 (Editor’s note: Anyone want to bet Tom on this? – J.J.)

*****

Now a word for the dearly departed:

Detroit Red Wings: Injuries to the team’s best players seemed to catch up to the Red Wings, especially when the team’s “young guns,” particularly Jiri Hudler and Valtteri Filppula, struggled with consistency. Most of the talk this off-season will revolve around Nick Lidstrom’s future, but after the season he had, it’s tough to see him walk away at this point. Injecting some youth into the defense will probably be the team’s priority. However, the team’s offensive stars aren’t getting any younger either. The heart was willing against San Jose, but the ability of the Red Wings franchise these days seems to be in slow decline.

Nashville Predators: It’s quite simple – if the Predators had had just one consistent, B-level offensive player in their lineup, the Canucks series would have gone seven games. In fact, the series result itself may have been different. That’s how well Nashville played against Vancouver. If the Music City team can find a scoring forward, this team could be top-4 in the Conference next year. Resigning Shea Weber is also a must.

Philadelphia Flyers: LIke the Red Wings, injuries, particularly the loss of Chris Pronger, handicapped the Flyers in round two. Yes, team goaltending is the hot-button issue, but without Pronger the Flyers defense was nothing but average. Expect the Flyers to tinker on the back-end, and roll into 2011-12 committed to Sergei Bobrovsky as their number one goalie.

Washington Capitals: Surprising to see how gleeful some folks were to see the Capitals knocked out of the second round. The Capitals are a team at the crossroads, and it’s clear their core group of players aren’t good enough to get the franchise to the next level. Nick Backstrom was awful this post-season, while Alex Semin has been bad two playoffs in a row. Alex Ovechkin has not made any adjustments to his game to
make himself more difficult to defend against. Mike Green has been the team’s worst defender in back-to-back playoffs. One of these players wont be back. Expect Green to be dealt, since there’s more demand for offensive defensemen than one-shot scoring wingers (Semin).

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